Friends,
Below you will find the weekly Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
This week, we review data on President Obama's improved standing following the lame duck session.
Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.
- John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt
STORY OF THE WEEK: DECEMBER A GOOD MONTH FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA
Republicans certainly had a good November, but it looks like President Obama prevailed in December. A recent Gallup tracker put his approval rating at 50%, his highest rating in the tracker in six months and a 9-point increase from his rating in late October.
This improvement appears to be driven by his performance in the lame duck session, where he helped to deliver tax cuts for the middle class, extended benefits for the unemployed, repealed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and reached an agreement on the START nuclear arms treaty. Americans are strongly supportive of the legislation passed during the lame duck, as three-quarters of the public back both the tax deal and allowing gays to serve openly in the military. A recent CNN/Opinion research poll shows that enthusiasm for the tax deal can clearly be attributed to the elements that Obama pushed for and exists in spite of the ones that Republicans championed. While there was overwhelming support for extending the middle-class tax cuts (89% favor), extending unemployment benefits (76%) and a one year reduction in Social Security taxes (62%), less than 40% of Americans favored the Republican components of extending the tax cuts for those earning over $250,000 a year or reducing the estate tax.
Not only did President Obama rack up a number of popular legislative victories but he also outperformed Republicans in the eyes of the public as well. A strong majority (56%) approved of the President's performance in the lame duck, 14 points above the percentage who said the same about Republicans in Congress (42%). Much of this discrepancy may be due to the public seeing President Obama as doing a much better job of reaching across the aisle than Republicans. Currently, 59% say that Obama is doing enough to cooperate with the GOP, a 12-point increase from last February, and more than double the mere 28% that believes that Republicans in Congress are doing enough to cooperate with him.
Clearly the lame duck session was a major success for the President. Not only did he achieve a number of key legislative victories, but he also improved his standing with the public by bolstering his image as a leader who puts results ahead of partisan politics.
OTHER NEWS
Views of the Parties: Despite the walloping that Democrats took in November, the party still earns higher favorable ratings than Republicans (47% to 42%).
Democratic Party ID Falls: A recent Gallup poll found that the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats has fallen to 31 points, a 5-point drop from two years ago and its lowest level in 22-years. Despite this drop however, the share identifying as Democrats is still two points above the share identifying as Republican.
Congressional Party Leaders: John Boehner's favorable rating is currently 12 points higher than his unfavorable one (36% favorable / 24% unfavorable), but a plurality of 40% still don't know him well enough to rate him. Nancy Pelosi meanwhile, is viewed unfavorably by a 17-point margin (34% favorable / 51% unfavorable), which is consistent with her ratings throughout the past year.
Republican Majority: A majority (52%) believes that Republicans won't do any better or worse running Congress than Democrats, with the rest split on whether they will be a step forward or backward (26% better / 22% worse).
Obama vs. GOP policies: In another positive sign for President Obama, 55% of the public thinks his policies will move the country in the right direction, a 6-point increase from last June and 11 points above the percentage who believe the same about Republicans in Congress.
Opposition to Healthcare Law: A recent CNN poll found that 54% of Americans oppose the new healthcare law, but it also showed that over a fifth of those voters (13%) oppose the law because it was not liberal enough. The same poll found that 60% oppose the individual mandate, a 7-point increase since last February.
Healthcare Repeal: While polls show that the public is split when posed with the choice of being for or against repeal, when more options are offered, it becomes evident that only a small minority of the public favors outright repeal. A December ABC News/Washington Post poll found that just 15% favor repealing all of the law, while 62% either support it or said that Congress should adopt a wait and see approach before repealing any part of it.
Impact of Recession: Here is a great chart from the Atlantic on the impact of the recession on our lives.
Obama and Hillary Clinton Most Admired: President Obama was found by USA Today/Gallup to be the most admired man in America for the third straight year. Obama was chosen by 22% of Americans, well ahead of any other options. George W. Bush was second with 5%. Hillary Clinton was the most admired woman for the 9th straight year with 17%, followed by Sarah Palin (12%) and Oprah Winfrey (11%)
PUBLIC POLLING
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PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Date
|
Sample
|
Approve
|
Disapprove
|
|
Pollster.com Trend
|
1/6/11
|
Adults + Reg. voters
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46%
|
50%
|
|
DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Date
|
Sample
|
Right Direction
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Wrong Track
|
|
Pollster.com Trend
|
1/6/11
|
Adults + Reg. voters
|
27%
|
62%
|
|
SUPPORT FOR TAX DEAL
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|
Congress has passed and President Obama has signed into law a bill that would extend tax cuts for all Americans, reduce the estate tax, extend unemployment benefits, and reduce the Social Security tax that workers pay. Taking into account all of those provisions, do you favor or oppose that bill?
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Favor
|
Oppose
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Poll December 17 to 19, 2010.
Adults. MoE=3.5 percentage points
|
75%
|
23%
|
|
SUPPORT FOR COMPONENTS OF TAX DEAL
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|
Polling Firm
|
Question
|
Favor
|
Oppose
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Poll December 17 to 19, 2010.
Adults. MoE=3.5 percentage points
|
A two-year extension of tax cuts for families who make less than 250 thousand dollars a year
|
89%
|
11%
|
|
An extension of unemployment benefits for workers who lose their jobs
|
76%
|
22%
|
|
A one-year reduction in the Social Security tax that workers pay
|
62%
|
36%
|
|
A reduction in the tax paid by the heirs of some wealthy Americans when they die
|
39%
|
59%
|
|
A two-year extension of tax cuts for families who make more than 250,000 a year
|
37%
|
62%
|
|
LAME DUCK PERFORMANCE: OBAMA AND GOP
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|
Polling Firm
|
Question
|
Approve
|
Disapprove
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Poll December 17 to 19, 2010.
Adults. MoE=3.5 percentage points
|
Barack Obama
|
56%
|
41%
|
|
The Republicans in Congress
|
42%
|
53%
|
|
BIPARTISANSHIP: OBAMA AND GOP
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Question
|
Yes, doing enough
|
No, not enough
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Poll December 17 to 19, 2010.
Adults. MoE=3.5 percentage points
|
Is Barack Obama doing enough to cooperate with the Republicans in Congress, or not?
|
56%
|
41%
|
|
Are the Republicans in Congress doing enough to cooperate with Barack Obama, or not?
|
42%
|
53%
|
|
PARTY FAVORABILITY
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Question
|
Favorable
|
Disapprove
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Poll December 17 to 19, 2010.
adults. MoE=3.5 percentage points
|
The Democratic Party
|
47%
|
47%
|
|
The Republican Party
|
42%
|
50%
|
|
PARTY SELF ID
|
|
Polling Firm
|
Date
|
Sample
|
Dem
|
Rep
|
Ind / other
|
|
Pollster.com Trend
|
1/6/10
|
Adults
|
33%
|
26%
|
35%
|
