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April 21, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

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Friends,

 

Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.

 

Among the first signs that Spring is really here are the first mowing of the lawn, Major League Baseball's Opening Day, and cutting an income tax check to Uncle Sam. This week, our summary focuses on U.S. policy - both facts about taxes and the public perceptions that often belie them.

 

Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.

 

John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

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STORY THIS WEEK: DEATH AND TAXES AND POLLING (MINUS THE DEATH)  

 

Tax Facts

 

The average American family is paying less in federal income taxes than at any time since the Eisenhower administration. 

 

A recent study by the Tax Policy Center (and reported by the Orange County Register) finds that a median-income family of four has paid less in federal income taxes for the past two years than at any time since 1955. The average American family paid a federal income tax rate of 4.68% in 2010, compared to rates of 11% or more from 1980-1982. While the marginal federal income tax rate for such a family is 15%, deductions like the earned income tax credit, child care tax credits, and the "Making Work Pay" tax credits included in President Obama's 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act cut the real burden of a typical middle class family by almost 70%. The economic recession also plays a role in this phenomenon, as unemployment or falling wages can drive families into lower tax brackets.

 

The wealthiest Americans are paying substantially less in taxes than they did twenty years ago

 

The Associated Press recently explored trends in the IRS' tracking of the four hundred highest adjusted gross incomes. IRS data from the last year with such information available (2007) reveals these top four hundred earners, with an average income of $345M, paid a federal income tax rate of 17%. This 17% rate is down more than one-third from the 26% rate the top four hundred were paying in 1992.

 

Even more galling, Tom Herman of the Fiscal Times points to roughly ten thousand Americans who earned over $200,000 in 2007 but paid no federal income taxes. The Wall Street Journal's Robert Frank shows how this trend extends to state income taxes as well. In California, more than 2400 upper income households pay no state income tax and in New York the number is over 1500.

 

Many of the wealthiest US corporations pay little or no federal taxes

 

Forbes reveals that several of the top twenty-five US corporations paid no federal taxes in 2010. Exxon, Citigroup, General Electric, Bank of America, are among the corporate giants that paid no U.S. federal income taxes in 2010. Others like Ford and Chevron paid 1-2% of their pretax income in U.S. income taxes - a fraction of the tax rate of the average American family. The ability of these international companies to utilize low-tax foreign countries places American-based companies at a fundamental competitive disadvantage. For example, CVS pharmacies ($100B in domestic sales) pay a full 35% federal income tax rate, as they have no overseas operations to lower their overall rate.

 

Senator Bernie Sanders has compiled his own list of the most egregious corporate income tax evaders.

 

Miscellaneous Tax Facts

 

Blogger Michael Wise compiles 15 "surprising facts" about the income tax. Find out: Why April 15th? How many people think its ok to cheat on their taxes? How many hours and how much money do Americans spend preparing their taxes?

 

And if you're insufficiently taxed by the first list, Wise offers another compilation of "20 outrageous and just plain weird tax deductions".

 

Tax Perceptions

 

Despite the above facts that demonstrate most Americans are paying less in federal income taxes than at any time since the 1950s, there is an apparent perception in some quarters that taxes have dramatically increased over the past few years. The Tea Party movement is the best example of this sentiment, and they have no doubt helped fuel such a narrative. However successful the elites of the Tea Party have been driving their message through the media, the American public has not embraced their view of federal tax policy.

 

Gallup finds no such spike in belief that taxes are too high. In polling released just this week, Gallup shows that the 50% who say the federal income tax is "too high" (43% "about right") is well in line with polling over the last several decades. In fact the 50% who currently say taxes are too high is less than the 52-53% share in the last two years of the Bush administration. And 50% is lower than at any point during the 1990s and ten points lower than in the middle of Ronald Reagan's first term (1982: 60% "too high).

 

Perhaps even more fundamentally, 57% of Americans believe the income tax they pay is "fair". This number has hovered in the high 50s / low 60s for the last decade, and is twelve points higher than the 45% "fair" number from 1999. Early April nationwide polling from Fox News asks a similar question in a slightly different way, and revealed a slight majority of registered voters feel the taxes they pay are "pretty close to their fair share" (52%), compared to 42% who said they were taxed "more than their fair share".

 

While both Gallup and Fox News show majorities believe their own federal income tax rates are "fair', a sizable majority feel "upper-income people" and "corporations" should be shouldering more of the tax burden.  Recent Gallup polling reveals that two of three voters (67%) feel corporations pay "too little" in federal taxes and 59% feel upper-income people pay too little. Conversely, a small plurality feel lower-income people pay too much (40%), with 37% feeling they pay their "fair share", and an additional 21% who believe those with lower-incomes pay too little.

 

In their belief that corporations and upper-income earners aren't taxed enough, Americans see federal tax policy as a tool to address the income inequality they deem objectionable. Gallup finds 57% of Americans believe "money and wealth should be more evenly distributed", to 35% who believe the current distribution is "fair". A nearly 5:1 majority of Democrats believe there should be more even distribution (78% Should be Distributed More Evenly / 16% Status Quo is Fair), while a solid majority of Republicans believe the current distribution is fair (36% Should be Distributed More Evenly / 56% Status Quo is Fair). Independent voters (55% Should be Distributed More Evenly / 36% Status Quo is Fair) closely ape the nationwide numbers.

