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STORY THIS WEEK: REASON FOR CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR OBAMA AND DEMS
In spite of sluggish economic growth and rising gas prices, recent polls should give President Obama and Democrats a sense of cautious optimism as the battle over the debt-limit heats up. While the standing of both Obama and Democrats has improved in recent weeks, Republican opposition to eliminating tax breaks for the wealthy and for oil companies puts them out of step with a broad swath of the American public.
The killing of Osama bin Laden appears to have given President Obama a bump of about 6 points in the polls, with his average approval rating since the Navy SEAL raid coming in at 52%. According to the latest AP/GfK poll, Americans now support Obama being re-elected by a 10-margin (53% to 43%), after favoring a second term by just 3 points in March (50% to 37%). Additionally, the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll shows that a plurality of 45% believes that he will be re-elected, a 10-point increase from October, while the latest Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds that 59% of likely voters are open to voting for him.
Obama's improved standing is driven by his enhanced stature on national security issues and leadership qualities. The most recent NBC/WSJ poll found his ratings as a "good commander in chief," "being firm and decisive in his decision-making," and "having the ability to handle a crisis," all improving by double digits. The AP/GfK survey showed similar results, with the percentage viewing him as a "strong leader" and trusting him to "keep America safe" both increasing by 8 points, and his job approval ratings on terrorism and Afghanistan surging by 11 and 10 points, respectively.
Despite his improved overall standing, the President does not appear to have seen any improvement in his ratings on the economy, with his average approval rating on the country's most pressing issue still around 40%.
Although Obama's ratings on the economy may not have improved, he can take solace in the fact that he is much more trusted on the issue than Republicans in Congress. The most recent Quinnipiac poll finds that registered voters trust President Obama to handle the economy over Republicans in Congress by a 9-point margin (46% to 37%) and the latest Battleground poll gives him a 6-point edge (48% to 42%). On the question of who the public blames more for the country's current economic problems - Obama and Democrats or Bush and Republicans - a new CNN poll finds that the public faults the latter by an overwhelming 25-point margin (55% to 30%).
Though they did not experience any bounce following the killing of bin Laden, Democrats in Congress also received some reassuring poll results recently, as the latest CNN poll shows Democrats holding a 4-point edge in the generic Congressional ballot (50% to 46%). Although the sample universe is different, these results represent a major reversal from the CNN poll conducted just before the midterm elections that showed Republicans with a 10-point advantage. The Battleground poll shows a tighter generic ballot (42% Dem / 41% Rep), but also reveals a marked improvement for Democrats from their 5-point deficit in October.
The improved standing of Democrats in the Congressional ballot is due primarily to the weakness of their Republican counterparts, as both parties in Congress are viewed unfavorably by a strong majority of the public. However, while the AP/GfK poll finds that Congressional Democrats are viewed negatively by 13-point margin (43% approve to 56% disapprove), the public renders a much harsher judgment on Congressional Republicans, disapproving of their job performance by a ratio of more than 2:1 (32% approve to 66% disapprove).
Given its opposition to repealing tax breaks for oil companies, the GOP is unlikely to see an improvement in these numbers any time soon, as Americans place most of the blame for higher gas prices on the oil industry. CNN finds that 61% of Americans say that oil companies deserve a great deal of blame for higher prices at the pump, and 77% believe that they make too much in profits. It's therefore no surprise that a February NBC/WSJ poll found that 76% of registered voters support eliminating tax breaks for oil companies, making the GOP's defense of them quite risky.
In addition to supporting tax breaks for oil companies, Republicans are also putting themselves at odds with the vast majority of the public when it comes to taxing the rich. Americans clearly want steps taken to reduce the deficit, and while Republicans claim they are serious about it, they are staunchly opposed to at least one of the most popular, if not the most popular, ways to tackle it: increasing taxes for those earning over two-hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year. An April ABC/Washington Post poll found that 72% of Americans supported such a tax increase, highlighting another example of Republicans staking out a position on the deficit that is opposed by three-out-of-four Americans.
Such positions could be particularly perilous for the GOP if they cling to them in negotiations over the debt-limit, as the Battleground poll finds that 56% of likely voters believe that not raising the debt limit will be economically disastrous, with less than a third (32%) saying that it will not have a serious impact on the economy.
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