Traditionally in politics, it's hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Each cycle political campaigns grow more expensive, more sophisticated, and begin earlier. Though two of these trends will probably hold during the 2012 election, the Republican Presidential field is taking longer to coalesce than in previous cycles. During the 2008 race, virtually every serious candidate on both the Republican and Democratic sides had officially entered the race by April of 2007. In fact, the 2008 candidate who entered the race on the most relaxed time table (Fred Thompson) hardly produced a campaign which one would expect his fellow Republicans to emulate.

Nevertheless, potentially top tier candidates like Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitch Daniels seem legitimately ambivalent about taking the presidential plunge. Even Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, and Haley Barbour - who seem to be making the moves expected of presumptive candidates - are moving at a snail's pace relative to the 2008 cycle. Of course the Republican field can count Rick Santorum, Buddy Roemer, Herman Cain, and Michelle Bachman among the more aggressive candidates, though their campaigns probably warrant the dreaded "quixotic" label. And the potential Republican candidate getting the most press of late is that stalwart Republican champion Donald Trump.

Perhaps just as revealing as the candidates who are considering running, are those who've already taken themselves out of consideration. Despite real buzz among grassroots and/or national Republicans, Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, Marco Rubio, John Thune, and Chris Christie have all passed on 2012 bids. Each could have potentially filled the role of the fresh-faced, outsider but is also young enough to keep their powder dry for a future national bid.

Certainly, these numbers are only early snapshots of a race months away from fully forming. At times during the 2008 primary campaign, Hillary Clinton was viewed as unbeatable and John McCain's' primary campaign was given up for dead. Perhaps the most appropriate comparison to the 2012 Republican primary field can be found in the 1988 Democratic primary candidates, infamously dubbed the "seven dwarves" after Gary Hart's implosion and after heavyweights like Mario Cuomo and Bill Bradley didn't make the starting gate. Though the number of potential Republican candidates changes by the day, the description of the 2012 Republican field as "dwarves" is probably inevitable.

As late as January 1988, Gallup showed eventual Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis at just 10% in nationwide polling among Democrats and trailing Hart and Jesse Jackson. And in January 2004, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of Democrats found John Kerry at 7% nationally, only weeks before he was to capture the Democratic nomination. Candidates like Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Mitch Daniels can take solace in the primary paths (if not the general election results) blazed by Dukakis and Kerry. Though Republican primary voters historically embrace the early frontrunner, if there ever was a political climate and GOP field conducive to a fresh face or insurgent, 2012 would be the year.

The lethargy on the Republican side might indicate that many potential candidates believe the 2012 GOP nomination is not especially valuable. President Obama looks strong in several critical "swing states", the economy is moving in the right direction, and the President has a battle-tested campaign apparatus poised to spring into action. That may be analysis through a Democratic-prism, but it's not only Democrats who are unimpressed with the Republican field. Rush Limbaugh has urged Florida Freshman Senator Marco Rubio to enter the fray, Iowa Republican Charles Grassley has suggested only two or three Republican candidates are actually credible commanders'-in-chief, and conservative icon Jim Demint is predicting surprise entries to liven up the moribund field.

Regardless of the eventual identity of the 2012 Republican nominee, there has already been a wealth of polling - both nationwide and in important primary states - testing the GOP field.

National GOP Primary Polling

Gallup's most recent polling of the Republican primary field shows wide disparities in name-identification among the potential candidates. Among self-identified Republicans and Republican leaners, Sarah Palin's name-ID (97%) is equivalent to that of a President or religious deity.  Mike Huckabee (89%), Newt Gingrich (86%), and Mitt Romney (83)% retain the name-ID developed from years (or decades) in the political trenches, and Ron Paul's 2008 campaign has helped him become a Republican of national renown (76%). Beyond the potential candidates with higher name-recognition, Michele Bachman is known to roughly half the electorate (52%), with Haley Barbour (42%), Rick Santorum (42%), and Tim Pawlenty (41%) in the low 40s. Mitch Daniels is known to roughly one in three Republicans (33%), while Jon Huntsman is known to slightly more than one in five (21%).

Since Labor Day 2010, Gallup has polled Republicans nationally four times - testing a hypothetical Republican presidential primary. Three candidates have been in double digits in each of the four polls - Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin. The most recent Gallup poll (March 18-22) found  Huckabee out in front (19%), followed by Romney (15%), and Palin (12%).  The most striking characteristic of this top-tier triumvirate is that two of the three candidates seem to be looking for reasons not to run. Among these three, only Mitt Romney is behaving like a presidential candidate. Polling within the last month from Pew (Romney 21% / Huckabee 20% / Palin 13%) shows a similar order, though CNN and NBC News / Wall Street Journal find Gingrich beginning to displace Palin for third place.

Beyond the top tier of Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, are potential candidates with national profiles or followings like Newt Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul, (6%), and Michelle Bachman (5%). Though it would probably be difficult to find an objective prognosticator who expects Gingrich, Paul, or Bachmann to ultimately emerge as the Republican standard-bearer, they are each currently outpolling establishment darlings Mitch Daniels (4%), Tim Pawlenty (3%), Haley Barbour (2%), and Jon Huntsman (2%). Clearly, these numbers will change as the race begins in earnest and candidates begin to communicate with voters. For any of this group of candidates to go from low single digits to the GOP nomination would be breaking new and historic ground in Republican presidential politics - which are traditionally dominated by frontrunners.

State Level GOP Primary Polling

Iowa

A recent We Ask America automated poll among likely GOP caucus goers shows 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee out in front (20%) with Sarah Palin (14%), Newt Gingrich (14%), and Mitt Romney (13%) bunched together in the low teens.  The other candidates tested were in the single digits, with neighboring Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty receiving only 3% among likely caucus goers. January polling from Strategic National and Public Policy Polling confirm Huckabee's status as the caucus frontrunner, if he makes the plunge.

New Hampshire

Unlike 2008, when Mitt Romney had to fight (and ultimately lost to) John McCain in the Granite State, Romney appears to be a solid frontrunner in the 2012 New Hampshire primary. January polling from the University of New Hampshire has Romney lapping the field with 40%, Rudy Giuliani at 10% and all others in single digits. Polling from Strategic National, also in January, found similar Romney dominance (Romney 33% / Huckabee 14% / Palin 13%).

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