| ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ES, Silver, Grains and More
The chart pattern(s) everyone is watching
July 1st, 2012
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
Hello:
The first half of the year ended with a bang! But, truth be told, we simply do not remember the last time a single month was as whippy as June turned out to be. It was an extremely frustrating trading month. Frankly, we am happy that it is behind us - maybe now that Germany has indicated it may blink on its position, we can finally get some trends going in the 2nd half of this year. So, with that level of optimism in mind, lets take a look at a few of the markets that are at critical points. Please note: We sometimes send out real-time updates via twitter: If you wish to receive these updates, simply follow us: our handle is structuredmkts. ( http://twitter.com/#!/structuredmkts) |
|
| S&P: Two Views
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Depending on how you draw your trend lines, the ES can be viewed as a breakout from a consolidation OR it can be viewed as having hit the upper end of the range. Here are the two charts.
The chart above shows the breakout from the consolidation area. The chart below shows how resistance can be interpreted from the same price action...
At this point in time we have to be prepared for the "anything can happen". In order to continue to be bullish, a close above Friday's high would be warranted. Right now we are trading below Friday's high and, arguably, back in the range. Therefore, for now, we would stand aside on any discretionary trades. Existing longs should tighten stops substantially!
|
| November Soybeans: Still holding Breakout Level
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After publishing our Soybeans chart last week, price stayed within a range for most of the week. But, it did do something key for breakouts - it retested the breakout level and then proceeded to make new highs. One of the rules you can use when trading breakouts is this: IF price retests a breakout level and holds, stops can be moved to breakout point.
As of this writing, we are holding above last week's range - after opening above it (bullish open). How price trades around the gap area is going to be key - it should not spend too much time in there, if at all.
Corn and Wheat both had good upside breakouts on weather related news as well. In fact, as far as movement goes, Wheat and Corn are doing a much better job than Soybeans at this point.
|
| Metals - Gold and Silver
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Despite last Friday's run-up in gold, price is still firmly within the triangle. No breakout occurred and so our existing view holds - stand aside and let the market tip its hand first.
Silver shows the same range trading pattern. We just have to watch and wait to see which side breaks.
Our biggest concern with these triangles now is that we are at the APEX and breakouts from that area can be rather weak - these weak breakouts can result in the triangle morphing into some even larger chart formation.
|
| The Trade(s)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S&P: Tighten stops on long positions if any. Stand aside if flat since we are at a critical level.
GOLD, SILVER: No trade - wait for breakout from large chart formation.
NOV SOYBEANS: If price closes above last weeks high then buy intraday pullbacks.
CORN, WHEAT: Buy 1-2 day pullbacks even if they are large (but check for weather related news first!)
|
| Important Risk Disclosures and Legal Disclaimers - This stuff is important!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
First you should realize that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS! The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains. |
| Coming Soon
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Over the last two months we have received feedback on the types of products that you would like to see. We are going to be substantially revamping our service to align our product offerings with the feedback we've received. Stay tuned and keep your comments flowing!
|
| Other Information
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you are new to our newsletter you can find past versions here: Newsletter Archive
|
|
|
|
| Quick Links...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
|
| Contact Information
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
email: contact@structuredmarketseducation.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
|
|
|
|
