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March 16, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

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Friends,


Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
  

 

With the NCAA tournament kicking off this week, we decided to make it the focus of our latest national polling summary. After all, cutting through the clutter with polling on the latest continuing resolution is hard enough without having to contend with Jimmer Fredette.

 

 

Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.


 
John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

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STORY THIS WEEK: THE POLLSTERS POST-UP MARCH MADNESS

 

Just how big of a deal is March Madness?  Estimates on the percentage of Americans who fill out an office-pool bracket range from 20% in a 2010 Career Builder survey to as much as 45%, according to a 2009 MSN/Miscrosoft poll.  The Career Builder poll found that men were more than twice as likely as women to participate in office pools (28% to 11%), and that participation was highest in the Midwest (27%) followed the Northeast (20%), the South (17%) and the West (16%).

While most Americans watch the games on television, the continued advancement of internet video streaming has led to a surge in the number of people watching online. Internet viewership increased by 36% last year, as 8.3 million people logged on to cbssports.com to watch the games and stayed for an average of 1.4 hours. This year, online viewership is expected to continue to rise, especially now that CBS and Turner sports have announced that every game will now be streamed for free on iPhones, iPads and iPod touch.

In addition to the millions watching the games on cbssports.com, an even larger share of the country will be following the results through social media. A recent online poll by Harris interactive found that 23% of Americans plan to use some form of social media to follow March Madness. Of those, nearly two-thirds (62%) will use social media to check scores, while 44% will use it to watch the games themselves.

According to Nielsen data, 92% of online March Madness viewership occurs at work, so with the games becoming easier to watch and follow online, CBS' boss button will be getting even more use this year. As a result, U.S. employers are estimated to lose 8.4 million hours of productivity due to the tournament, at a cost of $192 million. While that may seem like a significant number, there is no need to worry about the Clemson fan down the hall helping to cause a double-dip recession. The estimated lost hours of productivity represent less than 0.07% of the time worked by U.S. employees over the three weeks of the tournament, so the tourney shouldn't even register a blip on the economic radar.

Though tournament viewership at work is only likely to increase, America's bosses don't seem to be terribly concerned about its impact on their company's bottom line. According to an OfficeTeam poll of 1,000 senior managers, just 22% say that the games hurt productivity, with an equal percentage saying that they will actually make more workers more productive and a majority believing that they won't have an impact either way. When it comes to whether March Madness related activities should be allowed in the office, 32% say they should not be, but the remaining two-thirds believe they are either fine in moderation (57%) or actually welcome such events (11%).

Other than perhaps the Duke Blue Devils, there are few aspects of college basketball that raise the ire of fans as much as the NCAA's proposal to expand the tournament to 96 teams.  An April 2010 survey by Public Opinion Strategies found that self-identified college basketball fans (who according to the survey make up 40% of the electorate) oppose expanding the tourney to 96 teams by a resounding 30-point margin (59% to 29%). Intensity also favors the opposition, as strong opponents outnumber strong supporters by a 2:1 ratio (38% to 16%). Though the proposal to expand the tourney to 96 teams has been tabled following the compromise to increase this year's field to 68 teams, NCAA officials indicate that it is still an option in the future. If such an expansion it occurs, it is a reminder that in sports, unlike in politics, public opinion has little sway over those in power.

 

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

 

Americans strongly oppose government shutdown: A recent Bloomberg poll finds that 77% of the country favored a compromise over making the types of deep spending cuts that would result in a government shutdown. Additionally, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll reveals that nearly two-thirds believe that a government shutdown would be a "bad thing."

For first time in history, more Americans support gay marriage than oppose it: The General Social Survey shows that for the first time in history, more Americans support gay marriage (46%) than oppose it (40%). When GSS first asked the question in 1988, 73% of Americans opposed gay marriage. The shift has been particularly dramatic in recent years, as opposition stood at 56% in 2004.

Independents and public overall warming to a more active government: After favoring a less-active government for the past two years, the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a majority of the public now believes that government "should do more to solve problems," with the survey finding a particularly pronounced shift among Independents.

Nearly two-thirds say war in Afghanistan not worth cost: An ABC News/Washington Post poll indicates that opposition to the war in Afghanistan has reached it's highest level yet, with 64% of Americans saying it is not worth the cost and nearly three-quarters supporting withdrawal this summer.

Support for no-fly zone in Libya: According to a new CNN poll, a majority of Americans support the establishment of a no-fly zone in Libya, but oppose sending ground troops.

Public believes both spending cuts and higher taxes needed to reduce deficit: Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll believe that best way to reduce the deficit is through both spending cuts and higher taxes.

President Obama extending his advantage over GOP on the economy and the deficit: Americans trust President Obama more than Congressional Republicans on the economy by a 12-point margin and on handling the deficit by 9 points according to the new ABC News/Washington Post poll. In January, he led by just 5 and 3 points, respectively.

Passport ownership by state: Interesting map.

West Wing Week: "Law School in 15 seconds"

The best NCAA Tournament pool in the business: The Mission Control bracket is up.

PUBLIC POLLING

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

CNN/ORC

3/11-13/11

Adults

50%

47%

ABC/Wash. Post

3/10-13/11

Adults

51%

45%

Gallup

3/8-10/11

Adults

47%

45%

YouGov/Polimetrix

3/5-8/11

Adults

44%

48%

Gallup

3/5-7/11

Adults

46%

46%

Bloomberg

3/4-7/11

Adults

51%

43%

 

 

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Bloomberg

3/4-7/11

Adults

28%

63%

Ipsos/Reuters

3/3-6/11

Adults

31%

64%

YouGov / Polimetrix

2/26-3/1/11

Adults

27%

57%

NBC/WSJ

2/24-28/11

Adults

31%

60%

 

 

APPROVAL OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Quinnipiac

2/21-28/11

Adults

33%

57%

 


 
 

 

 

APPROVAL OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Quinnipiac

2/21-28/11

Adults

34%

54%

 


UNEMPLOYMENT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Unemployment rate

Discouraged workers* (thousands)

Part time for economic reasons (thousands)

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Feb 2011

Adults

8.9%

1,020

8,340

BLS

Jan 2011

Adults

9.0%

993

8,407

BLS

Dec 2010

Adults

9.4%

1,318

8,931

BLS

Nov 2010

Adults

9.8%

1,282

8,960

 

 

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

3/7/11

Adults

32%

24%

36%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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