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Special Report:  When Trend Reversal Patterns Fail
June 24th, 2012
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Hello:
Many newsletter writers tend to send out reports on their good days, trumpeting how well their techniques work. But then they remain quiet on the bad days when those techniques result in losses.  As experienced traders, we KNOW that the best information can be acquired when things don't work as expected.  That is the time we need to double-down and do intensive analysis so that we gain more insight into how and when things should work properly.  Understanding the failures enable us to be more confident in pulling the trigger when things are working.  In fact, sometimes seeing how well our tools and rules protect us from disaster can help us gain confidence in our trading approach.

In this special report, we are going to examine last Thursday's large market sell-off.  In particular, we are going to look at the market from the perspective of a BULLISH trader.  We are going to do this to highlight those points in the chart where a BULLISH trend-reversal trader might have attempted long trades.  How much damage would such a trader have incurred over the course of one of the most bearish trading days in the past month?

The time period under examination will be the NYSE trading hours (8:30 AM CST - 3:00 PM CST).  We will look at the intraday charts to find points where the trend temporarily turned from DOWN to UP. 

Please note that in this letter, we will incorporate some rather large charts. In order to make sure that everyone can comfortably read this message, we are keeping the images small but you can click on the image to be taken to a larger, more readable version in your browser.

S&P:  The Larger Picture
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EURCHF Monthly Crossrate Chart
The above chart is a 350 TICK chart of the ES between 8:30 am and 3:15 pm on Thursday 6/21/2012.  Please click the image to be taken to a larger, more readable chart.  We chose the 350 TICK chart because it is a timeframe on which a few trend reversals occurred.  That day was so bearish that even a 1 minute chart shows no trend reversals - hence we have to look at chart that has a lower timeframe!

On this timeframe, there were 4 minor trend reversals that occurred from DOWN to UP.  The first two occurred around the 1342 level (basis SEPT ES)  - see chart below.

The first trade would have stopped out for a loss of 2.5 points if you used two swing points back for your initial stop.  The second trade would have stopped out for loss of 3.5 points (if you used two swing points back for your initial stop.)

The third and fourth trades are shown in the chart below:


The third trade would have stopped out for a loss of 3 points and the fourth trade would have stopped out for a loss of 4 points.  All told, indiscriminately taking trend reversal trades to the upside on a day when the market was extremely bearish would have resulted in a loss of approximately 13 points per ES contract.  This loss would have been on a day when the ES fell 33 points during the same time period.

The Lessons
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Ok, time to analyze the lessons learned by this hypothetical bullish trader.

The first thing to realize is that taking a trend reversal signal to the long side without one of the following conditions in place is foolhardy:

a:  A higher timeframe oscillator being oversold or
b:  A well defined support area on a higher timeframe.

Just about any common oscillator was still in the middle of its range on a daily chart.  And, price did not approach any serious support level until around 1330.  Therefore, a more discriminating trader might have taken the last two trades but not the first two.  STILL - and this is what we would like to drive home - waiting for trend reversal signals to develop gave a bullish trader good risk levels and prevented even an indiscriminately bullish trader from incurring a full 30+ point loss.  On one of the worst trading days this month for a bull, the damage done to his/her account on that day was a loss of "only" 13 points per ES contract.  And, we had to drop to a timeframe lower than 1 minute in order to achieve this loss - the 1 minute chart (shown below) did not give any kind of long trend reversal trade!




Conclusion
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In conclusion - we can only reiterate that the good trend reversal patterns require  higher timeframe support in the form of support or resistance or overbought/oversold oscillators.  We are huge fans of waiting for support/resistance on the higher timeframes since even overbought/oversold conditions on oscillators can occur without price hitting support/resistance.  And, at the end of the day, the odds of a good trend reversal pattern working out well is low in the absence of support / resistance levels.
 
Important Risk Disclosures and Legal Disclaimers - This stuff is important!
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First you should realize that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS! The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

 

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