Jim Cirile, who covers the business for the top two screenwriting magazines, sums up the new mentality: "It's no longer about a well-written script or a great human story.  It's about how can these multinational corporations re-purpose your property into a multibillion-dollar marketing industry.  Is your script a potential cell-phone game, a fashion line, paint shades at Home Depot?  This is how these people are thinking now."
 
In one of James Cameron's early interviews about Avatar at Comic-Con, he discussed the challenge of attracting a global audience to a non-franchise film, a la Harry Potter or James Bond.  He said it was a difficult problem and that Avatar was his response to that.  If James Cameron had to lie in wait for 10 years and then spend a quarter of a billion dollars on his solution (Avatar), it's going to be a tricky market for all of us.
 
THE BLECH MARKET
 
Devin Arbiter, former director of development for Ashton Kutcher's Katalyst Films, is pretty curt about the current spec market.  He calls it nonexistent.  Scoggins is a little more playful, if not optimistic, when he tells me what could sell right now: "The phone book with Will Smith or Tom Cruise attached.  Or the Bill of Rights with any one of the top 20 directors in Hollywood."
 
Manager Andrew Kersey adds: "There must be some meaningful element attached.  And it needs to be really close to the goal line."  Arbiter elaborates: To have a shot now, a script needs the following:  "1) A high-concept idea; 2) a nearly shootable script; 3) a well-developed storyline; 4) well-developed characters; and 5) most likely needs an element [director or an actor] attached."
 
Do the numbers and data really support all of this gloom and doom?  Unfortunately, yes.  Besides being a manager, Scoggins runs a website and blog (busy guy) called Life on the Bubble where he follows the business side of the industry and tracks spec sales. He calls his methods unscientific and, sure, some scripts probably slip under his radar, but his work is much more in line with the aforementioned objective article that I am not going to write.  So let's see what his data say.
 
As of middle of August, of the 320 specs that went out this year (he doesn't count pitch sales nor the film rights to underlying material) only 52 had sold.  Outside of CAA, WME, UTA, and ICM, exactly a dozen specs had sold.  Like Oliver Platt's character (an actor) in The Impostors responded to the question "Have I seen you in anything?": It's a tough business.
 
Scoggins said that the industry looks for the spec flavor of the month in cycles.  After The Proposal and The Hangover did well, everyone was looking for a low-budget comedy.  He suspects that it will be the same for sci-fi action pics that can be done for under $30 million, a la District 9.  But in the same breath, Scoggins adds that to try to chase these trends would be folly.  

Alex Tse, the young thirtysomething screenwriter who landed one of the coolest of recent assignments, that of co-adapting Watchmen, tells me: "You have to be aware of the market, but don't write directly to it."  He found out firsthand when early on he wrote a genre thriller that, judging from the way he talks about it, fell somewhere above "by the numbers" and below "inspired."  So his manager pushed him to write something personal.  The resulting 87 Fleer, a coming-of-age drama, got him meetings all over town and opened several doors. 
 
Tse's advice is easy to misinterpret by embracing the "write whatever we want" and conveniently ignoring the "be aware of the market."  It's much easier for us to regress to how things were or how we liked them. 
 
I understand fondness for the past.  It used to be you could go see a Hollywood genre movie and at least have something to talk about.  When I was a teenager, I saw 48 Hours 10 times.  (Luther, are you angry with me?)  I loved the fact that they used their own lonely desperation to figure out the bad guys would return to their girlfriends.  Die Hard and Speed were really great exploitations of concept.  LA Confidential was a textbook example of succinct character setup.  
 
But coming out of Transformers, I learned gray robots bad, colored robots good ... I think.  And I learned about marketing: Cool car for product placement.  Check.  Hot star, bouncing breasts.  Check.  Her doppelganger (unknown actress) that morphs into sexy succubus to keep A-list star Megan Fox's role virtuous.  Check.  Jar Jar Binks-like ethnic stereotypes because some suit thinks they appeal to urban audiences.  Check.  Cute robot that humps Fox's leg for preteens.  Check.
 
This just isn't your dad's (or older brother's) Hollywood any more.  And personally, it's frustrating.
 
And if it's frustrating for you, then let me give you one coping strategy.
 
