Friends,

Attached is the Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Summary, which provides a quick look at national polling data on issues of significance for political campaigns. Enjoy!  -John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt

STORY OF THE WEEK: MAKING SENSE OF THE GULF OIL SPILL

As a firm representing many candidates in the Gulf region, the ongoing crisis in the Gulf is not an abstract issue; the consequences of BP's neglect hit very close to home. One need only watch Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon's moving speech to begin to appreciate the gravity of the unfolding disaster for the people, economy, and communities in the Gulf. But where do we go from here? Recent public data point to both opportunities and limitations for Democratic lawmakers and candidates.

The first and most obvious takeaway is that the public is white hot and looking for someone to blame and punish. The Administration's recent efforts to hold BP accountable are in line with the public's belief that BP is the most culpable party. A recent Gallup poll shows 75% of Americans put a "great deal" of blame for the spill on BP, compared to 44% who say the same for federal agencies overseeing offshore drilling. In fact, the poll shows that most Americans want the President to take an even harder line: 71% say Obama had not been tough enough in dealing with BP. More to the point, 59% say BP should pay for all losses, even if it means bankruptcy. The pitchforks are out, and Democrats must not let the public forget the real villain in this drama.

The Republicans have unwittingly done their part to keep blame focused where it belongs. Texas Republican Rep. Joe Barton's ill-advised public apology to BP CEO Tony Hayward was so inharmonious that it prompted House Republican leadership to demand a retraction. His comments did little to disabuse the public of the idea that the GOP is the party of big business, or of the notion that BP is to blame. A new PPP survey of Texans shows 64% thinking President Obama was right to ask BP to compensate victims of the oil spill, and another 65% saying BP did not deserve Barton's apology. National polling shows support for Obama's decision as well. Democrats should not hesitate to use Barton's slip strategically in their communications.

The second key takeaway is that the public wants more than rhetoric-they want a plan. With 92% thinking the situation in the Gulf is "out of control," the Democratic strategy must of course reach beyond impugning BP and looping Barton's comment. A New York Times/CBS News poll finds Americans overwhelmingly think "the nation needs a fundamental overhaul of its energy policies". This sentiment translates into heightened support for progressive clean energy legislation-the central finding of a recent poll conducted by Joel Benenson for the League of Conservation Voters. Benenson's survey finds 63% support a bill that would invest in clean energy sources, cut down on pollution, and charge energy companies for carbon pollution. Support for the Democratic position holds even after respondents hear both the Democratic and Republican statements on the issue. 

According to Benenson, successful candidate messaging in favor of clean energy reform does three things:

1)      Good messaging frames the opposition.  Democrats need to drive a contrast between their efforts at reforming the system with Republicans' fealty to big oil and corporate polluters who have blocked energy reform for decades. This includes tying Republicans to their big oil contributors.

2)      Good messaging demonstrates the cost of our dependence on oil. We spend $1 billion every day on foreign oil-much of it going to nations hostile to us. Our dependence on oil hurts our economy, puts our security at risk, and destroys jobs and livelihoods.

3)      Good messaging taps into the value of "control" of our energy future. America needs to take control of its energy future. We need to cut foreign oil spending in half and invest in clean energy technologies, which will create millions of jobs for Americans. 

On the question of oil drilling, we have seen a precipitous drop in support since the spill, though a sizeable percentage of the public still supports it. A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows 44% in favor of increasing offshore drilling and 48% opposed, which is generally in line with other public polling. In April of this year, 70% supported and 22% opposed increased oil drilling.

The final takeaway may sound trite, but it is nevertheless true: timing is critical. When it comes to energy issues, the public tends to think in the short-term.  On top of this, the midterm elections are just a few months away and lawmakers are looking to wind down their legislative activity and start focusing on campaigning. Now may be the last, best shot for Democrats to demonstrate strong leadership on clean energy. 

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OTHER POLLING NEWS

58% of Americans support confirming Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court.

President Obama's job performance is 46% approve, 49% disapprove in Pollster.com's most recent trend estimate.

Obama's job approval on the economy-voters' top concern-is more divided: 44% approve, 50% disapprove.

85%. Those are about the chances Democrats have of retaining 51 seats in the U.S. Senate. But it goes downhill from there-Dems have a 40% chance of keeping 55 seats, and virtually no chance at 60-according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Dem Senate seats with over a 50% chance of flipping include: ND, AR, DE, IN, NV, PA, and CO. IL and CA are on the cusp.

Americans are split on health care reform, which represents an uptick in support for the bill (43% favor, 45% oppose), according to Pollster.com's recent trend estimates.

A new PPP survey finds Democrats more unified as a party and narrowing their deficit among independents-both promising signs.

Kudos to Murphy-Putnam media for showcasing military service and veterans in a moving ad for Drew Edmondson, candidate for Governor in Oklahoma (he faces Jari Askins in the Dem Primary). 

THEY SAID IT: "Even though I'm president of the United States, my power's not limitless. So I can't dive down there and plug the hole. I can't suck it up with a straw. All I can do is make sure that I put honest, hardworkin', smart people in place"-President Obama, in Grand Isle, LA. (RT Mike Allen).