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February 15, 2011

Anzalone Liszt Research

National Polling Summary

Friends,


Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
 
This week, we look at American's opinions on the recent pro-democracy protests in Egypt and what Americans think about increased self-determination in the Middle East.  
 
Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.


 
John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

___________________________________________________________________________________

STORY THIS WEEK: AMERICANS STAND WITH EGYPTIANS

 

 

As the democracy movement in Egypt moves into its next phase following Hosni Mubarak's resignation, new polling shows that the American public was closely following the protests, is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the supporters of democracy, and approve of President Obama's handling of the situation. There are of course partisan differences in Americans' views-for example, Republicans tend to be more critical of President Obama's handling of the situation and less supportive of democracy in Egypt specifically and the Middle East in general.

 

According to a recent Pew poll, 86% of Americans had read or heard about the protests, with nearly half (48%) indicating that they heard "a lot."  Not only was the public aware of the protests, but they were following them as well, with two thirds of the country claiming to be following the protests "very" or "fairly" closely (caveat: the poll fielded Feb. 3-6, and this number certainly has and will continue to shift). Americans are not as focused on the story as much as some other international events though-the 32% that said they had followed the protests very closely was lower than the 60% who said the same about the earthquake in Haiti, the 49% who said the same about the rescued Chilean miners, and it is similar to the 35% that followed December's tension between South and North Korea very closely.

 

In the showdown between Mubarak and the protesters, the American public overwhelmingly sided with the latter, as 82% indicated in a Gallup poll that they were sympathetic to the demonstrators in Tahrir Square and two-thirds said the now-imminent political changes would be "mostly good" for Egypt. However, views on the impact on the United States are less clear, as Gallup found that 60% believed that the demonstrations would be "mostly good" for America. Pew found Americans are by and large unconvinced this will have an impact on the US, however: a combined 58% think it will either have not much of an effect (36%) or don't know either way (22%).

 

Striking this balance between promoting democracy while protecting U.S. interests can be difficult, but the public gives solid marks to how President Obama and his administration are dealing with it so far. Pew finds that 57% believe the Administration is handling the situation "about right," with a quarter evenly divided on whether it is doing too little or too much for the protestors, and 20% unsure. Gallup also finds good ratings for the President, as they approve of his performance by a 15-point margin.

 

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

 

Economic optimism the US is at a three-year high: On the heels of the country's lowest unemployment numbers in , Gallup finds 41% of people saying the economy is getting better, the highest in three years (up from a low of 9% in mid-2008).

 

Federal taxes at their lowest since 1950: Due in part to Obama's tax cuts for 95% of Americans, in 2010 federal taxes this year were the lowest share of the US economy in sixty years.

 

Obama beats all comers in hypothetical 2012 matchups: As of today, Fox News shows Obama beating all of his potential 2012 rivals they put him up against. Faring best against Obama: Mitt Romney, who trails 48%-41%. Faring worst: Sarah Palin, who trails him 56%-35%. Obama also handily beats Gingrich, Bush, and Huckabee.

 

We're living in the future: Twenty-six percent of Americans say they used their cell phones to learn about or participate in the 2010 midterm elections, according to Pew. Cell phone usage for political participation is higher among younger, African American, and college-educated voters.

 

Religious affiliation, American public versus Congress: Pew also has a comparison of the religious makeup of the US compared to the makeup of the U.S. Congress (House and Senate). Highest proportion of members of Congress, compared with the US population: Presbyterians, Catholics, and Jews. Lowest proportion compared with the US population: nondenominational Christians, Baptists, and nonreligious voters.

 

Rahm Emanuel holds a convincing lead in Chicago mayor's race: ABC7, the local Chicago ABC affiliate, finds Rahm Emanuel holds 54% of the vote. This total would put him over the 50% threshold he needs in this month's election to avoid a runoff. Rahm holds a convincing multi-racial coalition, as he holds a majority among white and African-American voters as well as a 47% plurality with Hispanic voters. Gery Chico is in 2nd place with 14%, followed by Miguel Del Valle at 8% and Carol Moseley Braun at 6%

 

Only 37% of voters want to repeal the new health care law: Pew finds that by a 55%-37% margin, voters do not want to repeal the new health care law. Just as many voters want to expand the law (35%) as repeal it (37%).

 

New Hampshire voters strongly support keeping gay marriage legal: A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll commissioned by the New Hampshire Freedom to Marry Coalition found that 59% of Granite State voters support legal gay marriage and 63% oppose overturning the gay marriage law already on the books in New Hampshire. Forty-nine percent of voters strongly oppose overturning it, compared to only 23% who strongly favor overturning the law.

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Approve

Disapprove

Gallup

2/10-12/11

Adults

49%

42%

Ipsos/Reuters

2/4-7/11

Adults

51%

46%

Pew

2/2-7/11

Adults

49%

42%

 

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Ipsos/Reuters

2/4-7/11

Adults

38%

57%

Ipsos/Reuters

1/7-10/11

Adults

36%

59%

Ipsos/Reuters

12/2-5/10

Adults

29%

62%

 

 

HEALTH CARE DEFUNDING

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Cut off funding - Approve

Cut off funding - Disapprove

Kaiser Family Foundation

1/4-14/11

Adults

33%

62%

 

 

UNEMPLOYMENT

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Unemployment rate

Discouraged workers* (thousands)

Part time for economic reasons (thousands)

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Jan 2011

Adults

9.0%

993

8,407

BLS

Dec 2010

Adults

9.4%

1,318

8,931

BLS

Nov 2010

Adults

9.8%

1,282

8,960

 

*Defined by the BLS as persons not looking for a job because they believe no jobs are available for them

 

PARTY SELF ID

Polling Firm

Date

Sample

Dem

Rep

Ind / other

Pollster.com Trend

1/21/11

Adults

32%

25%

37%

 

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