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| October 20, 2009 |
Issue 23 | |
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"Preparing you for the financial road ahead" | |
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| Business - Felony Franks and Second Chance Coffee Provide Grounds for Optimism. |
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If you happen to be driving in Chicago's West Side, you can stop at Felony Franks. They sell hot dogs "so good; they're criminal." Customers are told they have the right to remain hungry and anything you order can and will be used to feed you at Felony Franks. The menu includes the misdemeanor wiener and the chain gang chili dog. And, you can have the French fries, cole slaw or other "accomplices". When James Andrews opened this hot dog stand, he thought he was doing a community service by hiring ex-convicts. He believes that people deserve a second chance and felons need stable jobs so they don't add to homelessness. Unfortunately, many in the community don't relish the name, "Felony Franks". Further, they believe that Andrews is exploiting the men working for him. Many neighbors have vowed to stay away until the name is changed and the décor, including hot dogs in prison stripes are removed. The city council has yet to approve his application to install a sign that could increase roadside visibility and traffic.
Ex-convicts at Felony Franks don't feel exploited. Kevin Jones, 42, who works there, says the job allows him to provide for himself and his family. Jones used to sell crack and served two years probation. Andrews's concept must be working as he has received dozens of requests from prospective franchisees nationwide. Other restaurants employ former felons. Delancey Street in San Francisco is operated by a foundation that assists former convicts, drug addicts and homeless people. Inmates staff the Mates Inn in Trenton, New Jersey. And, in Wheaton, Illinois, Second Chance Coffee Opened two months ago.
The three owners of Second Chance had witnessed the plight of former prisoners in the job market. They decided they would create a business that would provide fresh coffee and fresh starts. Everything connected with operation of the business is done is based on who they employ. The train station is two blocks away because many offenders can't get driver's licenses. And, the machines are simple to use so the people can be trained easily. Employment at Second Chance requires employees to be involved in a life skills/mentoring, disciplineship group that is helping them get their lives in order.
Getting a job is one of the toughest parts of post-prison life. But small businesses like Felony Franks and Second Chance Coffee are providing grounds for optimism.
For additional information on Felony Franks click here

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-Bailout-The Plummeting U.S. Dollar |
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According to Barron's, the Fed's policy of near-zero short-term interest rates is affecting a wide range of markets. It is contributing to the sharp drop in the dollar and the rally in gold. The stock market has welcomed the lower dollar, because it helps sales for big exporters. Ultimately, low interest rates could stoke inflation and undermine the confidence of overseas investors, who are critical buyers of U.S. debt and equity.
Last week, the dollar neared $1.50 against the euro, as compared to $1.25 in March. The weakness of the dollar, if sustained, could force American consumers to get used to paying more for imported goods as wells as trips to their favorite foreign vacation spots.
Instead of a graph showing the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index, we thought you might enjoy some dollar cartoons of the past couple of years:


Barron's, October 19, 2009
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| -Ask DWM-Are Roth Conversions Worth It? |

