Friends,
Below you will find the weekly
Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Newsletter, which provides a
pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
This week, we examine the Democratic
agenda in anticipation of the August recess.
Following our analysis are additional
news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.
- John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt
STORY
OF THE WEEK: SHAPING AUGUST RECESS
This week, Democrats head back to their
districts for the summer recess with serious business on their hands. Success
for Democrats hinges on their ability to personalize recent legislative
victories and avoid a reprise of last year, where amped-up partisans traded
pitchforks for town hall microphones. We are cautiously optimistic about their
chances this time around-Democrats are more prepared and have more solid
achievements in the last few months to talk about.
The economy and jobs will undoubtedly frame
much of the debate back home. The most recent CNN/Opinion Research polls finds 47% of Americans who list the economy
as the most pressing issue-far and away their top concern. A distant
second-tier of issues includes the federal budget deficit (13%), illegal
immigration (8%), health care (8%), and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (8%).
This helps explain why the Democrats worked to pass a series of bills last week
focusing on strengthening the U.S. manufacturing sector. The package of "Make
it in America" bills promises to grow
manufacturing jobs by, among other things, promoting clean energy exports and
correcting the trade deficit with China.
A recent bipartisan survey and focus groups
conducted for the Alliance for American Manufacturing helped propel the "Make
it in America" legislation. In short, the survey found that Americans view
manufacturing-more than any other industry-as both the backbone of America's
economy (37% "most important" industry / 58% "important" industry) and critical
for our national security (23% / 40%). Manufacturing-related issues comprised
three of the top six concerns facing the economy: debt to China was the top
concern (45%), the loss of manufacturing jobs was fourth (40%), and job
outsourcing was sixth (39%). Across the political divide, Americans noted that a
strong manufacturing base is critical for our country's future prosperity and
growth.
Democrats got a big boost with news that 2010
will go down as the strongest year for job growth in the auto industry since 1999,
with 55,000 new jobs since last year's structured bankruptcies. But the jobs
picture remains mixed nationally and Democrats will need to make a strong case
on other fronts. Health care and financial reform-two central pillars of the
Democrats' agenda-give Democrats an opportunity to draw clear contrasts with
the GOP. The key is to frame these legislative victories in personal, bread and
butter terms. Financial reform (58% favor, 39% oppose in CNN's recent survey)
is a win for consumers against the big Wall Street banks. Health care reform (42%
favor, 45% oppose in Pollster.com's trend rating) gives patients a "bill
of rights" against the health insurance goliaths.
Democrats should also be prepared to discuss,
and defend, their positions on tax cuts and immigration. Opinion on taxes cuts is mixed and splits
along partisan lines. A recent Pew Research survey finds that 31% want to repeal Bush's tax
cuts, 30% want to keep Bush's tax cuts, and 27% want to repeal Bush's tax cuts
ONLY on the wealthy (12% say "don't know"). Independents hold mixed views as
well (27% keep all, 27% repeal for wealthy, 32% repeal all).
On immigration, Democrats are probably best
off not taking the bait. Two recent polls-one by
Quinnipiac and another by CNN/Opinion Research-find that 55% support Arizona's
immigration law, compared to between 30% and 40% who oppose it. The same
Quinnipiac poll shows that 60% think the Obama administration's lawsuit is "a
bad idea" (28% say "good idea").
In the end, Democrats need to seize the
opportunity that August provides. Now is the chance to meet face to face with
constituents, to explain in genuine personal terms the legislation they fought
hard to pass, and to frame this election as a choice between moving forward and
sliding back to the GOP-Bush-Tea Party agenda that created this mess in the
first place.
---
OTHER
NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD
Medicare
at 45 years: Watch Andy
Griffith in Medicare's new ad.
Contract
on America: Democrats recently unveiled the
Republican Tea Party Contract on America. Good reading.
Party
of No: Researcher Brighten Godfrey finds that
2009 and 2010 shattered records for political divisiveness in Congress.
Obama
v. Bush: A recent Pew Research poll finds
Americans, by a 46% to 29% margin, think Obama's policies offer a better chance
at improving the economy than Bush's.
Hispanic
voters: A recent AP/Univision poll
shows Obama's job approval among Hispanics at 57% approve, compared to 44% approve
overall.
Electoral
bypass: Massachusetts is
set to become the 6th state that awards its Electoral College votes
to the winner of the national presidential vote.
Health
care on the rise: The most recent Kaiser FF poll
shows favorable views toward the recent health care reform law at a
post-passage high, at 50% favorable to 35% unfavorable.
For
your toolbox: Nate Silver complements
Charlie Cook's "PVI" index with his own "PPI" index. Worth a look
