After a politically difficult (though legislatively successful) 2010, President Obama is starting off 2011 on the right foot. He's received high marks for his handling of the Tucson tragedy, almost universal praise from his State of the Union speech, and his numbers on important macro-measures like the presidential job rating are improving. Additionally, most economic metrics continue to improve - which won't change the President's numbers overnight, but will certainly help expand and solidify his support as good economic news continues (as most experts believe it will) through 2011 and beyond. 

Politics broadly - and polling numbers specifically - are especially volatile in the age of cable news, blogs, and twitter, and no doubt the next 20 months will see their share of turmoil. However, the response to the State of the Union and the broader numbers we're seeing in January 2011 could ultimately prove to have set the course that determined the outcome in November 2012.

State of the Union Reaction

The 2011 State of the Union was one of the more memorable in recent history. Coming shortly after the Tucson shootings, many members of Congress chose to eschew the traditional partisan seating - and instead literally crossed the aisle to sit with a member of the other party. The juxtaposition of the relative collegiality of the 2011 State of the Union with Congressman Joe Wilson's "You Lie!" outburst during President Obama's September 2009 speech to Congress is especially stark - and encouraging. Ideally, future SOTU speeches will employ a similar bipartisan tone, and enjoy a similarly warm bipartisan response.

Traditional landline polling and online polling shortly after the SOTU found that viewers gave the speech very high marks.

• A landline telephone poll conducted by CNN/ORC showed 84% of viewers had a positive reaction to the President's speech, with 52% identifying their reaction as "very positive". More than three-quarters (77%) of viewers feel the President's policies will move the country in the right direction. Solid majorities of viewers also believe President Obama's policies will "improve the economy" (68%), "create or save millions of jobs" (61%), "increase cooperation between Democrats and Republicans" (61%), and "reduce the federal budget deficit" (57%).
• An online poll sponsored by CBSNEWS found similar numbers. More than 9 of 10 (91%) viewers approved of the policies articulated in the SOTU speech, and 80%+ approved of his specific proposals on the economy (82%), the deficit (80%), and Afghanistan (83%). And 62% of viewers believe both parties will work together in a more effective way than in the recent past - a striking number given the traditional cynicism voters display toward promises of bipartisanship.

The importance of an online poll of speech viewers shouldn't be overstated. The instant response from the SOTU was extremely impressive, but similar measures in previous years have shown a similar phenomenon. As with most presidential speeches, supporters of the President are more likely to view a speech than detractors. That trend held this year, as Democrats comprised a disproportionate amount of viewers. However, a majority of viewers - according to both landline and online surveys - were either Republicans or Independents. President Obama's ability to connect in such a potent way with this audience is a promising way for the President to symbolically turn the political page from the 2010 cycle to 2011.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

The President's numbers continue to inch up - Pollingreport.com finds the average of the eleven publicly released polls conducted in 2011 (51% Approve / 44% Disapprove) shows President Obama's job approval over 50%, a key benchmark for any presidential re-election. Conversely, the last four polls conducted in 2010 revealed that more voters disapproved of the job the President was doing than approved of it. For example, an NBC/WSJ poll in early December had the President's job approval at 45% Approve / 48% Disapprove. The most recent NBC/WSJ poll (Jan 13-17) showed the President's job approval at 53% Approve / 41% Disapprove - an 8-point increase in the President's job rating, an impressive rise in just a few weeks. Few measures will be as critical to the President's political health as his job rating - and it merits continued monitoring over the coming months - but it seems possible that the President's numbers turned the corner in the past few weeks.

Investors also approve of the job the President is doing - Bloomberg recently released their quarterly poll of 1,000 investors, and found a majority (53%) view the President favorably - up from 49% in November. And a similar 53% of investors believe the U.S. economy is "improving".

Voters send mixed messages on the debt - A recent CNN/ORC poll found that, by a nearly 3:1 margin, voters favor "a legislative agenda that would reduce the size of the government" (71% Favor / 25% Oppose). While strong majorities favor cutting "aid to foreign countries" (81%), "pensions and benefits for retired government workers" (61%), and "welfare programs in general" (56%), voters are more protective of specific safety-net spending. Majorities would prefer to "prevent significant cuts" to veterans' benefits (85%), Medicare (81%), Social Security (78%), "education programs" (75%), Medicaid (70%), and "assistance to unemployed workers" (61%). Unsurprisingly, voters are much more enthusiastic about cutting spending in the abstract than they are when specific programs are placed on the cutting block.

Early Polling and Developments Offer Good News for Senate Dems  - Most Senate races won't fully gel for months, but there have been early developments that should make Senate Democrats more bullish on maintaining control. Recent polling shows Democratic incumbents Debbie Stabenow (MI), Bill Nelson (FL), Sherrod Brown (OH), Claire McCaskill (MO), and Joe Manchin (WV) leading possible Republican opponents. These polls are extremely early and not especially telling, but it is worth noting that Democrats were trailing in early 2010-cycle polling in states like Arkansas, Kentucky, Ohio, New Hampshire, and others competitive races that went Republican on Election Day. 

Perhaps more importantly, Republicans appear to have already missed on top recruits in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and may struggle to find a top tier candidate in Nevada and West Virginia. The Senate landscape ensures Democrats will mostly play defense this cycle, but the NRSC cannot be happy with the way many of the competitive races are shaping up thus far.

DailyKos/PPP to release complete raw polling data - The progressive website DailyKos is partnering with polling firm Public Policy Polling to conduct frequent 2012 polling, and will publicly release their full raw data online. John Anzalone is among those quoted in this Rollcall article, applauding the embrace of transparency but also pointing out there is limited practical utility to the data dump. 

Rahm Emanuel back on ballot, in accord with public opinion - Most political observers have followed the legal wrangling involved in the composition of the Chicago mayoral ballot.  The Illinois Supreme Court resolved the issue last week, and ordered Emanuel's name to appear on the ballot.  Late 2010 Anzalone Liszt polling found, that by a 3:1 margin, Chicago voters believe Rahm Emanuel should be allowed on the ballot (62% Yes / 20% No).

PUBLIC POLLING