Changes in nuclear polling

The crisis in Japan has caused a significant drop in support for new nuclear plants, with two recent polls finding opposition to new nuclear plants exceeding support for them. After finding the public split on the issue in October (45% favor / 44% oppose), a March Pew poll found the public now opposing new plant construction by a 13-point margin (39% favor / 52% oppose). A recent CBS poll showed a similar trend, with Americans now opposing new plants by a 7-point margin (43% favor / 50% oppose), a sharp departure from their strong support for them back in July, 2008 (57% favor / 43% oppose)

Despite the decline in support for new nuclear construction, Gallup finds that 57% of Americans still support the use of nuclear power, a number that has moved relatively little since the tsunami. Over two-thirds (69%) of the public also thinks nuclear power plants in the US are safe, according to CBS.

With that said, the crisis in Japan is one of the three major news events in the last 40 years that has moved public opinion away from building new nuclear plants. The first of the three, at Three Mile Island in 1979, dropped support for building more nuclear plants from 69% down to 46% in CBS polling, despite no loss of life. The second, the much more catastrophic Chernobyl meltdown in the Ukraine that affected thousands, dropped American support for more nuclear power to 34%, with 59% opposed. Opinion had moved back towards nuclear power in the 25 years between Chernobyl and the tsunami in Japan: according to CBS, support for new nuclear power before the tsunami ranged peaked at 57% in July, 2008.

It is unclear how this will play out over the years-will the public quickly move back to old levels of support for building more nuclear plants, or have we seen a longer-term shift? If the impact of the BP oil spill is any indication, the shift in views might be short-lived; Pew reports the startling finding that 57% of Americans support increased offshore drilling, only slightly down from the 63% that supported it in February 2010 before last year's oil spill into the Gulf of Mexico. Just 44% of people supported more offshore drilling in the weeks immediately following the BP spill.

Demographic divides

There are stark divides across demographics on the nuclear power:

·         Gender: Men favor construction of nuclear plants in the US 55%-36% while women oppose it 56%-34%, according to Gallup. This may be the largest gender gap on any issue in politics.

·         Education: Voters with a postgraduate degree are supportive of new nuclear power 63%-33% while voters with a high school degree or less are opposed 56%-31%.

·         Partisanship: Democrats oppose new nuclear power 61%-32% while Republicans support it 62%-33%. Independents are split 43%-45%.

While there certainly is a partisan divide here, it's uncommon to see such an issue where 30% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats disagree with the rest of their party. It's also unusual to see other demographics play as much of a role in people's feelings on the issue as partisan leanings-people clearly think about nuclear power in other ways than just a strict partisan lens.

Where the public wants its energy to come from

Voters are split on nuclear power, but they have strong opinions about other power sources. According to CNN voters want more wind, solar, and natural gas, but less oil and coal:

                Which of these energy sources should we rely on more, and which should we rely on less?

Nuclear polling around the world

Unsurprisingly, the same debate about nuclear power is playing out around the world. Here is a sampling:

·         France: France is one of the world's largest consumers of nuclear power and generates about 75% of its energy from nuclear. The French are opposed to a referendum that would end nuclear power in France 55%-42%, according to a poll sponsored by their state-run energy company.

·         Germany: 80% of voters recently said they wanted to reverse Chancellor Merkel's decision to extend the operating life of German nuclear plants (about 25% of Germany's power is from nuclear energy). Also, Merkel's party's recent loss of a 58-year political stronghold in SW Germany surrounding wealthy Stuttgart has been blamed in large part on public uneasiness with her handling of nuclear power in the weeks since the Japanese tsunami.

·         Thailand: Voters are opposed 83%-17% to new nuclear power, according to Thai polling company Abac. Thailand currently gets no energy from nuclear power.

·         Sweden: In Sweden, where roughly a third of electricity comes from nuclear power, 57% want to either keep nuclear power's use the same or increase it (down from 80% in 2008). 21% of Swedes want to increase their use of nuclear power (down from 47% in 2008), while 36% want to get rid of nuclear power all together (up from 15%).

·         Lithuania: According to Veidas magazine, 88% of votes are opposed to plans to build a new nuclear plant in Lithuania, compared to 41% who were opposed in January.

*Defined by the BLS as persons not looking for a job because they believe no jobs are available for them