Join Our Mailing List             Find us on Facebook              Follow us on Twitter          

 

October 10, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

______________________________________________________________________________________ 

Friends,

 

Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.

 

The Occupy Wall Street protests that have spread across the country have captivated the media's attention. These protests coincide with what could be a broader change in American attitudes towards elected leaders and the policies they advocate - recent polling shows that President Obama's standing on core middle class advocacy measures has improved, while Congressional Republicans are increasingly viewed as the party that stands behind Wall Street. Moreover, while Republicans try to claim that Obama is engaging in class warfare, most Americans believe that his policies are common-sense  and provide further evidence of whose side he's on.

 

Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.

 

John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 

  

STORY THIS WEEK: PreOccupied With Wall Street

 

The Occupy Wall Street protests in New York and DC over the past two weeks have captured the media's attention and provided a new voice for Americans disenchanted with the influence that corporate America has in our political process. Whether related or not, these protests coincide with a change in public attitudes towards elected leaders in Washington and the public's perceptions of who is fighting for them. Over the last few weeks, public poll data has found that President Obama's standing on standing up for the middle class and fighting to create jobs has improved. Though Republicans and pundits on the right try to place Obama's policies out of line with most Americans, an ABC News poll out this week gives the President a 20-point lead over Congressional Republicans on protecting the interests of middle class Americans (52% Obama / 32% GOP). Meanwhile Americans overwhelmingly believe that the Republicans are concerned about protecting the interests of wealthy Americans (70% GOP / 17% Obama).  For further evidence that Americans fall on the side of the White House on recent policies, see our newsletter following the President's Jobs speech.

 

A Rasmussen poll out this week finds that the public has not yet formed firm opinions about the protests; 40% have no opinion towards the protesters. Those with an opinion give the protestors a slightly net-favorable rating (33% favorable / 27% unfavorable) and are divided on the protests themselves (34% support / 31% oppose).  Those are mixed numbers, but the favorable rating for the protestors is higher than either party in Congress's.

 

Although public sentiment towards OWS has not yet settled, there is consensus around some of the things the protesters stand for. The same Rasmussen poll finds that 79% of Americans agree with the statement "The big banks got bailed out, while we got left behind" and 62% of Americans want to see major corporations have less influence in the country, according to Gallup. In fact, Gallup also finds that major corporations and banks/financial institutions only trail "lobbyists" in perceived power - 67% believe that these institutions have too much, ahead of even the federal government (58%). According to a CBS News poll Wall Street is second only to the Bush administration in blame for problems with the economy -- (22% Bush / 16% Wall Street). A Public Policy Poll finds that by a 20-point margin, Americans believe that corporate greed contributed to the current economy and corporations need to be reined in (57%) rather than believing that now is not the time to constrict corporations when we are trying to get the economy on track (37%).

 

Although a  Pew poll finds that a majority (52%) of Americans do not believe the nation is divided into "haves" and "have-nots", nearly half (48%) would consider themselves haves, only 34% think of themselves as a have-not.  More than his recent predecessors, President Obama is viewed as helping the have-nots (29%) over the haves (15%), and 45% believe he helped both equally.  A plurality of Americans (47%) believed that President Bush helped the interest of the haves and 49% believed Reagan did.

 

Americans view the President as a strong advocate for the middle class and people like them, a trend that has only improved as Congressional Republicans try to paint his policies as class warfare and out of line with what voters want. A Quinnipiac poll finds that a majority of Americans believe Obama "cares about the needs and problems of people like you" - 54% - 43%. This breaks along party lines, though Obama's strength on this measure extends to Independents (54% - 44%).

 

The ABC News poll out this week that finds Obama has a sizable lead over Republicans on protecting the interests of middle  class Americans (52% Obama / 32% GOP)  is consistent with ABC's polling on this over the summer, which found the same margin for Obama on protecting middle class Americans, and also found that Republicans in Congress were more likely to be viewed as protecting the interests of Wall Street institutions (59% Republicans / 26% Obama), and large business corporations (67% Republicans / 24% Obama).

 

The ABC poll out this week finds that Obama has a 15-point edge over Republicans in Congress on his approval rating for his handling of the economy (he receives 35% to the GOP's 20%), though we should note that when given a forced choice, Americans split on which they trust more (43% Obama - 42% GOP). 

 

Americans do trust Obama to do a better job creating jobs (49% Obama - 34% GOP), an increase since last month when he was even with Republicans (40% Obama - 40% GOP), potentially a result of his jobs speech and plan. They also have shifted towards trusting the President to determine the right balance between cutting spending from the right programs and continuing government spending that is needed (44% Obama - 39% GOP, from 41% Obama - 44% GOP in June). That said, his overall approval rating remains 42%, unchanged from the last two months. 

 

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

 

ALR Partner Jeff Liszt in the News. Check out ALR Partner Jeff Liszt in his recent appearance on the Rachel Maddow Show!

 

Tax the Rich, say the Rich. A new poll sponsored by American Express finds that 65% of Americans who earn more than $100,000 a year would support an increase in taxes for those who earn $1 million or more. This is nearly identical to the percentage of all Americans who want to see taxes increased on this income bracket.

 

Grand Old What? A 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll finds that only 45% of Americans can correctly identify what GOP stands for - 35% believed it was "Government of the People", 7% said "Grumpy Old People", 3% said "God's Own Party", and 1% believed it stood for "Gauntlet of Power."

 

Lessons in Politics. Burns Strider wrote a great piece on political lessons he learned from his father, a Sheriff in Mississippi.

 

Cheers for Teaism! We want to encourage our readers in the DC area to buy their caffeinated beverages at Teaism, who offers paid sick days to their employees. ALR has been proud to work in several areas of the country working to pass paid sick day legislation. Check out our recent memo on public support here.

 

The News for Obama isn't All Rosy this Week.  A new Pew poll out finds that 54% of Independents would support Romney for President, compared with 41% who would support Obama (though among all voters, Romney and the President tie 48% - 48%). If Rick Perry were the nominee, Independents would break 48% - 45% for Perry. An ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of Americans believe that Obama will be a one-term President, while 37% believe he will be reelected. 

 

 

Missed a past newsletter?

They can be found on our website,

here

.

 

 

PUBLIC POLLING


 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Pew

9/22-10/4/11

Adults

43%

48%

Quinnipiac

9/27-10/3/11

Registered Voters

41%

55%

ABC/Washington Post

9/29-10/2/11

Adults

42%

54%

CBS News

9/28-10/2/11

Adults

44%

44%

FOX News

9/25-27/11

Registered Voters

43%

51%

  

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

10/7/11

Adults

31.2%

23.1%

42.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP NATIONWIDE PRIMARY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Quinnipiac University

9/27-10/3/11

Republicans and Republican-Leaning Registered Voters

Romney

22%

 

Cain

17%

 

Perry

14%

 

Palin

9%

 

Gingrich

8%

 

Paul

6%

 

Bachmann

3%

 

Santorum

3%

 

  

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Right Direction

Wrong Track

CBS News

9/28-10/2/11

Adults

19%

73%

McClatchy/Marist

9/13-14/11

Adults

22%

73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GENERIC HOUSE BALLOT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Unsure

Quinnipiac

9/27-10/3/11

Registered voters

39%

39%

19%

  

OBAMA POPULAR VOTE SHARE

Polling Firm

Date

Polly Vote

Polls

Iowa Electronic Markets

Econometric Models

Index Models

PollyVote

10/7/11

50.7%

49.6%

48.3%

50.2%

54.8%