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"Targeted Net Profit and Fortune Tellers"
I recently completed a comprehensive market analysis. I looked at sold and available "comparable" properties. I analyzed property values by location, number of feet of shoreline, price per square foot, age, size, and selling price/assessment ratios, absorption rates and yes, even Zillow.
Just before listing, the owner forwarded an Excel spreadsheet titled "Targeted Net Profit". Across the top line were a series of projected selling prices. Subtracted from each selling price were the adjusted cost basis, mortgage, taxes and selling expenses.
One column was highlighted in yellow. This was the "Targeted Net Profit". If this target could not be achieved in the next four months, the client would take the property off the market and re-list in 2012.
There are a couple of challenges with this approach. "Targeted Net Profit" is the property owner's "target". What if a property is inherited? It has no cost. The owner would not be willing to sell it for its cost, mortgage and selling expenses unless the selling price equals market value.
How do you transition from the concept of " targeted net profit" to "market value"? The more a seller defends their "need to net" position, the more committed they become to the position. A position that cannot be supported by "relevant market data". There may be excellent data, however, to support a buyer's offer.
It's useful to view a negotiation from the other side's perspective. When the seller becomes a buyer, will their offer be based on the property's "market value" or the seller's "targeted net profit"?
The second challenge is predicting the future. In October 2007, the DOW [DJIA] was over 14,000. In March 2009, it was just over 7000. I would be willing to pay an extraordinary sum to anyone who can tell me where the DOW will be in August 2012.
Because it is where we live, we don't usually think of our residence as a financial asset. It is often, however, our largest or one of our largest assets. Placing it on the market or withdrawing it is similar to taking a "future" position in the stock market.
If the same client believes the market will be better or worse a year from now, they should consider investing 6 to 7 figures in a "future" position in the financial markets. Isn't this what we are doing when we play the market with a residence?
Things are moving pretty fast out there. Much of it is beyond our control. Today the DOW is trading in 12,500 range. I am still waiting for someone to tell me where it will be in August 2012. If you're not certain, you may wish to take advantage of current market conditions to sell or buy.
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