Aprill 2011 Issue 26


Greetings!   Here we are finally into April and wow what a start to the year.  The first quarter of 2011 was the best start in the markets since the first quarter of 1999. See article  Which, if you remember the tech-bubble crash in year 2000 it's like saying that this was the best new launch of a ship since the Titanic.  Nevertheless, January 3, 2011 to March 31, 2011 was very good to investors in equities.  Here are the numbers:  

                 January 3, 2011                       March 31, 2011                 Difference
DJIA            11,577.43                                  12,319.73                     +742.30
NASDAQ      2,676.65                                    2,781.07                     +104.42
S&P 500        1,257.62                                    1,325.83                     +  68.21
(yahoofinance.com)

Let's hope we continue to crawl out of the ashes of the "great recession" and begin adding jobs throughout the rest of the year.  With jobs will come even more economic growth and a partial recovery in real estate prices that so many people are looking for.  After going through the last few years it will be fun to participate in the recovery.        

Enough happy stuff; on to my complaints!  All winter I longingly eye the calendar and think of April showers and May flowers and when April finally arrives I am always disappointed.  I'm not down because of the weather which is nicer than February, but because of the double hammering we get from the IRS.  Like many of you , my household gets a tax-bill due for the previous tax-year and a tax-bill due for the first quarter of 2011 estimated taxes.  Then to make matters worse, June 15 is right around the corner for the year's second estimated tax bill.  Now come to think about it, throw in January 15's payment and from January 15 to June 15 we send in four checks to the IRS--the whole rest of the year we send in only two!  I would like to meet the bureaucrat who came up with this perverse little scheduling trick.  And do you think it is just a coincidence that April 15th is so far from November elections?  

Ok, OK, enough belly-aching about taxes--heck, half the country hardly pays any and many people get refunds this time of year. Oh, by the way, if you owe you have an extra weekend to enjoy a flush bank account--Federal taxes are due at the post office this year on April 18th (Maryland still wants them on April 15th however.)   

In an unofficial survey I've been asking my circle of friends if they are paying more income tax this year than they did last year and it has been unanimous so far; everyone is paying more for 2010 than they did for 2009.  This should bode well for the tax revenues of our Local, State and Federal Governments.  

A big bonus for the tax collectors this year is that the Required Minimum Distributions from IRA's came back in 2010.  Remember in 2009 they were suspended and many people took advantage of a year where they were not required to take money from their IRA's.  This saved taxes primarily from the reduced income, but secondarily too from reduced taxation of their Social Security Benefits and lowered thresholds for itemizing certain deductions.  Consequently I think the death of government due to under-funding has been greatly exaggerated and I expect to see stories in May about how the tax-revenue collected was much higher than originally expected. 
  

Marty  

Inflation in February--Follow up to Last Month's Article

 

March 17 the US Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its Consumer Price Index  BLS link and it came in at + 0.5% for February and up 2.1% for the trailing 12 months (before seasonal adjustments.)  February's CPI was expected to remain the same as January's 0.4% so it was slightly higher than the majority of forecasters thought.   

 

Recently we have all watched in horror at the jump in gas prices; I can't re-fuel my little Pontiac for less than $50 minimum.  Imagine the fuel costs for a major trucking company or retailer who ships their product.  And since corporations and trucking companies are not in business to lose money they will eventually pass these extra costs through to the consumer.  On April 1 for example Krispy Kreme Doughnuts announced that they were increasing their prices due to higher food ingredient & fuel costs (no police jokes friends).  (See article)

 

The only solace I have about the high cost of gas is the fact that I know that kid in the monster diesel-fueled pick-up truck with no muffler that drives by my office three times a day is also paying over $3.90 a gallon.  I can't wait till he buys a Prius!     

 

I think February and now March is the start to some significantly higher CPI numbers down the road.  A side-effect of our fledgling inflation inching its way up is that those folks who are lucky enough to have their retirement checks tied to the CPI may see a small pay raise this year. 

 

Even Social Security recipients are expected to get a Cost of Living Allowance--but there is a catch.  Since there were no COLAs for the last two years they have been unable by law to increase the cost of Medicare to existing recipients--with a COLA however, they can then raise the cost of Medicare.  More than likely any increase in Social Security would be eaten up by the increase in the medicare cost.  

 

Lets keep our eyes and ears open for the next release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics set for Friday, April 15th at 830.

 

Marty   

A Word About SHIP Mates

No not those kind of shipmates, but the kind that work for Maryland's Senior Health Insurance Assistance Program or SHIP.  I learned about the SHIP program at the March 30th symposium on Aging hosted by Washington College where I was the moderator for one of the break-out sessions and one of my panelists was Michelle Holzer from the Maryland Department of Aging.  

 

Michelle gave a great 10-minute presentation of the new changes to Medicare coming down the road.  There are quite a few.  Medicare is the kind of program that you could spend a lifetime trying to keep track of all the nuances, laws and constant changing of the plan(s).  Michelle has done just that. 

 

Anyway, SHIP is a volunteer-centric program where you can have a local volunteer (each County has an office) help you get a grasp on the complexities of getting your Medicare insurance straight.  Also, there are other social programs that most of the affected population probably doesn't know about--programs that help seniors pay for prescriptions and hospital bills etc.    

 

There are two pitches here--one, if you have the desire and time to volunteer to help people in need, SHIP is always looking for new SHIP-mates.  Secondly, if you or your family or friend is struggling with medical bills and Medicare issues please call or direct them to the local SHIP office for some real help with these crazy-complex issues. 

 

Here's a link to SHIP's website, Link and their toll-free number is 800-243-3425.  Here's a copy of their brochure, Brochure PDF

  

Marty
   
(Material in this newsletter is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice.  Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources; however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness.  All illustrations shown are hypothetical in nature and do not represent any real investments or tax situations. Actual results may vary.  The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.  You cannot invest directly into an index.)
At Desk
Chesapeake Investment Advisors Inc.
 Martin Knight, MBA CFP®
410-810-0735
800-994-0221
Fax: 410-810-3422
 
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc.  Member FINRA/SIPC