Answer: Thanks for the question. There's been much talk about Roths lately for two major reasons. First, the income limitations have been lifted and starting in January 2010 any investor can convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA regardless of their level of income. Second, many retirement accounts have lost value in the last two years and therefore, there may be less tax to pay on the conversion. Let's be honest. The tax-deferral afforded by putting money into retirement plans is the ultimate deal with the devil, aka the IRS. That's because you and Uncle Sam co-own the assets. As they grow, Uncle Sam's share grows as well. As your partner, he's happy to wait for his payout once you distribute the money. Worse yet, in an environment of likely rising tax rates, Uncle may really make out on your deferral. Conversion to a Roth IRA breaks the "partnership" by paying up your deferred taxes. However, once done, the beauty is that you don't need to ever share your future accumulations with your greedy ex-partner. "Pay tax on the seed and watch the tree grow tax-free forever". Virtually all of our clients are candidates for Roth conversions because they will be leaving a financial legacy to their families. Conversely, a Roth may not make sense for those investors that may need to use their IRA or 401k to fund their retirement. By converting and paying taxes now, investors accomplish three things; they lock in the tax rate on the accumulated earnings to the conversion date, they eliminate required minimum distributions on the funds, and they create an investment fund that grows tax-free for the lifetime of their beneficiaries. Here's a quick example: John and Mary are 72 years old. They have $500,000 in an IRA account. As part of their other assets, they have $175,000 of liquid investments. They have two children that are 47 and 43 and four grandchildren that range from 12 to 18. They don't need distributions from the IRA or the $175,000 of outside assets to fund their retirement. Lastly, they expect that all of the IRA could go to their children and/or grandchildren upon their deaths. If they convert to an IRA in January of 2010, they could pay tax of roughly 35% on the $500,000. They also have the option to pay ˝ of the tax with their 2011 return and ˝ with their 2012 return. Once converted, they no longer have any requirement to make minimum required distributions from the Roth IRA. Assuming that John and Mary pass away 20 years from now and the funds grow at 6% per year (again tax-free), their Roth IRA could be worth roughly $1.5MM at that time. At that point, the beneficiaries are required to take distributions over their lifetimes, all of which is tax-free. Assuming the IRA is left to the children and the children are now 65 years old, they are required to take the distributions over the next 21 years. The children would receive $2.8MM tax-free. If they left the Roth IRA to their grandchildren, for example, the grandchildren could withdraw the money over a longer time frame, perhaps 52 years, and therefore receive $9.7MM tax-free.
Yes, Roths, in the right circumstances, are well worth it. They can provide the best legacy one could leave. Income that is tax-free is the best income of all. Please give us a call if you would like to talk about Roth conversions. |
| Investment Management-Nobel Prize in Economics Was a Huge Surprise to Some |
Last week, two Americans, Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. It was a huge surprise to many economists. It shouldn't have been. In a year when many people might think that economists did not deserve recognition at all, many economists had thought Eugene Fama, the University of Chicago's "Father of Modern Finance" would walk away with the Gold Medal and $1.4 million prize. In fact, London's West End bookmakers had installed Fama as a 2-1 favorite two days before the announcement. The economics department at Harvard University, including students and professors had also made Fama the favorite and had entirely passed over Ms. Ostrom and Mr. Williamson as having any chance to win. Dr. Fama is best known for his "efficient -market hypothesis (EMH)" which he developed in the early 1960's at the University of Chicago. This hypothesis asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient" or that prices on traded assets already reflect all known information and instantly change to reflect new information. Therefore, according to this hypothesis, it is impossible to consistently outperform the market except through luck. This theory is based upon the assumption that investors not only know all current information but that they act rationally. Modern behavioral economists believe that investors are not rational and reliance on EMH is at blame, at least in part, for the current financial crisis. They believe EMH caused investors to greatly underestimate the danger of asset bubbles breaking.
In a departure from EMH, the Nobel Prize was awarded to Ms. Ostrom and Mr. Williamson, two social scientists. Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale said of the awards "This represents a merging of the social sciences. Economics has been too isolated and these awards are a sign of greater enlightment going around. Most economics texts don't even mention "bubbles". We were too stuck on efficient markets and it was derailing our thinking". At DWM, we don't count on a rational market. Our Dynamic Tactical Investment Strategy is a great example of this. We use Rydex funds or ETFs as they represent specific investment or asset classes and provide diversification. Using our proprietary methods, we select our positions based on relatively better performing funds. Of course, the relative strength of the asset classes continually changes, so we monitor and rank the funds continually and rebalance our positions monthly. Lastly, because investors are not 100% rational, we provide further protection by employing safeguards, e.g. sell stops, that have us automatically sell out a position that reverses its trend. Bubbles do occur and markets don't always go up. That was the fallacy in Dr. Fama's EMH which was exposed in this latest financial crisis and why he didn't win the Nobel Prize. Obviously, being unenlightened can result in big surprises.
For more information on the Nobel Prize for Economics, click here | |
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