 

However, on the more polarizing verbiage of "should government redistribute wealth by heavy taxes on the rich?" (Should 47% / Should Not 49%) voters are more evenly divided.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

  

Voters strongly prefer new taxes on the wealthy, rather than Medicare cuts, to trim deficit: With the federal budget deficit the issue du jour in Washington, fresh numbers from McLatchy / Marist reveal voters dramatically prefer higher taxes on the wealthy to cuts to Medicare as a tool to remedy the budget deficit. By roughly 2:1, voters favor raising taxes on individuals with incomes of $250K+ (64% Favor / 33% Oppose) and an even greater margin opposes cutting Medicare and Medicaid (18% Favor / 80% Oppose).

 

A new Washington Post / ABC News poll issues similar findings. They find over 70% support for "raising taxes on incomes over $250K" (72% Support / 27% Oppose), while finding greater than 3:1 opposition to "cutting spending in Medicare" (21% Support / 65% Oppose).

 

The first couple releases tax returns: The Obama's publicly-released tax return reveals a $1.7M income, mostly through the presidential salary and continued book sales. The first couple contributed 14% to charity, including a six-figure donation to the Fisher House Foundation that supports members of the military and their families.

 

President Obama bests GOP field in head-to-head votes: Polling released this week by ABC News / Washington Post shows President Obama beating the Republican candidates in seven individual head-to-head tests. The President leads Sarah Palin by 17 points (55% Obama / 38% Palin) and also posts double-digit leads over Newt Gingrich, Donald Trump, Tim Pawlenty, and Michelle Bachman. Only Romney (49% Obama / 45% Romney) and Huckabee keep the President's margin in single digits (50% Obama / 44% Huckabee).

 

Republican voters less than enthused about the GOP primary field:The same ABC News / Wash Post poll also finds that Republican voters are much more dissatisfied with their field of primary candidates than at this time four years ago. Currently, only 43% of Republicans say they're "satisfied with the choice of Republican candidates for President". In April 2007, 65% of Republicans were satisfied with the 2008 field.

 

The more voters learn about the Ryan Budget, the more they oppose it: Fresh numbers from Democracy Corps report a plurality of voters initially approve of a Republican budget that cuts six trillion dollars in ten years (48% Favor / 33% Oppose). But with a neutral explanation of the changes to entitlements and tax policy contained within the Ryan budget, voters move to majority opposition (36% Favor / 56% Oppose).

 

Ninety-eight percent of House Republicans vote for Ryan Budget: Of the 240 House Republicans, all but five voted for Paul Ryan's budget that changes Medicare and Social Security as we know it, jeopardizing guaranteed benefits for tens of millions of Americans. Republicans voting against the Ryan Budget were Walter Jones (NC), David McKinley (WV), Ron Paul (TX), and Dennis Rehberg (MT). Conspicuous by his failure to vote either way was perennial Democratic target Dave Reichert (WA). For their part, Democrats were uncharacteristically unified in their opposition to the Ryan budget.

 

Nate Silver throws cold water on bullish predictions of a GOP Senate takeover: Washington conventional wisdom has Senate Republicans as heavy favorites to take the Senate in 2012. However, Silver points out that competitive Senate races often fall the same way on election night, and a good Democratic year at the top of the ticket could ward off Republican takeover plans. Silver still sees Republicans as slight favorites, but makes a data-driven case that Mitch McConnell shouldn't start measuring the drapes.

 

The Fix focuses on first quarter fundraising: The Washington Post's Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza highlight what you need to know in the 1st Quarter federal fundraising reports. One interesting nugget: "The GOP freshman class raised significantly less on average in the first quarter than the big classes of Democratic freshmen in 2007 and 2009."

 

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget - Budget Calculator: Many organizations offer "budget calculators" that allow armchair appropriators to tinker with the federal budget. The CRFB calculator may be the most realistic as they not only identify potential cuts, but also areas that many (on both sides) may very well wish to spend more. Happy crunching!

 

What the hell is a debt ceiling anyway?: CNN Money's Jeanne Sahidi offers a layman's primer on the debt ceiling and why it matters.  NPR and Slate also offer quick primers.

PUBLIC POLLING

 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Is the national economy...

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Getting Better

Getting Worse

Staying the Same

ABC/Wash Post

4/14-17/11

Adults

28%

44%

28%

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

ABC/Wash Post

4/14-17/11

Adults

47%

50%

Gallup

4/14-16/11

Adults

44%

47%

Gallup

4/10-12/11

Adults

44%

48%

Ipsos/Reuters

4/7-11/11

Adults

46%

49%

CNN

4/9-10/11

Adults

48%

50%

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL HEAD-TO-HEADS

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Obama

Palin

ABC/Wash Post

4/14-17/11

Adults

55%

38%

 

Obama

Gingrich

54%

39%

Obama

Romney

49%

45%

Obama

Huckabee

50%

44%

Obama

Pawlenty

53%

38%

Obama

Trump

52%

40%

Obama

Bachman

51%

39%

 

 

 

CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS' JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Democracy Corps

4/10-12/11

Likely Voters

38%

55%

 

 

CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

DEM

GOP

Democracy Corps

4/10-12/11

Likely Voters

45%

47%

 

 

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

4/13/11

Adults

30%

23%

39%

 

 

 

 

 

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