Hi, 

This will be the last of the regularly scheduled newsletters for the season. We plan on starting to send them out again next spring. Also, we will officially be closing for the season on Wednesday, November 23, the day before Thanksgiving. However, on some real nice days, we may open up for a few hours. If you are passing by and see our door open feel free to stop. Also, you can call us at 924-2761 or 652-2368 or email us at magiclandfarms@yahoo.com to find out what we have left. We still have some squash left and are still selling them for $10 a bushel-while supplies last. We also still have a fair supply of apples and we will be storing what is left in our cooler for sale next spring.   Also available in ½ bushel and bushel boxes are red potatoes - we are sold out of Kennebec and Yukon Gold. Our potatoes will keep until spring if you keep them in a cool spot that doesn't freeze.

We still have seed nuts available for northern (Wisconsin strain) pecan trees, pawpaw (Michigan strain) trees and Shellbark hickory trees. All these seed nuts came from our own trees. These native nut and fruit trees are best grown by seed since they have taproots (which makes transplanting difficult) and do not have fibrous roots. They also are best planted in the fall. Full directions are given free of charge. We are receiving orders through our website from people around the country for these seed nuts and pawpaw seeds. Stop buy and save the shipping costs! Now until the ground freezes hard is the time to plant these tree seeds!

I have promised, for over a month now, to give my own forecast for the upcoming Newaygo County winter. I have listened to customers worry about the upcoming winter because of the forecasts they heard that seemed to show it was going to be a very cold, snowy winter. First off, it you looked at what these forecasters really said, and not just the headline hype, you will find they are forecasting a winter slightly colder with slightly more precipitation than normal. The main reason for this is the weak La Nina, which means the Pacific Ocean's equatorial waters are somewhat cooler than normal. They also expect the La Nina to strengthen. Well I've been watching the Pacific's water temperature for several months and there has been little if any change, although the cool/warm water shifts around a bit. The very latest European Climate model, which is generally recognized as the best climate model around (which really isn't saying much) is actually forecasting a warmer than normal winter temperature for the area and perhaps a bit drier as well. They especially are looking for a relatively mild January, which is normally the coldest month of winter. Also, this model seems to indicate a mild and relatively dry December, which is the worst month for lake effect snow squalls. This is especially noteworthy for those who live in the western part of Newaygo County since that's where the most snow falls from the lake effect. February, according to them, looks to be about normal. Well, I realize I still haven't given my forecast. I just gave a forecast that appears to be at odds with those forecasts made a month or so ago and given wide publicity. To be honest, I really, really think it's not possible to give a reliable forecast for this winter. The reason for this is there really isn't a La Nina or an El Nino going on and the condition of the equatorial water's of the Pacific can change (the forecasts for La Nina have shown very poor accuracy) which will shift things around. If there was a strong El Nino or La Nina a long range forecast could be made that was reliable. The reason for this is the Pacific is huge and things simply don't change that fast when there is a huge amount of warm or cold water around. When there isn't much warm or cold water around, conditions can change quite rapidly-and that is what is happening now. My feeling is if you simply keep an eye on the weather trends in the area you will know what the equatorial Pacific ocean is doing. Right now we are in a very mild pattern-despite the chill out right now-and the 6 to 14 day forecast shows above normal temps and below normal rain/snow. While it is hard to make a reliable forecast that uses the El Nino/La Nina data, the old-time forecasters have noticed that the weather pattern that sets in around Thanksgiving holds around for most of the winter. However, there often is a two week long reversal that occurs between Christmas and Ground Hog Day. In other words, while the winter as a whole may tend to be mild, there often is two week period of real winter. This is my thinking right now. The winter will be warmer than normal and then, probably in late January (which is in conflict with the European model) there will a 10 day to 2 week period of real winter with cold and snow. This thinking, which is based on two facts: (1)The upper winds ( around 30, 000 feet) have seemed to set up a pattern of a cold west and warm east and (2) The fact there almost always is at least a couple weeks of real winter around these parts.          

THANK YOU!

Nashle,

Tom