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STORY THIS WEEK: PUBLIC OPINION ON THE DEATH OF OSAMA BIN LADEN
As information continues to come out about the United States' successful strike that killed Osama bin Laden, polling data reflects that Americans are (not surprisingly) very engaged and experiencing a range of emotions about the news. A Washington Post poll conducted Monday night found that 68% of Americans had heard "a lot" about it, and 28% had heard "a little." Almost universally, 93% approve of the raid, and 79% consider the killing of Osama bin Laden "important," according to a Gallup poll. Washington Post/Pew also measured Americans' personal reactions to the news, finding that we are relieved (72%), proud (60%), happy (58%), and afraid (16%). The Post also put together a word cloud with responses to how people felt about it here.
A Gallup poll finds that 60% of Americans feel it was better for the US to kill bin Laden, while 33% think it would have been better to capture him alive. Further, CNN finds that a majority of Americans believe the US government should release a picture of bin Laden's, while 39% believe they should not.
Americans are also wondering what the long term effects of bin Laden's death will be for the United States. Washington Post/Pew finds that a majority of Americans are worried about al Qaeda attempting a major attack against the US in retaliation (22% say they worry "a great deal" and 45% worry "somewhat"). The same poll finds that 88% of Americans feel that the US will have to take further military action to reduce the threat of terrorism, and that 62% have a great or good deal of confidence in the government to prevent further attacks (only 7% have no confidence at all).
Nearly every American credits the troops for the killing of bin Laden, according to Gallup - 86% give them "a great deal" of credit (96% give them a great deal or some), followed by the CIA/US intelligence agencies (89% great or some credit). President Obama receives more credit (76% great/some) than his predecessor (51% give President Bush a great deal or some credit).
Initial polling conducted in the midst of the news suggests that the killing of bin Laden has given President Obama a boost in his approval rating. A CBS/NY Times survey measured an 11 point increase in Obama's approval rating since last month (from 46% to 57%). The Washington Post/Pew survey found a 9-point jump from mid-April in a one-night poll conducted on Monday (from 47% to 56%).
Obama's approval ratings on Afghanistan have surged (60% approve, up from 44% in April), as well as on the threat of terrorism (69% approve, up from 56% in February 2010). By comparison, after Saddam Hussein was captured in 2003, President Bush experienced a bump between 5 to 10 points in most polls; however, the bump evaporated after a few weeks. The bump does not seem to have impacted Obama's standing on domestic issues - he remains underwater on the economy, 40% approve of the job he's doing, down from 42% in April.
Gallup has tracked presidents' approval ratings during times of crisis and showed boosts in job approval tend to be short-lived - (taken directly from pollster.com analysis):
- Following the positive resolution of the Cuban missile crisis, President John F. Kennedy's approval rating jumped from 61% in mid-October 1962 to a high of 76% in December. It returned to 61% six months later.
- The taking of 52 American hostages in Iran in November 1979 followed by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the next month helped boost the approval ratings of President Jimmy Carter from 32% to 58%. As the hostage crisis dragged on, it pulled Carter's approval rating down to 32% by June 1980.
- President George H.W. Bush hit a high of 89% job approval during Operation Desert Storm in January and February 1991. Bush's approval quickly began a steady decline in March 1991.
- Following the Sept. 11 attacks, George W. Bush experienced the biggest historic jump in presidential approval ratings in the modern polling era, from 51% to 90%. Bush's ratings then steadily declined over the course of his presidency, interrupted briefly by two upward spikes following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003 (an 11 point gain) and the capture of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in December 2004 (a 7 point increase).
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