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July 5, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

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Friends,

 

Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.

 

With New York joining the (too short) list of states to pass marriage equality legislation, we felt it appropriate to take a closer look at public attitudes towards gay marriage.  We're happy to say that in recent years, the public has shifted towards supporting marriage equality, and data suggests that this trend is likely to continue.

Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy. 

 

 

 

John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

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STORY THIS WEEK: ALR's Gayest Newsletter Yet 

 

Public attitudes towards gay rights and equality have evolved over the past several years, and for the first time a majority of Americans support allowing same sex couples to marry. A May Gallup poll finds that 53% of Americans believe marriages between same sex couples should be recognized by law with the same rights as traditional marriage, while only 45% believe it should not. This is a reversal from just one year ago, when 44% supported marriage equality and 53% did not - a figure that at the time represented growing support for marriage equality-as recently as 2004, Americans opposed gay marriage 2:1. CNN's April polling confirms a similar movement - 51% believe marriage between gay and lesbian couples should have the same legal rights as traditional marriage, up from 44% in 2009. Their poll also found that 55% of Independents support marriage equality. In fact, since March, all publicly-available polling on marriage equality has found that more than 50% of Americans now support marriage equality.

State by State Attitudes

With more states moving towards marriage equality legislation (and unfortunately some also moving towards bans), we were fascinated by Nate Silver's most recent analysis of states likely to pass their legislation. The Wall Street Journal put together a helpful map showing each state's laws with respect to this issue here. In states that have already passed marriage equality legislation, recent polling finds that people there support the law - 54% of New Yorkers support the law that just passed, and only 40% oppose. Among voters under 35, support is 70% - 26%; however, among seniors, a majority oppose it 57% - 37%, illustrating the substantial age divide that exists everywhere on this issue. In Rhode Island, whose legislature just passed civil union legislation, voters support it 50% - 41%. In Washington DC, support is 56% - 35%. Polling also finds movement towards support in states where marriage equality has not yet passed - Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia.

Even states that repealed marriage equality legislation have shifted recently towards supporting marriage equality. In Maine, which passed Question 1 in 2009, 47% of voters now support marriage equality, while 45% oppose. In California, support appears to be growing: a March 2010 poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 50% of Californians support marriage equality. A poll by David Binder also finds that support for Prop 8, the law that Californians passed in 2008 to repeal the state's same sex marriage law, has decreased over the years, especially among minority communities (among African Americans, support dropped from 60% in 2009 to 53%. During the same time, it dropped from 51% to 47% among Latinos). 

Rise of LGBT presence in the media

Perhaps one explanation for the public's increased support for gay rights issues is the recent rise in LGBT media personalities, artists, and recurring characters on television shows. GLAAD's annual Where We Are on TV Report found that LGBT representations account for 3.9% of all scripted series regular characters on the major networks in the 2010-2011 broadcast year, up from 3.0% the previous year, and more than tripled since 2007, when only 1.1% of recurring characters were LGBT. Commercial successes like Glee and Modern Family also indicate that mainstream audiences are embracing gay characters.

 

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

  

Update from the Republican field. Newest Republican darling Michele Bachmann announced and announced and announced her candidacy for President this week. A new Gallup poll finds that she is in a strong position, entering the race with a 69% name ID, and ties for the highest positive intensity score for any GOP candidate. While Gallup's national polling still shows her behind 6 other GOP contenders, a recent Des Moines Register poll shows her neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney, and a New Hampshire poll shows her second behind Romney, and the only other GOP candidate to be in double-digits (with 11%).

Growing Income Disparity. The Washington Post's recent op-ed on the growing disparity between America's wealthiest and poorest is worth a read. The share of national income claimed by the top 0.1 percent of earners rose from 2.5% in 1975 to 10.4% in 2008. Moreover, the average executive's annual pay quadrupled in this time, while average wage income has only increased 26%.

Americans Reject GOP Medicare Plan. A new Bloomberg poll finds that a majority of Americans (57% - 34%) believe they would be worse off with the Ryan Medicare Plan. Even more noteworthy, 58% of Independents say they would be worse off.

The Snickers Diet. A study published in the Food & Nutrition journal found that children who ate sweets were 22% less likely to be overweight or obese than kids who shunned sweets. Among adolescents, those who ate candy were 26% less likely to be overweight or obese than adolescents who did not.

Average Price of Gas this week: $3.54/gallon (source)

PUBLIC POLLING 

 

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

CBS/NY Times

6/24-28/11

Adults

47%

44%

Gallup

6/25-27/11

Adults

44%

48%

Marist/McClatchy

6/15-23/11

Registered voters

45%

47%

Time

6/20-21/11

Adults

48%

46%

 

 

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

6/29/11

Adults

32.1%

26.4%

36.1%

 

GENERIC HOUSE BALLOT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Unsure

GWU/Politico Battleground

5/8-12/11

Likely voters

42%

41%

16%

CNN/Opinion Research Corp.

4/29-5/1/11

Registered voters

50%

46%

1%

Quinnipiac

3/22-28/11

Registered voters

37%

40%

20%

 

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Marist/McClatchy

6/15-23/11

Adults

32%

59%

YouGov/Polimetrix

6/18-21/11

Adults

22%

62%

Bloomberg

6/17-20/11

Adults

26%

66%

 

 CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS' JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

AP-GfK

6/16-20/11

Adults

35%

62%

AP-GfK

5/5-9/11

Adults

43%

56%

ABC/Washington Post

4/14-17/11

Adults

36%

60%

Gallup

3/25-27/11

Adults

32%

64%

 

CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS' JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

AP-GfK

6/16-20/11

Adults

29%

68%

AP-GfK

5/5-9/11

Adults

32%

66%

ABC/Washington Post

4/14-17/11

Adults

34%

63%

 

OBAMA POPULAR VOTE-SHARE

Polling Firm

Date

PollyVote

Polls

Econometric Models

Index Models

PollyVote

6/30/11

51.4%

49.5%

50.7%

53.9%