STORY OF THE WEEK: WARNING SIGNS FOR THE DEMOCRATS

In politics, conventional wisdom is a hit or miss game. Yet with 74 days remaining in the election cycle, it's hard to disagree with the prevailing view that the Democrats are staring at heavy losses this year, and that control of the House is in play. Worse yet, the political environment has become even more treacherous over the past few weeks, with leading economic indicators pointing to a slowing economic recovery. Democrats have small window-but ample opportunity-to turn things around.

The economy is the albatross around Democrats' necks right now, and the past month has shown few signs of improvement on the order the country needs. Unemployment is above 9% for a record 15 months in a row. The U6 figure-a broader measure that includes discouraged and underemployed workers-was a whopping 16.5% in July. That's one-in-six Americans. This has taken a toll on consumer confidence, a crucial driver in the economy. The ABC News "Consumer Comfort" index is hovering near record levels at around the minus-50 mark (on a -100 to +100 scale)-what ABC pollster Gary Langer calls the "death zone." It is little wonder voters are pointing fingers the Democrats' way.

The slowing recovery has clear political implications for the party in power. Republicans are now posting modest, but statistically significant leads in most generic congressional ballot tests. The most recent Pollster.com trend estimate shows the GOP with a five point lead, 46% to 41%, with 12% undecided. This is up from a statistical dead heat just a few weeks back. And while a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal pollshows the GOP with a wide lead in the South (+21), compared to deficits in the Northeast (-25), Midwest (-11), and West (-1), we should remember that Democrats are defending plenty of "reddish" seats in every region, not just the South.

Voters' assessment of President Obama mirrors trends in the generic congressional ballot. His overall job performance rating is upside-down and his disapprove-approve ratio is widening. Currently, it stands at 45% approve to 51% disapprove-what we might call the "orange" zone. Obama's rating on the economy is a sobering 39% approve to 57% disapprove. According to Gallup, since 1946 presidents with a mid-term job performance rating below 50% have suffered an average loss of 36 House seats. The Republicans need 40 seats to flip the House. Charlie Cook updated his predictions this week to a 35-45 seat pickup for the GOP, from 32-42. Or, the same odds as a coin flip. 

One silver lining for the Democrats is that the public doesn't have much faith in the Republicans-voters' ire is a pox on both houses. Only about one-in-five approve of the job Congress is doing. Ratings for the Democrats (35% approve, 56% disapprove) and the GOP (33%, 53%) in the most recent Pew tracking are scarcely better. Looking at key dimensions of leadership, the Democrats actually post leads over the GOP on "handling the economy" (+2), but this isn't translating into corresponding ballot support. The Dems have larger leads on "handling health care" (+10), and deficits on "handling immigration" (-2) and "protecting the country" (-11) in the recent AP-GfK poll.

There are no convenient solutions for the Democrats, primarily because they control the levers of Washington and the flagging economy is the main driver of voter sentiment. But there are at least three reasons why the Democrats have a fighting chance to turn things around:

First, while Republicans are benefitting politically from a sour economy, their real ace in the hole is the structural dynamics of midterm election years. The Democrats still have time to "change" the electorate by firing up their base, which is far more receptive to both the party's legislative accomplishments and the threat of a Republican majority in the House.

Second, about two-thirds of all paid communication is still "in the can," meaning that Democrats have plenty of firepower left to make their case. In fact, the Democrats have more money at their disposal for voter contact (the majority party usually does). On the House side, the DCCC has a $34 million to $17 million edge over the NRCC; on the Senate side, the DSCC has a slimmer $22 million to $20 million advantage over the NRSC.

Third, and building off of #2, Democratic candidates will not begin making their cases in earnest until after the Labor Day bell rings. Republican recruiting in states like Nevada and Colorado has been especially weak, and the Democrats will have many opportunities to drive solid contrasts with their opponents. The concrete can't set (as some have argued) if it hasn't been poured.   

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OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD

Surrogates: Democrats should make more use of their surrogates, such as Michelle Obama (69% favorable, 27% unfavorable), Hillary Clinton (65%, 34%), and Bill Clinton (65%, 33%) (AP-GfK).

Religion: A recent Pew study finds that 61% agree with the statement, "It's important to me that members of Congress have strong religious beliefs" (34% disagree).

Tea Party: Despite the mainstream media's (MSM's) infatuation with the Tea Party, just 28% identify themselves as a supporter of the Tea Party (69% say "not a supporter").

Trust in News: Only one-quarter of Americans say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in newspaper or television news, according to a recent Gallup survey.

Weekly "Crazy" Number:  Only 34% of Americans correctly identify President Obama as a Christian, which is down from 51% in October of 2008. 18% say he is Muslim and 43% aren't sure, according to Pew.

Good Ads: Check out these ads for Travis Childers and Dina Titus, here and here.  

Mosque: A Fox News poll-yes, Fox-finds that while 64% think it is wrong to build a mosque near ground zero, fully 61% think developers have a right to build it. This includes 69% of independents, 57% of Republicans, and 63% of Democrats. Few commentators seem to appreciate this distinction.

Marriage Equality: For the first time in its polling on the issue, a CNN / Opinion Research survey finds a slim majority (52%) believes gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law (46% think they should not). 

Fair and Balanced: Fox News reportedly donated $1 million to the Republican Governor's Association, according to the most recent filing. Imagine the news coverage if MSNBC did the same for the DGA.

Unemployment: Fully 62% thought Congress should have approved the latest round of unemployment benefits (it did, but not before some heavy GOP obstructionism), according to an ABC / Wash. Post poll.

The Economy: 64% in a recent NBC / WSJ poll say the economy has yet to hit rock bottom, up from 53% in January.