One month of winter down and just four to go!
November turned in another positive month for the markets:
DJIA +632 Points (10,344 from 9,712)
S&P 500 + 59 Points (1,095 from 1,036)
NASDAQ + 99 Points (2,144 from 2,045)
Expect December to be a light volume month as many investment managers and traders sit on the sidelines for fear of hurting an already great year. And as far as the market is concerned, 2009 has been a great year.
A typical Morningstar (tm) research report on a mutual fund lists the last ten years of returns in a chart form. Depending on the asset class in that ten-year list there are usually a couple to three negative years with the rest are positive. Of course, 2008 is one of the negative years--as is often 2001 and 2002.
Inevitably 2003 and 2004, and now 2009 are strong years as the markets jump off the bottoms of the bad years.
How nice it would be if somehow we could get one of these reports for the next ten years. With a future report in hand we could put money into the market in the bad years and take money out when the market hit the top.
I think when we look back at 2008 and 2009 ten years from now we will wish we had put everything we had into the market at the end of 2008. (Instead, quite a few people took money out of the market--just in time to miss what has turned out to be a spectacular 2009.)
Mr. Hindsight has 20/20 vision. We can look back all we want and think of what we could've done ahead of the market dips and before the market surges--but it doesn't help in our current planning. It's too late to take an alternate route when you're stuck in traffic.
The alternative to the timing-fantasy is to ride out the market swings with a high quality, diversified portfolio--re-balancing when asset classes move at different rates--and forget about what could've been. This is a plan, a road map that will, unless we quit, eventually get us to our destination.
Now, let's hope December passes as quickly as November.
Marty