National Polling Summary

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June 3, 2009
Anzalone Liszt Research
National Polling Summary

Welcome to the Anzalone Liszt Research National Polling Summary, a quick look at national public polls detailing key political environment measures as well as attitudes of voters on the pressing issues of the week. We hope that this summary will be helpful to you and your clients. Please feel free to share it widely by using the "forward email" button at the bottom. In this issue you will want to look at the Gallup numbers showing what many of us have know, Republicans have marginalized themselves to one demographic group - conservative whites - and continue to diminish in numbers. It may also be of interest to look at the new Supreme Court numbers that shows Sonia Sotomayor ranking as one of the more popular nominees in recent history. Enjoy, John Anzalone

Issues in the News

Supreme Court Nominee Rating

Gallup	Date	Excellent/ Good	Fair/ Poor
Sotomayor	5/26/09	47%	33%
Alito	11/05	37%	39%
Miers	10/05	44%	41%
Roberts	7/05	51%	34%

Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Sotomayor?

Polling Firm	Date	Yes	No	Unsure
USA Today/ Gallup	5/31/09	54%	28%	18%

Comfort Level of Obama Choosing Next Supreme Court Justice

Polling Firm	Date	Comfortable/ Have Confidence	Not Comfortable/ Uneasy	Unsure
FOX	5/13/09	60%	33%	7%
CBS	5/12/09	55%	35%	10%

FOX: How comfortable are you with Barack Obama selecting the next U.S. Supreme Court nominee? CBS: Do you have confidence that Barack Obama will nominate good justices to the Supreme Court, or are you uneasy about who he will choose?

Gallup Composition of Political Parties

Gallup	Date	Reps	Ind	Dems
Hispanic	5/27/09	5%	14%	11%
Black	5/27/09	2%	6%	19%
Other Race	5/27/09	4%	7%	6%
Non-Hispanic white, Conserv.	5/27/09	63%	25%	12%
Non-Hispanic white, Not Conserv.	5/27/09	26%	48%	53%

Pew Yearly Totals of Party Identification

Polling Firm	Date	Dems	Reps	Ind	Other
Pew	2009	35%	23%	36%	-
Pew	2008	36%	25%	32%	-
Pew	2007	33%	25%	34%	-
Pew	2006	33%	28%	30%	-

Pew Last Five Months Tracking of Party Identification

Polling Firm	Date	Dems	Reps	Ind	Other
Pew	4/09	33%	22%	39%	-
Pew	3/09	34%	24%	35%	-
Pew	2/09	36%	24%	34%	-
Pew	1/09	37%	25%	33%	-

President Obama's Popularity

Polling Firm	Date	Fav	Unfav	Und/ Neutral
USA Today/ Gallup	5/31/09	67%	32%	-
Daily Kos/ Research 2000	5/28/09	67%	29%	4%
CNN	4/26/09	69%	29%	2%
CBS/ NY Times	4/26/09	54%	18%	28%

USA Today/ Gallup Popularity Ratings for Cheney and Pelosi

	Date	Fav	Unfav	Und/ Neutral
Cheney	5/31/09	37%	54%	-
Pelosi	5/31/09	34%	50%	-

Same-Sex Marriage

Polling Firm	Date	Legal/ Support	Civil Unions	No Legal Recognition/ Illegal/ Oppose	Unsure
FOX	5/13/09	33%	33%	29%	5%
USA Today/Gallup	5/10/09	40%	-	57%	-
Quinnipiac	4/27/09	55%		38%	-
CBS/ NY Times	4/26/09	42%	25%	28%	5%

FOX: Do you believe gays and lesbians should be allowed to get legally married, allowed a legal partnership similar to but not called marriage, or should there be no legal recognition given to gay and lesbian relationships? Gallup: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages? Quinnipiac: Would you support or oppose a law in your state that would allow same-sex couples to get married? CBS/NY Times: Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. OR, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry. Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

Roe v. Wade

Polling Firm	Date	Yes, Overturn	No, Don't Overturn
CNN/ORC	5/15/09	30%	68%

CNN/ORC: The 1973 Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?