GET OUT NOW!  There, I said it.  Just in case you need someone to spell it out for you: The industry that used to be - the one that the books or film school in the '90s or early '00s prepared you for - doesn't exist anymore.  Outside of the top five agencies 15 specs sold this year.  F-I-F-T-E-E-N. 
 
Spend your weekends playing catch with your kids.  Skip grad school and take a trip to Europe.  Start a business.  Start a blog instead of learning screenwriting, and maybe by the time you would have written enough to be a great screenwriter you'll be making a living from your blog.  Run!  Go!

 

Take a breath, Jim.  Relax.  Hey, that was for you.
 
If you're still with me, let's see if there is a productive way to adapt to this ever-changing Hollywood landscape.
 
Don't take Tse's advice of "being aware of the market" as some sort of sellout but as a chance to take a delusion-free look at what the business currently is.  You're not chasing trends, you are trying to get a scent of the beast you are hunting.
 
For instance, if you haven't bookmarked Jason's Life on the Bubble, what are you waiting for?  It's a heck of a lot cheaper than a Variety subscription.  Another great resource is a blog by a guy who goes by ScriptShadow.  I discovered his site after my script placed in a fun free contest he held.  He reviews the screenplays for five current spec sales a week.  Whether you agree with him or not, you can see what's selling, find links to current scripts, and learn from others' responses to the same material.
 
If you want to try to be a timely storyteller, you need to be in tune with the zeitgeist.  And not just as a career strategy.  As a craft tactic, too.  My 40-something friends pitched me a teen comedy where some Beverly Hills High students get involved with a staged kidnapping of the members of a famous boy band.   After I listened to it, I realized that in the story's world there was not one cell phone, not one computer, not one social networking site or use of texting.  They weren't in Miley or even Backstreet Boys territory.  They were in Menudo-land, circa 1984. 
 
Well?  Is there a smart phone in your second-to-last spec?  If you are telling stories that are supposed to be taking place now, well, then let them take place now.  Yeah, yeah, I know, I have an article about Dead Poets Society.  Well, come to my class and we can discuss Frozen River, The Dark Knight, and, if you have a bootleg copy, Julie and Julia.  And last week's spec sale.
 
But whether you can join me in NYC or LA, here are some tips on how to survive in this crazy market, tailored to your goals as a writer.
  
JOURNEYMAN SCREENWRITER
 
If, despite all of the doom and gloom of the first part of this article, you decide your goal is to be a Hollywood screenwriter, then life is easy.  You write.  
 
Scoggins confirms: "The tried-and-true way to break into the business as a writer hasn't changed in a long time: Write some great scripts, get a manager and an agent (in that order), and then keep writing great material."  He admits that it's easier said than done. 
 
If your goal is to write Hollywood screenplays to sell to Hollywood, you are already looking at the market.  You already know you love genres and writing to concept.  You don't have to decide whether you're supposed to be writing your personal story or your genre film, because you are writing two to three scripts a year.  Write one of them now and then the other one after the holidays. 
 
Tse puts it an interesting way.  He reminds us that when he or any A-list writer is on assignment, the writing part is for free.  You are getting paid to take and apply notes.   So just like them, you gotta just write. 
 
Tse also reminds us that there's more than one goal in writing a spec.  There is a sale and there is also establishing a career.  He tells me: "If you know no one is going to buy a volcano movie because there are so many f---ing volcano movies, but you love f---ing volcano movies and you know you can write the best f---ing volcano movie ever, then you gotta write that f---ing volcano movie."  (F-bombs were passion and emphasis, not anger.) 
 
Scoggins also advises writers to hire professional readers.  "Not only will you get valuable feedback about the script as well as the merits of your writing, most reputable readers have relationships with managers and agents [and can refer you]."  He points out that the best way to land a rep is to be referred.  He has never signed a client based on a query letter or unsolicited submission.
 
If you want to be this writer, stay tuned to what's going on, keep your head down and ears up, and grind away at that keyboard.  Your job is to just ride this out and reevaluate your situation two to three marketable specs from now.
  
YOU WANT TO BE IN PRODUCTION ON SOMETHING

 

 

I like the fact that Scoggins gave me a counterpoint argument about production.  If you want to be the journeyman screenwriter and not a hyphenate, then production is risky, because it takes a lot of energy away from ... say it with me ... writing. 
 
