May 2011 Issue 27


Greetings!    
  
April showers brought more than May flowers, it also brought a very good month in the stock markets.  The Dow Jones was up 489, the NASDAQ rose 76 and the S&P500 grew by 34 points.

  

But, not so fast, as of the first week in May the Sell in May and Go Away strategy has held up since we've had a fairly substantial drop in the averages.  Though as I type this the April jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting a significant beat of expectations with non-farm payrolls increasing by 244,000 CNBC Link.  That should make for a decent end to a pretty bad week.  

 

A bright spot (at least in my view) is that a barrel of oil dropped from north of $114 to south of $100 Oil Chart  in a week.  Just in time for the summer driving season--lets cross our fingers and hope it stays low.  The elevated prices at the gas pump will of course take longer to drop than the price of WTI Crude Oil but at least we'll be heading in the right direction. 

 

Oil is a classic case of a supply and demand commodity.  Historically sticky demand gives oil companies and producers a windfall in earnings on the way up but eventually fuel costs do change consumer behavior.  In 2009 the US burned over 137 billion gallons of gasoline, down from 2007's 142 billion.  Gas usage chart  Some of that drop was a result of the worsening economy but some of it can be attributed to the $4 per gallon we saw in 2009. 

 

What happens is that oil exploration and production increases with the rise in pricing (companies want to take advantage of an increase in their profit margins).  Then, consumption begins to drop since consumers don't particularly like sinking $60 in to their gas tanks.  The eventual result is that we have a supply increase contemporaneous with a demand decrease which means that the pricing power enjoyed by the producers cannot stay above equilibrium for long (although as noted earlier demand is sticky--you still need to drive to work).  But the best way to lower fuels costs as a nation is to reduce consumption or increase production--or both.  Storing oil and its by-products is not as easy as other commodities--and it costs a significant amount of money to keep it in storage.

  

A break in the price at the pump will add a few more consumer dollars to the economy and that helps everyone.    

 

Marty  

Pessimism is still Rampant

 

An article on Yahoo Finance caught my eye the other day, Start with $10,000 and Retire a Millionaire.  As I had thought the author suggested steady monthly savings through a fairly long period of time to end up with a million dollars at retirement age.  It was a nice, up-beat article that while maybe a bit fluffy for some people, accurately described a basic investing strategy--regular disciplined savings over time.  

   

What makes me bring it up here under the Pessimism headline is what I read under the article in the comments section.  As you know, most on-line articles give the reader an opportunity to comment on the piece just written.  Sometimes the comments are better than the actual article--most of the time they are more entertaining.   

 

The comment (as of this writing there are over 2,500 of them) that fell just below the article on the day that I read it was submitted anonymously but it started off saying that the piece was a joke since, "The Middle East is on fire, Floods, Fires tornados and earthquakes are increasing in frequency and intensity all leading to crop failures" blah, blah, blah blah blah.  So, I guess since the Middle East is "on fire" we don't need money anymore?  And with tornados and earthquakes "increasing in frequency" I guess we should just pack it in and wait our turn to be victimized.  

 

This person reminds me of a joke I once heard, I forget the comedian, but it goes something like this, "In my house I make all the big decisions and my wife makes the little ones, I decide if the US should raise taxes, commit troops to Iraq and who should be President and my wife decides where we will live, if we need a new car or if we can go on vacation and where." 

 

The commentator is obviously paralyzed by the 6 o'clock news.  There will always be geo-political headline risk and there will always be natural disasters but are they really any worse than say, headlines from 1942? or 1863?  I doubt it.  Perhaps the only thing that has changed is how quickly we learn about major worldwide events.  Regardless, even if the world is growing more dangerous, is there much we can do about it?

 

While we can't do much to change the world, we can change our spending and savings habits.  We have control over things in our lives--lets worry about those things instead.          

 

Marty   

Investing 101
Roth IRA
  
Starting this month we're going to use this section of the newsletter for Financial Education 101.  I will cover some basic financial terms and concepts here each month, not only defining the term but hopefully adding something of interest over just the simple definition. This month lets talk about the Roth IRA. 
  
The Roth IRA was established in 1997 and is named after its sponsor, Senator William Roth of Delaware.  Roth IRA contributions must come from earnings and they are limited to $5,000 each year ($6,000, if 50 years or older.)  Contributions are after-tax and earnings are tax-free once in the Roth.  Generally Roths must be held for at least five years and distributions before age 59.5 are penalized.  (There are a limited number of exceptions.)     
  
Congress imposed compensation limits on potential Roths participants; in 2011 if a married couple makes more than $179,000 of Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) neither of them are allowed to add to the Roth.  For a single taxpayer the MAGI limit is $122,000--just another example of the marriage penalty, but that's another story. 
  
Roth IRA's are not subject to the Required Minimum Distribution rules and contributions can even be made after 70.5 years of age.  Distributions from a Roth do not count as income and as a result may keep your total earnings for Social Security and Medicare below the income thresholds (unlike regular IRA's which may cause Medicare B cost increases and Social Security payments to be taxable.) 
  
Just from those few tidbits of information you begin to get a feel for who can benefit most from a Roth--first, the person is probably modest income and in the lower tax brackets with the anticipation that income will grow in later years.  Additionally, one should believe the income tax rates will be higher in the future (pay income tax now at an historically low rate and save it from income later when rates will probably be higher.) 
  
However, that last part does not apply to State taxation--there is a scenario where a person may live and work in a high income tax State (Maryland for example) now but will move to a low or no income State later (Florida for example).  In that case the taxpayer would pay current State income tax on the contribution but would not have had to pay State tax on the distribution anyway--so the benefit of tax-free earnings is lost at the State level.    
  
Ironically, by the time someone has the extra money and realizes the advantages of a Roth it is too late to contribute to the Roth because they make too much money.  This does not prohibit a parent or grandparent from encouraging a working child to open a Roth.  And of course, the best form of encouragement comes in the form of a check to fund the Roth account.  This is a good way to start the young person thinking about saving for the future--it also moves money out of your estate--money that might someday trigger State and Federal estate taxes.  Remember, the beneficiary must have earned income up to the amount put in to the Roth.
  
Think about the Roth and try to find ways it might fit into your overall financial plan--there is nothing like tax free earnings to make a person feel warm and fuzzy all over.  
  
Marty
   
(Material in this newsletter is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice.  Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources; however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness.  All illustrations shown are hypothetical in nature and do not represent any real investments or tax situations. Actual results may vary.  The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.  You cannot invest directly into an index.)
At Desk
Chesapeake Investment Advisors Inc.
 Martin Knight, MBA CFP®
410-810-0735
800-994-0221
Fax: 410-810-3422
 
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc.  Member FINRA/SIPC