Legality of Abortion

Polling Firm	Date	Legal Under Any	Legal Only Under Certain	Illegal In All
Gallup	5/10/09	22%	53%	23%
Gallup	5/11/08	28%	54%	17%
Gallup	5/13/07	26%	55%	18%

Gallup: Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

Pro-choice or Pro-life

Polling Firm	Date	Pro-Choice	Pro-Life	Unsure/ DK Terms
Gallup	5/10/09	42%	51%	5%
Gallup	5/11/08	50%	44%	4%
Gallup	5/13/07	49%	45%	4%

Gallup: With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro-life?

Government involvement in Health care to reduce costs

Polling Firm	Date	Favor	Oppose	Unsure
CNN/ORC	5/15/09	69%	29%	1%
CNN/ORC	2/19/09	72%	27%	1%

CNN/ORC: In general, would you favor or oppose a program that would increase the federal government's influence over the country's health care system in an attempt to lower costs and provide health care coverage to more Americans?

A plan that raises taxes and insures all vs. Keep taxes where they are and don't cover all

Polling Firm	Date	Raises Taxes, Insures All	Doesn't Raise Taxes, Doesn't Insure All	Neither
CNN/ORC	5/15/09	47%	47%	4%

CNN/ORC: Would you prefer a health care reform plan that raises taxes in order to provide health insurance to all Americans, or a plan that does not provide health insurance to all Americans but keeps taxes at current levels?

Health care costs v. Providing Health insurance for all

Polling Firm	Date	Keeping costs down/ Controlling Costs	Providing insurance/ Expanding Coverage	Unsure
Ipsos/ McClatchy	5/3/09	51%	42%	8%
CBS/ NY Times	4/5/09	40%	54%	6%

Ipsos/McClatch: On the topic of federal health care reform, some say that controlling costs should be the main emphasis. Others say that expanding coverage so that all Americans will have insurance should be the main emphasis. Which of these comes closest to your own personal opinion? CBS/Times: If you had to say, which do you think is a more serious problem right now: keeping health care costs down for average Americans, OR providing health insurance for Americans who do not have any insurance?

Paying taxes for all to have health insurance

Polling Firm	Date	Willing	Not willing	Unsure
CBS/ NY Times	4/5/09	57%	38%	5%

CBS/Times: Would you be willing or not willing to pay higher taxes so that all Americans have health insurance they can't lose, no matter what?

Closing Guantanamo Bay Prison

Polling Firm	Date	Yes, should close it	No, should not close it
USA Today/ Gallup	5/31/09	32%	65%

USA Today/ Gallup: As you may know, since 2001, the United States has held people from other countries who are suspected of being terrorists in a prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Do you think the United States should - or should not - close this prison and move some of the prisoners to U.S. prisons?

The Economy

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Polling Firm	Date
CB	May	54.9
CB	April	40.8

The Conference Board Expectations Index

Polling Firm	Date
CB	May	72.3
CB	April	51.0

Optimistic or Pessimistic about the state of the national economy

Polling Firm	Date	Optimistic	Pessimistic
Wash Post/ ABC	4/24/09	55%	42%
Wash Post/ ABC	2/22/09	48%	50%

Who do you trust more handling the economy?

Polling Firm	Date	Obama	Reps	Both	Neither
Wash Post/ ABC	4/24/09	61%	24%	2%	11%
Wash Post/ ABC	3/29/09	58%	25%	1%	14%
Wash Post/ ABC	2/22/09	61%	26%	1%	9%

The Nation's Economy

Polling Firm	Date	Getting Better	Getting Worse	Staying the Same
USA Today/ Gallup	5/31/09	38%	57%	-
Gallup	5/23/09	36%	59%	-
CBS	5/12/09	32%	23%	44%
CBS/ NY Times	4/26/09	26%	25%	48%

President Obama

President Obama's Job Rating

Polling Firm	Date	Positive/ Approve	Negative/ Disapprove	DK
USA Today/ Gallup	5/31/09	61%	34%	-
Gallup	5/30/09	63%	30%	-
CNN/ORC	5/15/09	62%	35%	-
FOX	5/13/09	60%	30%	9%

President Obama's Job Approval Average to May of First Year Compared to Past Three Pres.

