I returned from a year in Japan as a Visiting Professor at Kyoto University's Disaster Prevention Research Institute just three months before the devastating Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The earthquake, tsunami and the ongoing struggle to get the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear facility under control is a staggering disaster. I have stayed in touch with colleagues and friends over Skype and through e-mail as this disaster has evolved. I can hear the frustration, sadness and grief in their voices and in their writings. I cannot fully absorb the impact as the magnitude of the disaster exceeds my ability to understand their current experiences. It is unimaginable. Yet, I was not surprised that an earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan, as there have been numerous great earthquakes in Japan in the past and for the last 25 years that I had been visiting Japan, scientists and emergency managers there have been preparing for an earthquake disaster. I got the sense that Japan is a country on the edge, in constant combat with the forces of nature. As a result, Japan is probably the most prepared country in the world for earthquakes and resulting tsunamis. As I read the reports of damage and loss of life, I have to remind myself that building standards in Japan are equal or greater than in California. We based our earthquake prediction efforts on the Japanese work in the 1980s and 1990s. Our public preparedness programs had their origin in Japanese efforts in the 1980s, and yet, this disaster was greater than their imagination could conceive or plans could cope with. The Japanese in the 1980s put a great deal of effort and faith in their ability to predict earthquake -- specifically the Tokai earthquake that was expected in Shizuoka Prefecture (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/) . That earthquake has not occurred. For the past few years, a concerted effort was underway to plan for a large (M7.8) earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan region. That event has not yet occurred. On March 9th, 2 days before the Tohoku earthquake, there was a M7.2 earthquake that we now know was a foreshock. (Unfortunately, we only know it was a foreshock because the next quake was larger). As we read the news and technical reports, we must ask ourselves what we could have done or should have done to mitigate the impacts of an event like the Tohoku quake. We share the Pacific Rim and the Ring of Fire with Japan. Similar events could happen on the Pacific coast. In the midst of this tragedy, we must seize the "teachable moment."
Tsunami flood Wall and Gate
As background, to say that Japan is disaster prone would be an understatement.
But then, so is California.
The group of islands that make up the nation of Japan are slightly smaller in area than California but with more than four times the population.
More than 90% of the island is rugged mountainous areas containing many small villages, but not suitable for farming or larger communities.
The remaining 10% of the country is occupied by intensive agriculture and cities.
This narrow coastal plain on the Pacific hosts the cities of Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya,
Kobe, Hiroshima as well as the industrial and agricultural heartland of the country.
Japan straddles crustal plate boundaries of the Pacific, Asian and the North American plates and is prone to large earthquakes and tsunamis. Each winter and typhoon season, the steep mountainous inland areas are saturated by rain until the hill sides collapse -- frequently covering residences and small villages. Japan is a country engaged in a continuing struggle against the forces of nature.
Tsunami Siren
In the last century there were numerous M7+ earthquakes in Japan, along with the Great Kanto earthquake (1923) that destroyed most of Tokyo and Yokohama, taking more than 100,000 lives. Memories of Kanto and the fires that devastated Japanese cities in WWII stimulated the development of strict earthquake and fire resistant codes and construction in Japanese cities, while the countryside was still dominated by light traditional wooden residential structures with heavy tile roofs that protected them against the annual typhoon winds but collapsed when shaken. In the 1995 Great Hanshin Awaji earthquake that struck Kobe, most of the fatalities were elderly residents living on the first floors of these types of residences.
Near shore tsunamis along the Pacific plate boundary fostered tsunami science and the construction of sea walls to protect coastal communities. But, the earthquakes and waves kept coming. A group of school children on an outing were drowned in a tsunami that struck Niigata on the Sea of Japan in 1983. The community of Okashiri was washed away ten years later in 1993 from a 30 m wave generated by an earthquake in the Sea of Japan. Earthquakes in 1948 in Fukui and 1964 and 2007 in Niigata; and 1995 in Kobe are constant reminders to the Japanese of the challenge posed by nature.
