February 2, 2010 Issue 29
 
Journey with DWM to
What's Next

 

 Some economists say "up" and some say "down". The truth is, no one knows the future. But affluent, enlightened investors recognize that DWM strategies perform in up markets and protect in down markets. Regardless of what the future holds, with DWM, savvy investors are ready for what's next.

 Business: The Book of Jobs
 

steve jobs

Last week, Steve Jobs and APPLE unveiled their latest product, the iPad.  It's a thin, tablet shaped device with a ten-inch touch screen that will go on sale in March for $499-$829.  "It's so much more intimate and so much more capable than a smart phone," said Jobs in the presentation.

 

In 1984 Apple launched the Macinstosh, 2001 brought out the iPod and in 2007 the iPhone was introduced.  Each product excels at using existing ideas and taking them to new level.  The iPad tablet is expected to transform not just one industry, but three; computing, telecoms and media.

 

The iPad is, in essence, a giant iPhone on steroids.  Its large screen will make it an attractive e-reader and video player, and it will also inherit a vast array of games and other software from iPhone. The iPad will probably accelerate the shift away from printed matter towards digital content.  Mr. Jobs has struck deals with leading publishers such as Penguin and Simon & Shuster.  According to the Economist, newspaper and magazine publishers are also thrilled by the tablets' potential.  They hope that the device will allow them to generate revenues from readers and advertisers.  The iPad, with its color screen and integration with Apple's online stores, could make downloading books, newspapers, and magazines as easy and popular as downloading music.

 

Apple hopes that the iPad will also become a popular gaming machine and designed the machine so that many of the games among the 140,000 apps available for other Apple products will run on it right away.  While this presents a great opportunity for the developers of apps, there are some constraints.  The iPad, like the iPhone, doesn't allow applications to run in the background so users can't perform several activities at once-as they're accustomed to on a laptop. Even so, the Apple App Store Economy is a huge business, where developers typically pay Apple 30% of the revenue they earn on their apps.  Now that Apple is dominating the digital downloading business with its iTunes and earning $75 million each year from its apps, it seems very likely that it might soon be dominating the media download business as well.

 

One primary source for this article was the Economist  magazine,  click here:

 

 

 

 

Bailout: Banks Under  Fire
 

 

 where's my bailout 

 

Taxpayers in America and across the world are not happy with bankers.  The Wall Street Journal reported that the unofficial theme of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week was "First, kill all the bankers."

 

The scorn poured on the industry is a sign of a mounting international backlash against the financial sector.  People are not happy about the banks' role in the financial crisis and their behavior in its aftermath.  40% of Americans think that Banks and Investment Companies most benefited from the Bailout.  Second was major corporations and third, wealthy individuals.  In Davos, French President Nicholas Sarkozy told the conference, "Their behavior will no longer be tolerated.  Those who contribute to destroying jobs and wealth while earning a lot of money are morally indefensible."

 

 

goldman

 

A recent episode of "Mad Money" on CNBC featured the Lloyd Blankfein (CEO of Goldman Sachs) piñata.  Hung from the studio ceiling to symbolize the beating that bankers have been taking lately, the effigy rained down fake gold coins when split apart.  Rolling Stone had an excellent article in July about Goldman Sachs.  They put it this way "If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain; an extremely unfortunate loophole in the system of Western democratic capitalism.   Capitalism never foresaw that in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy."

 

So, what happened to Regulatory Reform?  Candidate Obama spoke eloquently two years ago about the changes needed.  And, until January 14th, nothing had happened.  Joseph E. Stiglitz in his recently published book: Freefall, America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy"  reasons that President Obama surrounded himself with a team including Messrs. Bernanke, Geithner and Summers that were the same people whose policies helped bring us the economic collapse of 2008.  Stiglitz makes a persuasive case that, as the crisis played out, the bankers simply felt that as the economic freefall came to an end that momentum for reform would disappear.

 

It was a bit of surprise then, when President Obama announced, during his State of Union address, his bank proposals.  The plan's aim, say officials, is narrow: to stop Wall Street from gambling in capital markets with subsidized deposits. One week earlier on January 14th, a new ten-year tax on big banks' liabilities had been proposed.   The Plan falls far short of a return to Glass-Steagall, the Depression-era law that separated commercial banking and investment banking, but it signals a major shift in policy.  For America's big banks there is concern that President Obama, criticized for being too soft on bankers, may unveil more punitive measures in the coming months.

 

In the meantime, however, it appears Wall Street still doesn't get it:

 

 

 

 

 One primary source for this article was the Wall Street Journal,

In This Issue
Business: The Book of Jobs
Bailout: Banks Under Fire
Economy: GDP Spikes
Debt: US & Others in a Ring of Fire
Quick Links
Detterbeck Wealth Management
 
Check out our updated website: 
www.dwmgmt.com
 
220 N. Smith Street
Suite 410
Palatine, IL 60067
847.359.6262
 
193 King Street
Suite 2A
Charleston, SC 29401 
843.577.2463 
Join Our Mailing List!
 
Click here to be added to our mailing list! 
 
Please be assured that your e-mail address will only be used for the delivery of your newsletter.
 
Thanks 
Economy: GDP Spikes
 

 

graph GDP

 

The United States economy in the fourth quarter 2009 grew at 5.7%, its fastest pace in more than six years.  Most of the increase was due to an increase in inventories and that is a very good thing.

However, there is concern about this increase continuing for the following reasons:

·         Inventory growth will only continue if sales grow.

·         Imports fell in the 4th quarter, statistically increasing the GDP number.

·         Stimulus spending  still had a large impact on the increase.

·         The final GDP number may be revised downward as 3rd quarter was.

·         Unemployment rose by 300,000 to 500,000 in the 4th quarter.

Even so, any bit of good news-no matter how minor- is warmly welcomed.

One primary source for this article was the New York Times, click here.

Debt: US and Others in a Ring of Fire

 

 spendng jpeg  

 

 

The US is running massive deficits. The graph clearly outlines the problem. Spending is skyrocketing and revenues keep falling.

Given the state of economy, is it time for another trillion in stimulus to help growth?  In our opinion it is not, because increased deficits and rising debt-to-GDP is a long-term losing proposition.  It simply puts off what will be a reckoning that will be even worse, with yet higher debt levels.  You cannot borrow your way out of a debt crisis.

Bill Gross, of PIMCO, put together the following chart, which shows the US and others in "The Ring of Fire", based on deficits and debt.  It's very sobering.

 

 

ring of fire

 

 One primary source of this article was the Big Picture, click here:

We appreciate your feedback! 
 
Let us know what you think... 
 
Send feedback and suggestions to: les@dwmfnclgroup.com