Understanding IRP 2010 - the national Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity
by Chris Yelland, managing director, EE Publishers
To comment and respond to this article, and/or to any of the views and positions expressed, visit EE Publishers' blog: "The best from EE Publishers...", click on the article title, and respond.
At long last, the cabinet has approved and published the national Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity, IRP 2010. Now this just has to be passed by parliament and published in the Government Gazette. Let's hope there will not be further delays, and that a measure of certainty will prevail so that the electricity sector can get down to work. But what is IRP 2010? Why is it important? And what exactly does it say?... (more)
IRP 2010 forecasts South Africa's electricity demand for the next 20 years up to 2030, and determines how this demand is to be met. It sets out the generation technologies to be used and the planned mix of primary energy options over this period, such as the mix between hydrocarbon (coal, gas, diesel), renewable (hydro, wind, solar), nuclear, pumped storage and other power generation technologies.
IRP 2010 thus enables the necessary short, medium and long term investment, funding and business plans to be developed to give effect to IRP 2010, and this then sets the electricity price trajectory for years to come.
As Eskom and the power generation sector is the biggest emitter of CO2 in South Africa, the selection of appropriate technology and primary energy options made through IRP 2010 gives effect to government policy commitments for the reduction of CO2 emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Whilst it is not cast in stone, but is subject to periodic review and adjustment, IRP 2010 is clearly an important country plan critical to security of electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa. It sets long-term investment directions and decisions valued in excess of R1700-billion over the next two decades.
As such, the formulation and development of IRP 2010 requires a degree of openness and transparency, with participation and input from central and local government, civil society, mining, industrial, commercial, business and consumer stakeholders, in order to achieve the necessary legitimacy, credibility and accountability.
The process commenced with the establishment of a technical task team in early 2010. After stakeholder input on a number of economic and planning assumptions (i.e. the so-called input parameters), and a subsequent modelling process by Eskom, the Draft IRP 2010 was published in October 2010 for public comment and feedback.
The Draft presented a number of scenarios for consideration, with the technical task team recommending the so-called Revised Balanced Scenario as providing an appropriate balance between the need to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and enable a viable renewable energy sector in South Africa, while endeavouring to contain electricity prices to avoid damage to the economy, loss of jobs and undue social hardship. This scenario proposed 52 248 MW of new generation capacity by 2030, with a technology mix as shown in
Fig. 1.
As might be expected where there are widely diverse political, economic, social and business interests, the public hearings on the Draft IRP 2010 elicited intense debate and widespread criticism from various affected parties and interest groups.
While some slammed the process and the technical task team as dominated by a narrow group of Eskom and energy intensive mining and resource stakeholders with significant vested commercial interests, others argue that the development of IRP 2010 has been the most participative and transparent electricity planning process in the history of South Africa.
After the public hearings, some more submissions and further modelling, the IRP 2010 was presented to the government interdepartmental committee on energy for further work and adjustments based on political, economic, social and environmental policy considerations, and this resulted in the so-called final Policy Adjusted IRP 2010 that was approved by the cabinet on 16 March 2011.
This final Policy Adjusted IRP 2010 increased the new generation capacity build over the next 20 years from the 52 248 MW proposed in the Revised Balanced Scenario of the Draft IRP 2010 to 56 359 MW, with a somewhat revised technology mix, as shown and compared in
Fig. 1. This capacity increase reflects a greater emphasis and commitment to renewable energy using solar photo-voltaic (PV), concentrating solar (CSP) and wind generation technologies, as shown in
Table 1.
By adding the new-build technology mix of the final Policy Adjusted IRP 2010 for the next 20 years to the current generation technology mix in South Africa, and then subtracting the generation components that are to be decommissioned by 2030, one can see clearly the generation capacity growth and technology trends envisaged for South Africa over this period, as shown in
Fig. 2 and
Fig. 3.
From this one can clearly see the massive and ambitious new renewable and nuclear build ahead, but also that electricity generation from coal and other hydrocarbons is here to stay, at least for the next 20 years and more. "The road ahead as mapped out in IRP 2010 is ambitious but do-able", says Xstrata's Mike Rossouw, chairman of the IRP 2010 technical task team, "but it requires a new mindset - it is definitely not going to be business as usual".
To comment and respond to this article, and/or to any of the views and positions expressed, visit EE Publishers' blog: "The best from EE Publishers...", click on the article title, and respond.