Gallup	Fav
Obama	65%
G.W. Bush	55%
Clinton	45%
G.H.W. Bush	60%

President Obama's Job Rating on the Economy

Polling Firm	Date	Positive/ Approve	Negative/ Disapprove	DK
Dem Corps.	5/12/09	61%	37%	-
CBS/ NY Times	4/26/09	55%	24%	21%
Wash Post/ ABC	4/24/09	58%	38%	4%
Pew	4/21/09	60%	33%	-

The Parties and Congress

Party Self Identification

Polling Firm	Date	Dems	Reps	Ind	Other
ARG	5/20/09	45%	31%	21%	-
PPP	5/18/09	40%	34%	26%	-
FOX	5/13/09	42%	30%	24%	4%
Dem Corps.	5/12/09	40%	32%	27%	-

2010 Congressional Generic Ballot

Polling Firm	Date	Dems	Reps	Und/ Other	Refused
Rasmussen	5/24/09	41%	38%	5%	-
Dem Corps.	5/12/09	46%	44%	8%	2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	4/21/09	41%	37%	-	21%

Congressional Job Rating

Polling Firm	Date	Positive/Approve	Negative/Disprove	DK
FOX	5/13/09	41%	49%	10%
Gallup	5/10/09	37%	57%	7%
CBS/ NY Times	4/26/09	28%	55%	17%

Congressional Democrats Job Rating

Polling Firm	Date	Pos/Approve	Neg/Disprove	DK
Daily Kos/ Research 2000	5/28/09	39%	53%	8%
CNN/ORC	4/26/09	43%	53%	5%
Wash Post/ ABC	4/24/09	45%	49%	6%
FOX	4/23/09	50%	40%	10%

Congressional Republicans Job Rating

Polling Firm	Date	Pos/Approve	Neg/Disprove	DK
Daily Kos/ Research 2000	5/28/09	12%	72%	16%
CNN/ORC	4/26/09	31%	65%	4%
Wash Post/ ABC	4/24/09	30%	64%	6%
FOX	4/23/09	36%	52%	12%

United States Direction

Polling Firm	Date	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Opinion
Daily Kos/ Research 2000	5/28/09	46%	50%	4%
Dem Corps.	5/12/09	44%	47%	-
CBS	5/12/09	45%	48%	6%
Ipsos/ McClatchy	5/3/09	55%	38%	7%

Issues in the News

Supreme Court Nominee Rating

Gallup

Date

Excellent/ Good

Fair/ Poor

Sotomayor

5/26/09

47%

33%

Alito

11/05

37%

39%

Miers

10/05

44%

41%

Roberts

7/05

51%

34%

Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Sotomayor?

Polling Firm

Date

Yes

No

Unsure

USA Today/ Gallup

5/31/09

54%

28%

18%

Comfort Level of Obama Choosing Next Supreme Court Justice

Polling Firm

Date

Comfortable/ Have Confidence

Not Comfortable/ Uneasy

Unsure

FOX

5/13/09

60%

33%

7%

CBS

5/12/09

55%

35%

10%

FOX: How comfortable are you with Barack Obama selecting the next U.S. Supreme Court nominee? CBS: Do you have confidence that Barack Obama will nominate good justices to the Supreme Court, or are you uneasy about who he will choose?

Gallup Composition of Political Parties

Gallup

Date

Reps

Ind

Dems

Hispanic

5/27/09

5%

14%

11%

Black

5/27/09

2%

6%

19%

Other Race

5/27/09

4%

7%

6%

Non-Hispanic white, Conserv.

5/27/09

63%

25%

12%

Non-Hispanic white, Not Conserv.

5/27/09

26%

48%