STORY OF THE WEEK: GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Polling from the last week of September provided some positive signs for the Democrats, but they are still in the battle for their political lives. Several polls show an increase in enthusiasm among the Democratic base, even as Republicans continue to hold advantages on core metrics of electoral health-namely, the generic Congressional ballot. But October is the longest month in politics. The Democrats have posted excellent fundraising totals recently, and they are using this advantage to take control of their races and define the midterms on their terms.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week drew the most attention because it showed a slight narrowing in the measure of enthusiasm between the parties. This change was driven by gains among African Americans (+6) and Hispanics (+11), two groups that helped propel the Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Gallup detected a small bump as well. Their polling showed a 3-point (net) gain in enthusiasm for Democrats between early September and today     (-23 to -20).

Looking at a recent Democracy Corps poll, we can see why having an energized base is so important. Among so-called "Obama surge" or "drop-off" voters, the Democrats have a 7-point ballot advantage (47% to 40%). Among "likely" and self-described "very likely" voters, however, the Democrats face deficits (-7 and -10 points, respectively). NBC/WSJ shows a similar deficit among "very interested" voters (-9).

The NBC/WSJ poll also detected a decline in the Republican generic ballot advantage, from nine points in August (49% to 40%) to just three points now (46% to 43%). This finding tracks closely to the Pollster.com trend line (44.7% to 43.9%, excluding internet polls), as well as our experience on the ground. While we are always cautious of relying too much on anecdotal information, we have indeed seen a number of Democratic candidates strengthen their position over the past week or so. In our view, the main reason we may be seeing a slight rebound for the Democrats is that they are starting taking control of the debate through campaign ads and mail.

And they have the reserves to continue doing so through Election Day. The DNC raised more than $16 million in September, posting its highest monthly fundraising total of the 2010 cycle. Additionally, the DCCC (House) outraised NRCC by about $2 million in August ($8.3m to $6.6m), and it holds a wide cash-on-hand (CoH) advantage ($39.1m to $25.6m). For its part, the DSCC (Senate) raised $7.4 million to the NRSC's $6.1 million in August, and the two committees are nearly even in CoH ($22.9 million to $24.5 million, respectively).

Even so, the Democrats face difficult political headwinds. Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot, have a more energized base, and pull over the lion's share of independents. President Obama's job performance rating is holding steady but it is below 50% (46% approve, 50% disapprove in Pollster.com's recent trend line). And Democrats lost an opportunity to frame the race in more advantageous terms after tabling the vote on extending tax cuts for the middle class. Even so, Democrats have only recently put their campaigns into high gear and they still have the time, and money, to energize dormant supporters and define the opposition on their terms.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

Trusting Dems: A recent Newsweek poll finds that voters say they trust Dems more than Reps to handle "pretty much every problem currently facing the country," including "federal spending (by 4 points), taxes (by 5), and the economy (by 10)."

Ad Watch: Debbie Halvorson is up with this great seniors spot. The takeaway is classic.

Tax cuts: Here are a few of the reasons Democrats should pick a fight on the Bush tax cuts. This video by Austan Goolsbee, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, is fantastic as well (note the "big red eggs"). 

Wear a tie: Scott McAdams is out with this great ad in his U.S. Senate race.

Tea leaves: Gallup provides a nifty summary of key electoral indicators for the midterms.

National security: Matt Bennett and Jeremy Rosner are out with a compelling argument about why Democrats should run toward, not away from, from national security issues (though it's "still about the economy...")

Veep: If you like Joe Biden, or just want to know more his tenure, check out this profile in The Atlantic. 

Immigration reform: News Corp. founder and owner of Fox News, Rupert Murdoch, comes out in favor of comprehensive immigration reform.

Bubba: Bill Clinton reminds us again why he is a great surrogate on the campaign trail. His popularity rating is an impressive 55% favorable to 23% unfavorable. Sarah Palin's, in contrast, is 30% favorable to 48% unfavorable. (h/t Political Wire).

Young voters: Who says youth are tuning out? Lines for the president's rally at the University of Wisconsin stretched for over a mile, and "may (have) exceed(ed) those tallied in February 2008" during the presidential campaign. Check out our recent polling analysis (pdf) for Rock the Vote to see how Democrats can bring young adults back into the fold.  

Surprises: Fox News follows up their donation to the Republican Governor's Association with a $1 million dollar donation to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Cement hardening?: Nate Silver finds that U.S. Senate and gubernatorial candidates with a lead of 6-9 points in a simple polling average, with 30 days before the election, have an 89% chance of winning.

PUBLIC POLLING

JOHN ANZALONE IN POLITICO'S "ARENA"

Q: Is Rupert Murdoch's backing of comprehensive immigration reform a game-changer?

Maybe Murdoch could spend a million dollars defending Democrats who agree with his "pathway to citizenship" proposal but get attacked by Republicans who say they want amnesty for illegals. Now that would be a good use of his money.

Q: Is Obama's backyard strategy backfiring?

Where did this Washington myth come from that Barack Obama does not connect with regular voters? Is everyone's memory so short that they don't remember the 2008 elections and the crowds of literally tens of thousands that this guy attracted? Of course this guy connects with every day voters. And he still does as president. We just happen to be going through the worst economic times since the Great Depression, two wars and a financial system that collapsed. Sorry if the American people aren't all touchy-feely right now.

Q: Is there an anti-military bias on campus?

I think the Ivys should get off their elite high horses and realize that ROTC is the only way some kids get to pay for college. I am for the good old days when kids of all economic status were thrown in together for a year of military or voluntary service. It would make our country a better place.

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