However, I know that if production is an itch that you have, then you're going to scratch it no matter what.  An immediate benefit is that you will become a better writer from having your script produced or from being involved with production.  Tse says his work with A-list directors like Spike Lee and Michael Mann have been invaluable.  Each has his own way of seeing things.  For instance, Mann is so concerned with authenticity and research that he has had Tse hang out with actual gangsters for their project Frankie Machine.
 
If you don't have the luxury of working with Michael Mann this week, consider having your script read aloud, participating in a 48-hour film festival, or, ahem, taking classes where you workshop scenes.
 
If you do a short, that's great.  But make it short.  Make it within a genre you want to direct.  Don't even waste energy trying to figure out how it's going to make money.  It's not.  It's a loss-leader, an expensive calling card.
 
Finding distribution or money for indies is even scarier than the spec market.  However, I will do an upcoming issue on DIY production and raising money. 

 

You won't be doing theater to make money, but for a few thousand dollars risked (more on the coasts) you can produce your play.  Worst case, you will improve your craft and add a dollop of credibility to your query letters when you write: "I am a produced playwright." 
 
David Scott Hay, who adapted his play and directed Hard Scrambled, the feature film that I produced, says: "For a beginning writer I would wholeheartedly encourage the DIY approach.  Just consider it a positive investment.  You need to be produced.  You need any and all ink early on."  But then his warning seems to jibe with Scoggins's take on DIY: "At a certain point, though, it's about cost/benefit.  Will it further your career?  Or do you just want to put on a show with friends?  Nothing is wrong with the latter, but a few times later you know the drill and the psychic costs."
 
If you are a hyphenate or multi-tasker - actor, comedian, writer, or comedy writer - I would ponder writing and performing a one-person show.  It's a lot cheaper than several years of therapy.  In the Midwest, it's going to be a labor of love and a way to stay sane while improving your craft.  In LA or NYC, there is more of a financial risk, but it's a way to show off a few of your skills and get exposure.
 
My friend Alanna Ubach, who was in Hard Scrambled and stole the show from three Oscar winners in Meet the Fockers, put on a one-woman show in Los Angeles and New York City.  Anytime you can get a reviewer to compare you to Giuletta Masina, that's not so bad.
  
YOU ARE A STORYTELLER
 
Story skills are story skills.  Up to recently, I had a humor column in a national poker magazine.  One of my columns was a relationship guide in the form of a play-by-play poker book.   It was fun to exploit the concept of the parody.  It was also rewarding to come up with an idea, finish it a few hours later, get paid, and then within a month have 10,000 people read it.  And honestly, I had more fun with my R-rated WWTBD column last month than the last treatment I wrote as a gun-for-hire.
 
Remember, screenwriting has some characteristics that make it an inherently frustrating medium.  As merely a blueprint for a film, a screenplay is, in some sense, never finished.  A person reading your script isn't the same thing as an audience watching the completed movie. 

 

Whether it's a blog, a song, an article for a magazine, or even a post on a newsgroup, make sure you create a few opportunities to complete the cycle of source, message, and receiver.
 
If you can be productive and make money with these skills, awesome.  But mostly, this is not so much about business as it is about mental health.

WHAT TO WRITE
  
I tread carefully when I have to make a subjective call about a project's marketability and/or premise.  On their first or second script, I think writers should be left alone with whatever concept they want to write.  The process of finishing those scripts is so important to the writers' growth that trying to point them in a different direction (however slight) could be hazardous to the passion and drive needed for them to finish their daunting and, for them, seemingly uncharted task.  Also, once in a while, a writer is well aware of a concept's limitations but the story just has to be told. 
 
I personally am a self-professed - or should it be self-diagnosed - lover of low-concept movies.  I have produced and/or directed three low-budget dramas.  I once mentioned Eric Rohmer in a development meeting and was happy that the assistant - if not the exec - got the reference.  If you have to write your character-piece slice of life indie, then do it and make that the best it can be.  In some ways, all of the advanced craft - theme, character, dialogue, cinematic writing, and actor-bait flourishes - are even more important in this genre.   But even when you nail it, just a heads up: According to Scoggins's numbers, dramas have little chance.  Four sold in May, and only one other has sold so far this year.
 
