Reasonable Risk Assessment

Assessing risk, especially when travelling internationally, is a practice of trading off security and staying safe with the ability to go places, do things and meet people. The key to proper risk assessment is to identify reasonable risks and taking steps to mitigate and avoid those risks as you do your work. While that seems obvious, there are two areas where people tend to put themselves for risk assessment that do not properly account for dealing with the likely risks they will face.

The first unreasonable risk assessment is the extreme risk identification approach. Assessing unreasonable risks as being likely to occur leads to a number of problems. First, you will probably waste a lot of money to mitigate or avoid risks that are unlikely to occur. Second, it makes it difficult to get the work done that you need to do. Third, because you are focused on unlikely risks occurring, you tend to ignore less sensational, but more likely risks. Instead of focusing on the risks you may actually encounter or need to plan for, you spend time and money on the risks that sound scary, but might only happen in movies (like saying Treadstone on a cellphone in Italy and having the CIA show up within 5 minutes of where you are).   

The other side of that is the no-risk planning scenario. This is where someone might think about the risks, but doesn't actually prepare for them. Although someone is aware of known or possible risks, even things like severe weather, or getting caught in a riot where it isn't a direct attack, they decide to take their chances by the seat of their pants. 

This doesn't make much sense though. Most of the basic risks can be mitigated with 10-15 minutes of preparation. When you do a reasonable risk assessment - the likelihood of something occurring multiplied by its consequence - and then evaluate that against the cost to mitigate the risk and the value of the activity that needs to be done, then you find that potentially severe risks that are easily mitigated should be one of the top priorities. 

Getting your state department contact information in the country you are visiting, paying attention to the news regarding social or political upheavals in a country and keeping track of where you are in relation to your exit (bus, car, train, etc.) are the easiest ways to prepare for possible and maybe severe risks. I'd add to the information mitigation strategy, making sure your cell phone works in a country and having the contact numbers for your 24-hour travel agent and someone that can be called upon at any time to help you deal with any problem that might arise, are reasonable, affordable, necessary and sufficient activities for you to maintain appropriate risk levels at all times.

Adapted from Seoul USA Security Awareness Training © 2009 Seoul USA.