September turned out to be a great month in the markets--some say the best September in 71 years (http://www.cnbc.com/id/39457790). The up-a-month, down-a-month pattern continued through the summer; lets look at the Dow Jones as a proxy for the markets:
April:-----------Up 152 Points
May:------------Down 873 Points
June:------------Down 360 Points
July:-------------Up 598 Points
August:----------Down 454 Points
September:-----Up 772 Points
(Source for quotes: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/indu/historical )
We opened April 1 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average standing at 10,857 and closed September at 10,788. All the pessimistic hand-wringing and the optimistic celebrating were for naught since we basically ended up where we started. That is why we like dividends so much, it is OK to get paid to stand still.
Going forward I think the economy is getting better though you'll be hard pressed to keep your chin up this next month. Obviously we have an election coming in November and as a result I think we will see a lot of political candidates campaigning on how bad things are in the Country. Talking down the economy won't be hard this year as there is ample fodder for the rhetoric; but a lot of signs are turning positive. If you are feeling good about things or at the least feeling better, be prepared to hear over-and-over again how close we are to financial ruin--literally, a thousand times a day if you watch a lot of TV.
Just yesterday we turned on a local Baltimore station to catch the weather to see if it was ever going to stop raining and during the commercial break I began to wonder just how much advertising money can Andy Harris and Frank Kratovil possibly have left? Every commercial, back-to-back, was about that Congressional race--and none of the spots were positive. I finally turned the set off and thought about moving to a Caribbean Island where nobody cares about politics.
Anyway, I am just looking to tread water in October but I think we'll have a nice finish for the rest of the year. One caveat; December will be heavily influenced by any tax legislation passed by the then lame-duck session--they have a lot of work to do before the new year. Here's looking forward to post-election,
Marty
