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March 8, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

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Friends,


Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
  

This week is a little change of pace as we encourage everyone to take off their political blinders and have a look at public opinion in the world around us in a wide range of topics, from sports to sex, from cell phones to sweet dreams.

 

Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.


 
John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

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STORY THIS WEEK: SEX, DRUGS, AND CHARLES DARWIN:

 

A Non-Traditional Look at Public Opinion

Sex in America: The CDC conducts an annual survey of sexual behavior, attraction, and identity among people ages 15-44. Note: it is extremely important to keep social desirability in mind in reading these results, either in under- or over-reporting sexual activity.

 

Among the most interesting findings:

 

· 60.3% of females age 15-17 and 52.4% of males age 15-17 reported having never had sexual contact with another person (defined as oral, anal, or vaginal sex).

· 1% of females and 1.8% of males 30-44 years old reported never having had sexual contact with another person.

· The median female 15-44 reports having had 3.3 sexual partners in her lifetime, and the median male reports having had 5.6 in theirs.

·4.6% of married men reported having multiple sexual partners in the last 12 months, including 1.3% who reported having four or more partners over that span. 2.8% and 0.6% of women reported 2+ and 4+ sexual partners respectively.

· 11.2% of females and 6.2% of males 15-44 report having had sexual contact with a partner of the same sex in their lifetimes.

 

Sports polling: The divides in political polling are of course nowhere near as intense and entrenched as polling from the world of sports. Some recent activity in sports polling:

 

· Ahead of the 2011 Super Bowl, Marist found that 74% of people watch the Super Bowl for the game, (including 84% of women and 63% of men).

· Seton Hall reports that people think by a 49%-23% margin, the NFL labor dispute will be resolved in time for next season.

· As of June 2010, Michael Vick was named the most disliked person in sports by people, followed by Al Davis, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tiger Woods.

· Derek Jeter was called the most overrated baseball player by his peers in a 2009 survey of Major League Baseball players. No word on changes in this number since Jeter signed a contract that guarantees him $51 million dollars in the next three years.

 

Crazy kids and their cell phones and computers: For those of you receiving email service under a rock, we report that the public continues to adopt new technology at a breathtaking pace. A couple findings:

· Pew finds that 85% of adults own cell phones.  This number was 65% in November, 2004 and includes more than 92% of adults under 46 and 48% of adults over 75 years old.

o   More than three quarters of those cell phone owners take pictures with their cameras, and 72% send and receive text messages, the two most popular cell phone activities besides talking.

o   As of the first half of 2010, the CDC estimated that 26.6% of households only had cellphones and were no longer reachable by landline telephone, compared to only 12.9% that were reachable by only cellphone and not by landline.

· Also according to Pew: 47% of adults own an iPod or other MP3 player, compared to 11% in January 2005.

· More people own desktop computers (59%) than laptops (52%), but among 18-34 year olds that trend is reversed, as 70% own laptops and only 57% own desktops. The trend is also unsurprisingly towards laptops: in 2006 less than 30% of people had laptops while almost 70% had desktops.

· 8% of people 65-74 years old (and 3% 75 or older) own a video game system.

 

Only half of Americans don't think they are good at sleeping? Only 42% of adults age 25-55 call themselves "great sleepers", according to the National Sleep Foundation, who we assume is on the case. Other facts about people's bedtime routines:

 

· The average American's nightly slumber dropped from 7 hours in 2001 to 6.7 hours in 2009.

· Also according to the National Sleep Foundation, children from age 3 months to 5th grade are not getting their recommended amount of sleep.

 

Plurality of public believes in strict creationism for humans: Gallup found in December that 40% of adults, when given a choice, believe that "God created humans pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so". 38% believe that humans developed over millions of years with God guiding the process, while 16% believe in evolution and believe God had no role in it.

 

·47% of voters with no college education believe that humans were created 10,000 years ago as-is, compared to 43% who think humans evolved over millions of years (with or without God)

·By a 74%-22% margin, voters with a postgraduate education believe in evolution (God-guided or not).

· According to Pew, 97% of scientists believe in evolution in a question with slightly different wording ("Humans and other living things have evolved over time" or "Human beings and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time").

o   However, only 60% of the public believe that scientists generally agree that humans have evolved.

 

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

 

192,000 jobs added in February, dipping unemployment numbers: The BLS released their monthly jobs report showing that unemployment is down to 8.9%, below 9%. The economy added 192,000 jobs in February. This month there are also 217,000 less workers unemployed for 6 months or more, a drop of 3.5%.

 

Anger in government subsides: Voters tell Pew  that they are less angry at the federal government than before the midterm elections: 14% are angry, compared with 23% then. This includes Republicans falling from 33% being angry at the federal government to 16% now.

 

Actions voters support to cut the deficit: The NBC and Wall Street Journal asked voters a list of deficit-cutting measures they would support. The most popular: raising taxes on people earning more than $1 million per year (81% acceptable), ending earmarks (78%), eliminating weapons programs the Dept. of Defense says aren't necessary (76%), eliminating tax credits for oil and gas companies (74%), and phasing out the Bush tax cuts for those earning $250,000 or more (68%)

 

Public now split on legalizing marijuana: WhenPew polled people on attitudes towards legalized pot, they found them split 46%-45% on legalizing marijuana. The only group strongly opposed are adults 65 and older, who oppose legalization 66%-30%.

 

Americans continue march towards support of equal rights for homosexuals: In the same poll, Pew reports that voters are split on legalizing gay marriage 46%-45%. In 1996, to contrast, voters opposed gay marriage 65%-27%. A majority of Democrats and Independents now favor gay marriage.

 

Obama gets high marks on Egypt: Voters approve of the job Obama is doing handling unrest in Egypt and other Arab countries 55%-30%, according to NBC and the Wall Street Journal.

PUBLIC POLLING 

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Gallup

3/3-5/11

Adults

47%

45%

Pew

2/22-3/1

Adults

51%

39%

Quinnipiac

2/21-28/11

Reg Voters

46%

46%

 

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Right Direction

Wrong Track

NBC/WSJ

2/24-28/11

Adults

31%

60%

NBC/WSJ

1/13-17/11

Adults

35%

56%

NBC/WSJ

12/9-13/10

Adults

28%

63%

 

APPROVAL OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Quinnipiac

2/21-28/11

Adults

33%

57%

 

APPROVAL OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Quinnipiac

2/21-28/11

Adults

34%

54%

 

 

UNEMPLOYMENT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Unemployment rate

Discouraged workers* (thousands)

Part time for economic reasons (thousands)

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Feb 2011

Adults

8.9%

1,020

8,340

BLS

Jan 2011

Adults

9.0%

993

8,407

BLS

Dec 2010

Adults

9.4%

1,318

8,931

BLS

Nov 2010

Adults

9.8%

1,282

8,960

 

*Defined by the BLS as persons not looking for a job because they believe no jobs are available for them

 

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

1/21/11

Adults

32%

24%

36%

 

 

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