Friends,
Attached is the Anzalone Liszt Research
National Polling Summary, which provides a quick look at national polling data
on issues of significance for political campaigns. Read below about why we
think comprehensive financial reform could be a game-changer for Democrats,
along with other news.
Enjoy!
-John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt
STORY
OF THE WEEK: FINANCIAL REFORM AND THE NEW DEMOCRATIC MOMENTUM
After a brief holiday respite, the
Democrats will head back to Washington looking to build on late momentum from
what was otherwise a tough month. While
the atmospherics are certainly daunting for the Democrats
this cycle-the president's job approval rating remains slightly upside-down (46% app., 49%
dis.), the parties are effectively tied on the generic
congressional ballot (44% R, 43% D), and the Deepwater Horizon continues to
spew oil into the Gulf-John Boehner
shouldn't break out the measuring tape just yet. The Democrats' flint is starting to produce a few sparks.
President Obama's deft management of General
Stanley McChrystal's transition to civilian life-a circus that could very well
have engulfed his presidency in the short term-helped shift the debate and
presaged more upbeat news in other areas of his agenda. Obama's job rating on the economy is starting to inch
up(44% app., 51% dis.), a
subtle shift that tracks a June jobs report showing a drop in the nation's unemployment to
9.5% and private-sector expansion for the sixth-consecutive month. On top of
this, opposition to the health care reform law-one of the central pillars of
the Obama presidency-is dropping (44%
favor, 44% oppose).
Top Republicans have helped the Democrats
with several bizarre statements as well. On the heels of Rep. Joe Barton's
inexplicable apology to BP, RNC chair Michael Steele took a public stand
against the war in Afghanistan-to the chagrin of just about the entire
Republican Party, and many others-while
House Minority Leader John Boehner said he favored raising the retirement age to 70 and
suggested Wall Street financial reform was like "killing an ant with a nuclear
weapon". These comments did little to endear Republicans to their base, or
to working families.
Still,
the Democrats need to press their case about why they deserve to retain power.
Other than continuing to help grow jobs and jumpstart the economy-obviously,
the top priority-the best way for Democrats to build positive momentum before
the August recess is to pass a comprehensive financial reform bill. Not only
is this a good
thing for the American
people, but it makes great sense politically for Democratic candidates this
cycle.
First,
the American people strongly support comprehensive financial reform. A spate of recent polling shows solid majorities of Americans
supporting tougher restrictions and oversight on Wall Street and major
financial institutions. When messaging is added, roughly three-quarters support
reform. The most recent Lake Research poll for Americans for Financial Reform shows that 73% support a Wall Street
reform bill that would "hold the big Wall Street banks accountable and prevent
the reckless behavior that caused the economy to collapse and cost 8 million
Americans their jobs" (27% are opposed). Even
when Americans hear both sides (e.g., in a recent Wall Street Journal poll), 55% say "Congress is not doing enough to
protect consumers and rein in the excesses of Wall Street and their risky
investment activities" compared to 38% who think "Congress is going too far
and limiting investment opportunities for investors and curbing the country's
ability to compete in financial markets".
Second,
voters care about and are paying attention to financial reform; they deserve to
know where lawmakers stand on the issue. A recent Pew Research/National
Journal Congressional Connection poll finds that 54% think Wall Street reform is "very
important" and another 28% say it is "somewhat important" (82% say
"important"). Only 13% say Wall Street reform is "not too important" or
"not at all important". In other words, the vote on financial reform will
likely be a voting issue this fall.
Finally,
putting Republicans on record opposing financial reform amplifies a core
economic contrast-underscored by Boehner's slip-that Democrats are on the side
of working families and Republicans are on the side of the wealthy and big
corporations. With regard to
problems in the financial markets, the recent Wall Street Journal poll finds 71% think Republicans are "more concerned about the interests of large
corporations," compared to 53% of the same for Democrats and just 36% for
President Obama. A majority (51%) say Obama is more concerned about the
interests of average Americans, compared to 35% of the same for Democrats and
just 20% for Republicans.
Even
so, passage of the financial reform bill is by no means assured. After a few fits
and starts, the House passed a final financial reform
bill on Wednesday and the Senate is set to take up the legislation after the
July 4th recess. But Senate
Democrats are still rounding up the 60 votes needed to break a Republican
filibuster threat. Their effort is no doubt complicated by pro-Wall Street
groups working hard to twist a few arms in anticipation of a vote. The Chamber of Commerce recently announced a grassroots media blitz targeting the
five Senate holdouts: Republicans Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins
and Chuck Grassley, and Democrat Maria Cantwell. The Chamber is not alone in
the fight. In fact, the entire banking and finance industry
spends a whopping $1.4 million per day
to influence the outcome of this bill and other Wall Street reform measures!
Securing
passage of comprehensive financial reform will require bold leadership from
Congress and the president. But they should feel confident that the American
people are on their side in this fight.
---
OTHER
POLLING NEWS
Independents prefer a generic Republican congressional candidate over
a generic Democratic candidate by 12 points, 46% to 34%, according to a recent Gallup poll.
A new Pew Research survey
finds 83% say they are proud to be an American (52% extremely and 31% very).
Up from 85% last week, FiveThirtyEight.com says Democrats now have an 88% chance to retain 51 seats in the U.S. Senate,
but they have just a 13% chance to retain 60 seats.
A new Siena poll of 238 presidential
scholars puts FDR, TR, Lincoln, Washington and Jefferson at the top of the
list. Andrew Johnson, Buchanan, Harding, Pierce and George W. Bush are at the
bottom.
Worth a click: The administration recently launched a consumer website to promote
transparency in the health care marketplace. http://www.healthcare.gov
The Democratic National Committee is considering St. Louis, Charlotte,
Minneapolis, and Cleveland for the 2010 convention. The RNC has chosen Tampa
for its convention.
They said it: "This is not President Obama's war.
This is America's war... Michael Steele is backtracking so fast, he's going to
be in Kabul fighting here pretty soon." Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
