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Dear Friends,

 

 

According to the most recent Maine Association of Realtors press release the number of homes sold in Maine declined more than 20% in June when compared to June 2010. Although this is an alarming and precipitous drop in home sale activity, it belies the fact that June 2011 was the strongest month of sales reported since the June 2010 spike. With nearly 1,000 single family homes sold, Unit Volume improved 25% versus May 2011 and more than doubled since the weak February sales report.

 
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Interesting to note, June 2010 was the strongest sales month in the past 2-years due to the "First Time Homebuyers" tax credit program expiring. We are pleased to report that we should see the Maine real estate statistics start to settle into a more normal pattern as the government incentive programs fall farther into the past.

 

While we continue to battle global tumult on a daily basis, it is easy to forget that the Dow Jones average at 12,500 reflects a nearly 20% return in the past year. We should also remind you that 10-year US Treasury note yields at 3.0%, Conforming 30-mortgages at 4.65% and Jumbo loans at 5.15%, are representative of an extraordinary real estate financing opportunity. A Jumbo Mortgage at 5.15% is 2.5% lower than it was 3-years ago and within .05% of the lowest rates in the past 52 weeks.

 

Crude oil hovering around $100 a barrel is not ideal for gas prices or for tourism. Travelling the highways this summer, it is clear that many travelers from all over the country have chosen to drive to Maine for their vacation. Gold prices at $1,600 an ounce remind us that there are some serious issues facing the world in terms of possible European credit defaults and US debt ceiling debates. Foreign exchange rates for the major participants in Maine real estate appear to be strong and strengthening. The UK Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Euro make up the vast majority of international clientelle . The US Dollar weakness provides more incentive for foreign buyers to invest in Maine. We have clearly seen an expanding foreign component for our luxury summer vacation rental business which should feed into our prospective home buyer base in pursuant months

 

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In the luxury property segment, there have been some interesting activity and improving market dynamics. There were 42 homes sold over $1 million in Maine this year of which 32 homes are in the six counties serviced by Legacy Properties Sotheby's International Realty. We are pleased to report the we were involved in 8 of the luxury homes sales in our markets. In addition we represented both the buyer and the seller for nearly half of those sales. Three of our $1 million plus sales fell into a rare category in that they were not ocean front homes. This is truly a positive sign demonstrating a recovery in buyer confidence.

 

Lastly, we continue to be encouraged by the "Under Contract" unit volume which has been steadily growing from a recent low in December 2010. Improving 36% from this time last year, "Under Contract" properties will lead our sales out of the sea of negative headlines for Maine real estate. I, for one, am looking forward it. Stay tuned. 

 

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"Targeted Net Profit and Fortune Tellers"

 

 

I recently completed a comprehensive market analysis. I looked at sold and available "comparable" properties. I analyzed property values by location, number of feet of shoreline, price per square foot, age, size, and selling price/assessment ratios, absorption rates and yes, even Zillow.

 

Just before listing, the owner forwarded an Excel spreadsheet titled "Targeted Net Profit". Across the top line were a series of projected selling prices. Subtracted from each selling price were the adjusted cost basis, mortgage, taxes and selling expenses.

 

One column was highlighted in yellow. This was the "Targeted Net Profit". If this target could not be achieved in the next four months, the client would take the property off the market and re-list in 2012.

 

There are a couple of challenges with this approach. "Targeted Net Profit" is the property owner's "target". What if a property is inherited? It has no cost. The owner would not be willing to sell it for its cost, mortgage and selling expenses unless the selling price equals market value.

 

How do you transition from the concept of " targeted net profit" to "market value"? The more a seller defends their "need to net" position, the more committed they become to the position. A position that cannot be supported by "relevant market data". There may be excellent data, however, to support a buyer's offer.

 

It's useful to view a negotiation from the other side's perspective. When the seller becomes a buyer, will their offer be based on the property's "market value" or the seller's "targeted net profit"?

 

The second challenge is predicting the future. In October 2007, the DOW [DJIA] was over 14,000. In March 2009, it was just over 7000. I would be willing to pay an extraordinary sum to anyone who can tell me where the DOW will be in August 2012.

 

Because it is where we live, we don't usually think of our residence as a financial asset. It is often, however, our largest or one of our largest assets. Placing it on the market or withdrawing it is similar to taking a "future" position in the stock market.

 

If the same client believes the market will be better or worse a year from now, they should consider investing 6 to 7 figures in a "future" position in the financial markets. Isn't this what we are doing when we play the market with a residence?

 

Things are moving pretty fast out there. Much of it is beyond our control. Today the DOW is trading in 12,500 range. I am still waiting for someone to tell me where it will be in August 2012. If you're not certain, you may wish to take advantage of current market conditions to sell or buy.

 

 

 

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