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Greetings!
August gave back most of what July had given us. This summer has been particularly frustrating since we seem to take two steps forward and then two steps back. This is called a trading range and we seem to be stuck in one somewhere between 10,500 and 9,800 on the DJIA. Whenever we get close to either edge we change direction and charge to the other side.
It seems that the market moves are based less on fundamental data but rather the latest prognosticator's opinion. Even on an uneventful day the multiple stock-market media outlets need content; after all, they have many hours of broadcast time to fill. So more often than not they will march out an economist to talk on any number of standard touchstones; things like, unemployment, consumer confidence, Euro Debt, US Debt, Manufacturing productivity, China--bubble or no bubble, financial regulation, taxes--going up or going down, political uncertainty (which will be a big one as the elections grow nearer), the list literally can go on forever. Everything under the Sun--including the Sun--can have some effect on the economy. And there are economists who can extrapolate any data to any side of an argument; unfortunately, more often than not an economist will err on the side of being overly pessimistic--they don't call Economics the "dismal science" for nothing.
Moreover, if in the unlikely event an economist had the opinion that the economy is doing OK, or maybe that the recovery is slow but recovering nonetheless; would CNBC, or Bloomberg, or Fox or CNN request his paid appearance on their program to have him say there is nothing particularly special to report? Of course not. They are in the business of selling advertising and more veiwers mean higher ad-rates and loud arguments and doomsday specialist and pie-in-the-sky optimists are interesting! The truth lies somewhere in between the extremes--the economy is better than last year, and will probably turn out to be better next year.
Trust me, if there are no new current worries or problems count on the omnipotent media to find something and the "dog bites man" lead is no lead at all. In the end, I think in a few years we will look back on this time when the Dow was stuck at 10,000 and think, wow, I wish I had bought more than I did. Marty
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Concept of the Month: Third Quarter Meetings.
Well, the kids are heading back to school and the weather is turning fall-like; damp, cool and dark in the morning and early evening. Weather like this always reminds me of walking to my bus stop carrying my new binder with all new dividers and new paper and a couple of pens and pencils. Like then, I still hate to see summer go. In the financial planning world September ends the summer doldrums and we begin to get a little busy again.
Jenna will soon be calling or emailing to schedule third quarter meetings. Of course, not everyone wants or needs to meet so don't feel left out if she doesn't call you; it's probably because from our point of view there's not much we need to do for your account. However, if you want to meet there is absolutely nothing wrong with calling us and scheduling a date.
Plus, remember, I love to drive so if you want me to come to your office or home just ask--more than likely we have other clients in your area that I can meet on the same day.
The September/October meeting is one of the more important ones since we are going to plan any end-of-year strategies. For example, we might want to harvest a tax loss or find some money to meet the full-year IRA/401K contribution limits. Or maybe we will be deciding what to sell to meet your Required Minimal Distributions from your IRA/401k if you're over 70 1/2 years old. There is the chance this year might be a good one to do some IRA to ROTH IRA conversions and we want to do that before the end of the year so we can take advantage of lower 2010 income tax rates.
There is a ton of things to think and talk about so lets get together.
Marty |
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September 25th--Put it on your calendar: We are doing a seminar this month on Saturday, September 25th from 9am to 11am at the Imperial Hotel in Chestertown. The topic will be informational only and will cover Social Security Planning. Planning for your Social Security benefits is extremely complicated and mistakes made are felt for a lifetime. We hope to help people avoid some pitfalls and maximize their benefits.
Now many of you know that I absolutely despise long and boring seminars--so I will fight the boredom factor and keep it as informative and as quick as possible. The Imperial will also be supplying a light breakfast. Please shoot me an email mknight@chesadvisors.com or call 800-994-0221 if you would like to attend or know someone who would like to attend and I'll reserve you a seat, there are only 20 available. Please feel free to bring a friend too, I think we all know someone who is struggling with a Social Security decision.
The material is targeted to the 55 to 66 age group but if you really want to come and you're outside that age group, let me know and I'll get you in. Worst case scenario, you get a nice breakfast and I bet you will learn something new about Social Security.
Thanks, Marty |
Chesapeake Investment Advisors Inc. Martin Knight, MBA CFP®
410-810-0735
800-994-0221
Fax: 410-810-3422
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC |
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