This past summer I visited the coastal port of Ofunato for the commemoration of the tsunami generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake. The wave had traveled across the Pacific and flooded the estuary, destroying the port, fish processing and lumber mills, and leveling the wooden residential structures. There was no felt earthquake and many residents were caught unaware in the rapid flooding of the estuary. As Ofunato was rebuilt, great care was taken to prepare for a recurrence of a 1960 type tsunami -- one generated well off shore that would allow for warnings and evacuation from coastal areas. Sea walls were constructed separating the harbor from the rest of the community. Underwater barriers were constructed across the estuary to reduce the height and velocity of incoming tsunami waves. Flood gates protecting the city are controlled from the city's fire and emergency management center. Throughout Ofunato, signs were placed to remind the public of the height of the 1960 wave and direct evacuees to areas of refuge on high ground. A speaker system in the low lying areas that can issue warnings and evacuation orders is tested three times a day -- at 7:00 AM with a recording of Edelweiss, at noon with traditional Japanese music and at 5:00 PM with the Beatles Yesterday. If residents do not hear the rather incongruous music, they call the fire department to complain. Ofunato was a city aware, and a city prepared. But Ofunato is no more. The reconstructed harbor was washed away within 15 minutes of the March 11 earthquake. The sirens sounded and the announcements were made to evacuate, the flood gates on the harbor walls were closed, but there was too little time to evacuate and the waves were several times larger than the barriers were designed for.
Ofunato with 1960 Wave Height Sign
The challenge now is to reshape our thinking.
We plan now for events we have experienced, ones we can imagine, and what we expect.
This was also the planning, preparedness and design paradigm in Japan.
They, as we, design and build structures for the "maximum probable earthquake."
We assume that by designing for the maximum probable, we are prepared for the "maximum possible, " or at least the odds are in our favor.
View of Ofunato Harbor
I don't think anyone can fault the Japanese or their government for not being prepared enough for this tragedy.
The infrastructure and civil works to protect coastal communities were built.
In a country where land is scarce, there was a reluctance to abandon coastal communities, farm land and industrial harbors in fear of what might happen.
So the population was educated about the risk.
Their warning system worked and the population received notification of the tsunami.
But, the earthquake and tsunami were greater than imagined and while they had a "Plan A" to mitigate structural hazards, and a "Plan B" to educate the population and issue warnings; but, there was no "Plan C"-- the "what if" plan.
What if a disaster occurs that exceeds the strength of our structures and contingencies for response.
Katrina was such an event for the United States.
The Kobe earthquake in 1995 was such an event for the Japanese.
"Plan C" should have been in place to rapidly respond to the needs of the displaced population, establishing and providing logistic support to provide care to the displacees, and to rapidly provide intermediate term shelter and housing.
"Plan C" would provide for the mobilization of the non-government sector:
the CBOs, FBOs, businesses, medical and other trained volunteers and other volunteers (including locally based rapid search and rescue); and their integration into organized government response capacity.
But, "Plan C" requires a bit of extra work.
It requires local governments to create an interface with NGOs, much like San Francisco has, with a "community" seat in the emergency operations center and integration of volunteer Neighborhood Emergency Response Teams (NERT) into law and fire response systems.
It also requires that the NGO sector plan, train and exercise for their catastrophic disaster role
--
to provide a social network to reach out to the vulnerable, the isolated, the elderly, and those with special needs during and after a disaster.
Downtown Ofunato
We all have a lot of work to do to realize a "Plan C" in our communities. The Tohoko earthquake and tsunami are reminders that even the most prepared communities can be overwhelmed. The earthquake and tsunami also remind us that becoming resilient is more than just building stronger structures. It is also about building social structures that create stronger communities.
I will be returning to Japan in May to meet with colleagues currently studying government and NGO responses to the earthquake and tsunami victims. I hope to be able to cull lessons that can be adapted and applied in our work here to build resilient communities. There is much to learn and much to do.
*A note from SF CARD: Rich Eisner worked closely with San Francisco CARD through his work with the Fritz Institute. We stayed connected with him in his capacity as a Visiting Professor at Kyoto University. We asked him to write this article for us based on his expertise in earthquake science and his experiences in Japan. We appreciate Rich's contribution to this newsletter as this was undoubtedly emotionally difficult.
We experienced a marked increase in call volume after the Japan earthquake and tsunami-more calls than at any time in our history. That is good news because the need to be prepared as a community cannot be taken for granted, as Rich's article points out. But it is unfortunate that all the calls were for assistance in helping put emergency plans in place but none for assisting us to conduct this very valuable work. We do not charge nonprofits and faith-based organizations for the work we do. We depend on the generous support of local foundations, public-sector contributions and donations from all sources. Thank you to our supporters and we will do what we can to meet the ever-increasing demand to help build a disaster resilient community. If you would like to contribute to SF CARD, please go to the following web address: http://communityin.org/sf-card.html. Thank you.
Alessa Adamo, Executive Director
