STORY OF THE WEEK: HOW ACCURATE WERE THE POLLS?

The benefit of elections is that pollsters are afforded the opportunity to assess the quality and accuracy of their polls. In this respect, 2010 was pretty good year for the polling community overall, with a few notable exceptions.

Looking at the national generic congressional ballot, many of the top public pollsters were very close to hitting both the final exit poll ballot margin (R+7) and the GOP percentage of the two-party vote (53%). This includes telephone surveys from Pew (R+6, 53%), NBC/WSJ (R+6, 53%), CBS/NYT (R+6, 53%), Ipsos/Reuters (R+6, 53%) and two internet-based surveys by YouGov/Polimetrix (R+7, 54%) and Zogby (R+5, 53%). A few polls overstated GOP performance, including CNN/ORC (R+10, 55%), Rasmussen (R+12, 57%), and Fox/Opinion Dynamics (R+13, 57%). The most notable and surprising outlier, however, was USA Today/Gallup, which showed Republicans with a whopping 15-point edge and 58% of the two-party vote. That would have translated into something on the order of a 90-seat pickup for the GOP, well above the projected 64-seat net pickup that the GOP will show when undecided races are called.

We noted earlier in the cycle that a pollster's choice of methodology has a clear effect on the numbers, and this was indeed the case with the top public polls in 2010. According to data complied by Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com, the average predicted margin for surveys that sampled both landline and cell phones was R+6, compared to R+10 for surveys that sampled only landline phones. In other words, polls that included cell phones were more accurate.

The difference between phone, internet, and automated ("robo") surveys was less pronounced overall, with some exceptions. At the national level, the final Pollster.com trendline for the generic congressional ballot margin was R+7 for both telephone surveys (landline-only and landline/cell) and internet surveys, and R+8 for automated surveys. At the state level, the three most accurate polling firms each employed a different calling mode: Quinnipiac (phone, 21 polls, 3.3 points of average error); SurveyUSA (automated, 30 polls, 3.5 points), and YouGov (internet, 35 polls, 3.5 points). Rasmussen, by far the most prolific state-level pollster, was also by far the most inaccurate (105 polls, 5.8 points of average error), according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Additionally, there was some divergence between polls released by Democratic and Republican firms this cycle. On balance, Democratic firms were more accurate at the Senate level, while Republican firms were more accurate at the House district level. At the Senate level, Democratic firms exhibited a fairly small 3.9-point average bias in favor of the Democratic candidate, compared to a 6-point bias in favor of the Republican candidate among GOP firms. At the House level, however, Republican firms showed 1 point of bias for GOP candidates compared to 9.7 points for Democratic firms-though again, some individual firms bucked this trend. This includes Anzalone Liszt Research, which was the second-most accurate among Democratic polling firms that released more than five polls this cycle.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

ALR's "Beat the Pollsters" Contest: We have narrowed the pool of over 600 down to several contestants, though we will not have a winner until every race is called. We hope to have a winner by our next newsletter, when we'll also release other findings from the data.

DADT: A new Quinnipiac poll finds a solid majority of voters support repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy (58% to 34%). This includes a majority of military families (55% to 38%).

Climate change: A new Pew poll finds that 53% of Republicans say there is no solid evidence that the earth is warming (70% of Tea Party GOPers say this). Interestingly, only 38% of Republicans said this in 2007. (h/t Political Wire)

Holiday shopping: In the coming weeks, ALR partner CivicScience will be releasing a series of reports on young consumers (ages 18-29), their holiday shopping plans, and their favorite consumer brands. The reports will include data from tens of thousands of young consumers on hundreds of the top consumer brands. You can find more information here.

Did you know? 251 Members of Congress are millionaires.

Budget deficit: Only one-quarter of Americans think the bi-partisan Deficit Commission's recommendations are a "good idea" (40% say "bad idea" and 30% do not have an opinion).

Afghanistan: Half of voters think the U.S. should not be involved in Afghanistan (50% to 44%). Independents oppose by a 54% to 40% margin. GOPers support it (64% to 31%) while Dems oppose (62% to 33%).

Cell phones: The same poll finds a solid majority supports a federal ban on the use of cell phones while driving (63% to 34%), even when using a "hands free" device.

Public knowledge: While three-quarters of Americans say the GOP "won" the 2010 elections, less than half (46%) know the GOP actually took over control of the U.S. House. 

Dem consultants weigh in: A new Global Strategy Group report finds that 64% of Democratic consultants interviewed credit the Tea Party for energizing the Republican base. Almost three-quarters say Dem losses were attributable to the weak economy. 82% say Obama will not receive a primary challenge.

Obama leading 2012 matchups: A new Politico poll finds Obama leading every listed potential 2012 Republican challenger (Palin +13, Romney +8, Pawlenty +18, Huckabee +6, and Barbour +20).

Renewed confidence: Six-in-ten Americans think the "worst is behind us" when it comes to the recession (35% think the worst is ahead of us).

Election post mortem: We think this post-election analysis by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin is one of the best.

Twitter: The NY Times released this neat interactive graphic on candidate tweets.

Redistricting: SwingStateProject has produced a great chart showing party control in all 50 states.

Reactions to GOP win: According to a new Pew report, Americans were noticeably happier when the Democrats took control of Congress in 2006 (60% happy, 24% unhappy) and when the GOP took power in 1994 (57% to 31%) than they are today (48% happy, 34% unhappy).

...more reactions: Americans are also divided (41% to 37%) on the GOP's policies and plans for the future. This stands in sharp relief to views of the Democrats on this question in 2006 (50% to 21%) and the Republicans in 1994 (52% to 28%).

Who should lead? By a clear margin, Pew finds that Americans think President Obama, not Republicans, should take the lead in solving the nation's problems (49% to 30%).

PUBLIC POLLING

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