STORY OF THE WEEK: There is still (a little) time on the clock for Democrats

Democrats are down, but with about a week remaining in the campaign cycle they're not out yet. Recent data suggest that the Democrats have been running competitively with the Republicans when it comes to the air and ground game, and there are plenty of voters on the table. In order to win over these voters, Democrats will need to find their voice on an economic message. More importantly, the Democratic field and GOTV operation needs to do what it does best in close races: get Democrats to the polls.

A recent Pew Research survey provides an early indication that Democrats are hustling to compete with the GOP in terms of voter contact. Despite the unprecedented level of campaign spending for a midterm election year---some from anonymous corporate donations to Republicans---about the same number of people say they have seen campaign ads as compared to 2006 (88% to 89%). Nearly eight-in-ten (78% overall; 80% for Republicans; 74% for Democrats) say they have seen about the same number of ads from Republicans and Democrats.

As for other forms of voter contact this year, Republicans have an early but small edge. For example, 73% of Republicans say they have received a piece of campaign mail, compared to 70% of Democrats. Republicans also hold small advantages on robo-calls (R+12), personal phone calls (R+8), and emails (R+1), but trail on door knocks (D+2). The parties are even when it comes text messages.

While there is some evidence that the Democrats' efforts are starting to pay off, the party still has ground to cover. On the one hand, Pew finds that Democratic interest in the election has increased by eight points over the past month, from 41% to 49%. On the other hand, while Republican enthusiasm has plateaued over this period it still exceeds Democratic enthusiasm by 15-points (64%). Moreover, 74% of Republicans say they plan to vote compared to 70% of Democrats (in 2006, the parties were effectively tied on this measure). Most telling, Republicans enjoy a 6-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot in live-caller, telephone surveys (49% to 43%).

The most recent Politico-Battleground survey reveals a curious thing about the generic congressional ballot, however. Republicans are leading Democrats despite their weaknesses on key issues facing voters, not because of their strengths (see LRP's analysis of the data here). Voters are actually split between the parties on key issues, such as turning the economy around (R+1), creating jobs (even), handling health care (D+1), handling Social Security (R+4), and sharing the electorate's values (R+2). More importantly, undecided voters---who comprise roughly 8% to 10% of the electorate---actually give Democrats an advantage on jobs (D+7), turning the economy around (D+6), and handling Social Security (D+15).

Over the next week, Democrats need to focus on driving home their economic message if they hope to win over remaining undecided voters and pull out the base. We offer several recommendations on this front: 

• Frame the choice: Voters hold both parties in low esteem and they are pessimistic about the future. Many see "bad" and "worse" as their options. Democrats need to reinforce that voters have a better choice-between a party that fights for the middle class and small businesses and has a plan to revive an economy that the Republicans destroyed, or a party that fights for millionaires and companies that ship jobs overseas and has no plan and no new ideas to move this country forward.

• Get specific: Democrats need to lay down a marker on the economy and reinforce clear contrasts between themselves and the GOP. This includes differentiating the parties on tax cuts (middle class and small businesses v. millionaires), jobs (end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas v. extend tax cuts for job outsourcers), health care (families and children v. health insurance companies), retirement (protect Social Security v. privatize it), education (protect college funding v. cut it), and financial reform (hold Wall St. accountable v. letting Wall St. write its own rules).

• Connect the dots: A clear majority of voters are genuinely concerned that the flood of anonymous campaign donations is compromising the integrity of the political process (see the most recent NBC/WSJ analysis, for example). Yet rather than suggest that corporations are buying the election, Democrats should reinforce that the GOP supports allowing big corporations and special interests to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections---and that these benefactors will expect a return on their investment.  
  

• Call the GOP's bluffs: The Democrats should not hesitate to call out the GOP on cynical and half-baked promises, such as simultaneously cutting taxes for everyone and slashing the budget deficit. And they should confront the creeping amnesia about the preceding decade, in which Republican spending on wars of choice and tax cuts for the rich contributed more to our recession and budget deficit than all of the Democrats' efforts to revive the economy, combined.

Democrats have less than a week to find their voice and make this choice clear.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

Taxpayers earn a profit on TARP:  According to Bloomberg, taxpayers earned an 8.2% return on the bailout, or about $25 billion dollars.

Dissatisfaction: A new Gallup survey finds just 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country. 

Rising star: Lauren Hogan, one of four finalists in the Washington Post's "Pundit Contest" (and wife of ALR's Matt Hogan) has a witty and insightful take on the GOP's "Pledge to America" The next round of voting is Thursday.

Great ad: Check out this new ad for Nevada gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, with Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.

Hidden tax cuts: About one-in-ten Americans think the Obama administration has lowered taxes for most Americans. 95% of Americans received a tax cut, however (h/t Political Wire).

Incumbency: A new NBC/WSJ poll finds that by a 52% to 35% margin, voters think their current representative is part of the solution, not part of the problem. 

The youth vote: Young voters are far less energized to vote this cycle, according to two recent polls (here and here).Only 45% of registered voters in a recent Pew Research poll say they are likely to vote, compared to 71% of all registered voters.

Divided government: First Read provides an interesting historical perspective on divided government. They write "the longest one party has controlled those three bodies is just for four years (1977-1981 and 2003-2007)" and each time unified control has been achieved "it ended in a wave election for the other side (1980, 1994, and 2006)."

FIRED UP! Need something to get you fired up to vote this year. Check out this great ad by the OneWisconsinNow.

Health care: The NBC/WSJ poll finds that while 46% believe the health care law is a bad idea (36% say "good idea), a majority (52%) prefers a candidate who believes the law should be given a chance to work (45% prefer a candidate who will repeal the law). 

Party of big business: The same NBC/WSJ poll also finds that 68% think the Republicans are more concerned with the interests of large corporations, compared to 41% of the same for Democrats and 31% for President Obama.

Diversion: Everyone needs a non-political book to read post-election while you are on the beach or in the mountains. "Family Meeting" from first-time novelist and ALR friend Miles DeMott is just the answer. 

PUBLIC POLLING

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