Arbiter, a development exec, suggests that writers stick with genres that offer audiences a break from everyday life: comedies, thrillers, and horror.  The problem with action is that writing a super-expensive movie gives the script less chance to be sold and a worse chance to be made. 
 
There are 20 things I love about Inglourious Basterds that are so far down on the list of things you need to know as a Hollywood screenwriter that I will probably not cover two of them in the next year of this newsletter.  But unless screenwriting is just a hobby, then at some point you need to consider hook and concept.  (Check out our first issue's piece on concept.)
 
As much as I think he has a great voice, Charlie Kaufman's success is more due to his fresh and innovative concepts (Eternal Sunshine, Being John Malkovich) as well as great execution.  I have read a dozen undiscovered writers who may have as idiosyncratic a voice as Charlie, but a mere few with an impeccable ability to come up with and masterfully exploit concepts with crazy hooks.  And those few are already on their way to being discovered, at least at some level.
 
Although insiders still rely on the classic syntax "It's Jurassic Park, but with aliens," Scoggins reminds me that the term "high-concept" is a bit out of vogue.  Instead, people are looking for stories with strong "hooks."   If you understand the concept of hook and have or are willing to develop the craft of writing within a strong concept, I encourage it.  And if you can do it on a reasonable budget so that you open yourself up to more potential buyers, that's a huge plus.  Heck, if you write a great script that can be made for less than $100,000, you can shop it to the filmmakers you run into at second-tier film festivals.
 
I guess that by process of elimination we have come up with something practical to write.
 
LOW- TO MEDIUM-BUDGET/

This is probably the most popular of SLB varieties.  It includes remarks along the lines of: "I'm not smart/talented/disciplined/[fill in the blank] enough to be who I want to be/get what I want to get/do what I want to do."

This is a simple pronoun-shift on the first type of SLB, from me to you. Sally Allbright has at least one of these, which include assumptions like: "I have a type and you're not it." 

3.  That's Just the Way It Is: This type of SLB has the staying power of maxims: "You can't teach an old dog new tricks."  I always imagine statements like that are followed immediately by the sound of a judge's gavel banging on the bench.  Boom!  Outside of adages, and inside real people, this SLB might sound something like: "I was born a pessimist; I'll die a pessimist."  Or here's one you might be familiar with: "Art demands suffering.  I'm an artist, therefore, I have to suffer."

 

Here are the steps: 
 
(1)  Jot down one major SLB (fine, you can do more, if you're feeling prolific) that negatively impacts your growth as a writer, however you define growth.  Don't think you can come up with one on your own?  No problem.  Call a couple of people you like and trust, people who have known you for a few years, and ask them any or all of the following questions:  What are some ways in which you think I under-estimate myself as a writer?  How do you think I hold myself back from moving forward with writing goals you know I care about?  What limitations do you think I impose on myself as a writer (vs. external ones imposed on me)?  Feeling shy about asking questions?  Blame me.  Tell them you read a column by one of "those" Life Coaches and you're curious to see how wacky her advice is.  After those conversations, I guarantee you'll have at least one SLB to work with.

(8)  Now what?  SLBs often cluster around our creative roadblocks.  For example, if you struggle with procrastination, or staying focused on one project at a time, we often have multiple SLBs that "support" those issues.  The best next step is to spend some time figuring out the other SLBs that cluster around your particular creative challenge (or challenges).  Take one challenge at a time, one SLB at a time, and repeat the steps listed above.  And if you're really curious and brave-which I know you are because, after all, you're a writer-repeat the steps for SLBs that have nothing (or nothing obvious) to do with your writing and everything to do with roadblocks to other types of fulfillment in your life.
 
Sound easy?  Good.  Go for it.  Sound daunting?  Sorry.  Go for it anyway.  Why?   Like I said before, I really, really don't want you to wait until the last act of your life to throw your SLBs out the window or to mutter the words: shoulda, woulda, coulda.  So just do it: storify your life in a whole new way and see what's possible when Self-Limiting Beliefs fade and you step fully into the talented, powerful, energized you.