It's 2015...

I have a copy of the 2015 National Association of Realtors membership list. There are fewer brokers.At least, fewer providing the same services provided today. Five years ago, how many LinkedIn or Twitter scrubbers were there? Five years ago, how many had iphones, or access to a 3G network?

We adapt so quickly to new technology that we forget, what we did not have (last month). There are millions of CDs that will soon share the same fate as millions of LPs.  There will be no hardware to play them. If you store all your files on a processor the size of your fingernail, physical storage of CDs goes away.

We interpret the traditional residential real estate model based on our experience. But what if there was no model? What if there was no precedent? What would the consumer (you) want? Here's what I think the consumer might expect in 2015:

• The ability to go online or whatever it will be in 2015, and search by price.Not a search as we know it today.In 2015 you enter your specific needs, Wish List, location and budget.How do you know the seller will sell at that price?The listing /selling price will be within 5% of one another. Pricing of residential real estate has changed little in the past 50 years.Take five sold and the five available properties make adjustments to the comparables, weight each property and take the average.Based on this antediluvian approach to value, few sellers accept the recommended listing price. 
• In 2015, you enter a ZIP code.All residences in a ZIP code share a similar location (highest/lowest/median selling price). If you refine the search to a neighborhood (highest//lowest/median selling price), the number residences within the ZIP code decline.Enter the property address and there is only one residence (highest/lowest price recommendation).  In addition to location, all characteristics unique to the property can be documented.Think of an MLS form with 100 more variables.Time-consuming to complete but less time-consuming than the first showing.  Information is entered on an Internet friendly electronic tablet.  Information populates all fields for the next generation CMA.We'll call it RMD (Relevant Market Data). The RMD will also draw on 50 or more non-property specific variables.  These will automatically populate.  Similar to a GPS program, accuracy of the RMD will continue to increase as the variables are refined.With the right combination of property specific and nonproperty specific micro and macro variables, the fair market value of 90% of residential properties is predictable within 90%-95% accuracy.
• Price is directly impacted by condition.In 2015, a 200 question Home Inspection Report is completed and entered online by a licensed inspector.Properties are rated by level of condition.  New construction is in the 90 to 95% range.A residence with substantial deferred maintenance is in the 40 to 50% range.The buyer decides the level of renovation they wish to undertake.The property specifications, condition and the buyer's purchasing power are all be integrated into one search.
• Once the properties are identified, the buyer is be able to "visit" each listing without leaving their desk.Through Google Earth, you can see the proximity of schools, highways and amenities.There are firms already creating, street by street, Videos of individual neighborhoods.You can experience the neighborhood by multiple different routes.I can see the architectural style, landscaping and condition of the properties on either side and across the street.
• I like the appearance of the property and the neighborhood. The property meets my price range and specifications.I need to experience what it would be like to live in the house.  How do the spaces and floors interrelate?What is the scale?In 2015, every property has a virtual tour but it is similar to an IMAX theater experience. Audio and visual surround sound.The virtual tour is in three dimensions.Using your cursor, you are able to "walk" through the spaces.The technology exists.
• With access to qualitative and quantitative information on pricing, the ability to visually experience the neighborhood at street level, a three-dimensional virtual tour, and the condition report, I may need to inspect only two to three properties.
• Lenders would have access to the same RMD report and condition report.
• 90% of title searches will be done online.
• In the current world, close to 90% buyers/sellers do much of their search online.They still look to the broker/sales associate to negotiate the sale.In 2015, there's confidence in the listing price/market value.For 90% of properties there will be less than a 5% difference between RMD listing and selling price.  No renegotiation after the Home Inspection.The condition is known at the time of listing.
• Financing, title, pricing, condition report and all contingencies are known to all participants at all times.Each can go online with access to information depending on their role.No more coordination of all details by the broker/sales associate.

Could all this happen by 2015?  Probably not.It's also unlikely the DOW could move from over 14,000 to less than 7000 in a few months. It did. At the end of each downturn, residential client/customer expectations change.The early 1980s saw the introduction of Buyer Representation.By 2015, it's likely the new residential model will have shifted to reflect new client/customer expectations.Clients may require a menu approach to residential real estate services.

We know the traditional model arguments.Will there still be a significant role for the broker/sales associate?  Yes, but at a higher level of expertise.The consumer will demand competence across a broad knowledge base.Friendship and shared interests will still play a role but they will be second to professional excellence.

The opportunities to excel will never be greater.There will be fewer participants but all will be delivering at a very high level.  Don't wait until 2015.There will be a limited number of places available.

It sooner than you think.My hands never touched the computer dictating this Blog.Have to go now, Bluetooth is calling.