STORY THIS WEEK: Slick Rick - Measuring Perry's Impact on the Republican Primary

National dynamics

Recent public polls among Republican primary voters since Perry officially entered the race show him in a comfortable lead over the remainder of the field, despite not being as well-known as some of the other GOP candidates. With three-quarters (74%) of Republican voters able to identify him according to Gallup, Perry's name ID lags behind Mitt Romney's (88%),  Newt Gingrich's (86%), Michele Bachmann's (84%), and Ron Paul's (79%). As Republican voters are becoming more familiar with Perry (his name ID is up from 54% at the end of July), his performance in the polls is climbing. Gallup also calculates a positive intensity score, based on the favorability ratings and intensity among voters familiar with each candidate - Perry's positive intensity score leads all other Republican candidates', with 29% of voters "strongly favorable" towards him, while only 15% of voters familiar with Romney are "strongly favorable" towards the Massachusetts Governor.

In just three weeks, Perry has pulled from trailing Romney by 8 points when his candidacy was a merely speculated, to an 8-point lead over Romney in a Fox News poll out last week (26% Perry - 18% Romney, with Sarah Palin trailing at 8%, Paul at 7%, and Bachmann at 4%). Quinnipiac polling finds the same trend, and Perry leads in their most recent GOP polling, 24% Perry - 18% Romney, with Palin receiving 11%, and Bachmann at 10%. In a Quinnipiac poll just six weeks ago, Perry was in 4^th place with 10% and trailing Romney by 15 points. Allocating Palin's support levels in both polls by second and third choice finds that no individual candidate stands to benefit should Palin decide not to run. Each of the top three candidates receive an equal portion of Palin's support.

Table 1: Republican Primary Polling with Palin Allocation

State by State Polling

Perry has also pulled ahead of his competitors in the majority of state GOP primary polls. Just weeks after Bachmann's Ames Iowa Straw Poll win, a poll among likely Iowa caucus-goers finds that Perry now leads Bachmann 23% - 20%, with Romney in third place at 16%. Paul (9%), Herman Cain (8%), and Jon Huntsman (2%) do not break double-digits. Perry also leads in South Carolina (31% - 20% Romney - 14% Bachmann) and Nevada (29% - 20% Romney - 7% Cain).

In California, Romney and Perry are tied with 22% of the Republican primary vote, however among California's Tea Party supporters, Perry leads him 33% - 23%. Among California Tea Partiers, Congresswoman Bachmann only receives 11%, putting her one point ahead of Ron Paul (10%), both candidates who have actively courted the Tea Party vote.

Romney still holds a sizable lead over Perry in New Hampshire, with his 36% doubling Perry's 18%, which puts him closer with 3^rd and 4^th placing candidates Paul (14%) and Bachmann (10%). Romney also leads in Florida, 28% - 21% over Perry, and  no other candidate approaches those two (Bachmann is in 3^rd place with 13%).  

Measuring the Media Hype

Much of the media coverage of late has honed in on the how much coverage the Republican candidates are receiving.. Rick Perry is a recent darling, but many also believe that Jon Huntsman is earning a disproportionate amount of media attention given his lackluster performance in the polls (he does not garner more than 2% in any poll over the last month). And even after a second place Ames finish, Ron Paul has been depicted as the red-headed stepchild of the Republican Party, being skipped over in the coverage and often a political punchline.

A search and tally of Google News finds that Rick Perry has dominated the news over the last month, with 23,800 mentions in the last month alone (remarkably, his total mentions in 2011 is just 5,000 more than this - 28,900). Top tier candidates Michele Bachmann receives the next most mentions over the last month, 13,000, only 200 more than Mitt Romney during the same time (12,800).

Next on the list is Ron Paul (11,000), despite the perception that he receives no media coverage. In fact, he receives more than twice as many media mentions as Jon Huntsman (5,170), and also more than Sarah Palin (6,890).

Taking a closer look at the sources for these media references finds these trends hold regardless of whether the source is the 24-hour news networks (CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News), left-leaning media (New York Times, Washington Post, and MSNBC), or right-leaning media (Fox News and Wall Street Journal). Within each of these subgroups, Paul received far more coverage than Huntsman, Cain, Santorum, and Palin.

Table 2: Media Mentions by Source (from Google News)

At this stage in the race, there is no clear frontrunner in the campaign for President, though as things now stand, Romney  is slightly better-positioned in the general election, though Perry's recent surge on the primary ticket manifests in the general.  In an ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that President Obama is running even with Rick Perry (46% - 47%), a decline since mid-July when the President held a 13-point lead over Perry. Against Romney, Obama trails by 4 points (45% - 49%), and he leads Bachmann 50% - 44%. Quinnipiac finds similar trends, though a slightly better forecast for the President, showing him leading Perry by a narrow 3-point margin (45% - 42%), down from a 13-point lead in mid-July. Romney runs even with President Obama, each taking 45% of the vote, down from 47% - 41% 6 weeks ago.  

PUBLIC POLLING