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ETF Spotlight Newsletter
A sampling of research & data from AltaVista Research
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Chart of the week
Fund focus
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Coverage at a glance
No. of ETFs
613

Total Mkt Cap ($bns)

$750.6

Avg. daily value traded ($bns)

$63.0
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March 14, 2011
Greetings!

Below please find the ETF Spotlight newsletter containing highlights of the research and data on www.etfresearchcenter.com as well as a recap of the past week's action in the ETF market. 

In this week's issue

technicianJapan ETFs 
  • Chart of the week: Sales growth for Japan ETFs, 2011E vs. 2010
  • Fund Focus: iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
  • Revisions, asset flows & short interest
  • 2011 Sales per share estimates, growth rates, and P/S multiples for major ETFs
  • Market monitor - movers & categories
To download the full newsletter click here.

Chart of the week
Japan ETFs

Your humble analyst has deep personal connections in Japan and like most people is deeply saddened by the tragedy still unfolding there. It's likely that Japanese stocks will sell-off when markets reopen, and that the seven Japan ETFs we cover will follow suit when they open for trading in New York. Yet none of the funds have a high ALTAR Score™, so we have to caution investors against bargain hunting even after the initial sell-off. 

 

It was clear even before the disaster hit that sales growth for Japanese firms was anticipated to slow dramatically. In fact, the roughly 3-4% growth rate anticipated for this year is slower than for any other broad ETF we cover (see page 4 in the newsletter). Now add to that the disruption to the economy--not just consumers but also production--and the outlook is fairly bleak.

 

The less export-oriented small caps could be hit the hardest, so their recent outperformance could come to an end. For investors who need to maintain exposure to the country, we prefer large caps such as those in the bellwether iShares MSCI Japan fund (EWJ), which is the subject of this week's Fund Focus.


Download the full newsletter here.    

Chart: Japan ETFs 
Annual sales growth, 2011E versus 2010
Japan_ETFs
Source: AltaVista Research  

Fund Focus
iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)mt_fuji

We can't quantify the impact of the earthquake/tsunami on Japanese profits, but the export-oriented multinationals in EWJ may be able to cope fairly well. However the fact is that Japanese firms have relatively low levels of profitability anyway, so despite trading at relatively cheap valuation multiples compared to other developed markets (even before the anticipated sell-off when markets reopen) the stocks still do not appear to represent a bargain.

That said, we favor these large caps over smaller firms such as those in the iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap fund (SCJ). Consider a pairs trade: long EWJ/short SCJ. 


To download the full newsletter, click
here.

New coverage
 
We have added coverage of nine new ETFs. Go to the ETF Research Center for details on any of them.

TickerFund Name
XTLSPDR S&P Telecom
XTNSPDR S&P Transportation
XHESPDR S&P Health Care Equipment
FONEFirst Trust Cea Smartphone
VXUSVanguard Total International Stock
ANDGlobal X FTSE Andean 40 ETF
EMVXGlobal X Emerging Market Value
EMGXGlobal X Emergin Market Growth
ASEAGlobal X Asean 40
As always your questions & feedback are most welcome.
 
Sincerely,
 
Michael Krause
AltaVista Research