September 2009
Greetings!
 
Well, the hardwood floors are done and I think they look great-Hamilton Floor Service out of Denton did a great job.  Mr. Hamilton should know what he's doing-he's only been refinishing hardwood floors his whole life.  I highly recommend his work. 
     
While the office was closed I also re-painted the front porch-battleship-grey for Mike.  It too looks great, if I say so myself.  Thanks to Jerry Everett for the technical advice. 
 
So, with all the office maintenance done it's a good time to stop by and go over your accounts.  Plus, Jenna will be calling and scheduling some appointments in September and October; but don't feel the need to wait for her to call if you want to meet-heck, you may not be on this quarter's list so give us a call and she'll schedule you in.  And as usual, if you want me to come to your place that's fine-I hope by now everyone knows I don't mind driving.  

The market has had a wonderful climb out of the March 2009 canyon and our fall meetings should be much more enjoyable than our Spring ones were.  It has been well over a year since I have been able to report some good news, and it feels good!   
This month's Benjamin Graham's quote is particularly relevant to our current situation-and if you haven't been reading these little snippets try to make it a point to start-The Intelligent Investor is such a great book-every time I pick it up I find something quotable. 

Lastly, thanks for your all your support through the last year-and-a-half, during those difficult markets I know it was tough to look at the quarterly statements.  Let's hope we're through the worst of it.  And by the way, I especially appreciated the client referrals during that time; it was truly a sign of confidence when you referred your friends and family to Chesapeake Investment Advisors in the middle of a financial hurricane. 

Marty
Long Term Care and Women
 
I came across a good article in the August edition of Financial Planning regarding women and Long-Term Care.  Long-Term Care (LTC) has been an interest of mine for sometime-I wrote an article on LTC insurance for the Maryland Trooper Magazine in the summer of 2007 (http://www.chesadvisors.com/The_Golden_Years1.pdf). 

I won't get into it too much here; you can click through to the link and read what I wrote then, but what I found interesting about the Financial Planning article, and what I had not thought of before is that, women are more adversely affected by the lack of long-term care insurance than men. 

The problem is that women are often the at-home caregiver for their loved ones, be it their parents or in-laws, or spouse.  Besides being mentally and physically stressful, it can be expensive-especially if the caregiver must leave their profession or job.  The articles writer quotes a study completed by the National Center on Women and Aging that found that "family caregivers lose an average of $659,130 over a lifetime in reduced salary and retirement benefits."[1]    

Then, if that's not bad enough, once the poor lady is done caring for everyone else-she is then subjected to the need for care herself.  The article reports that "The chances the general population will need LTC is about 50%; for women it's more than 70%."  Moreover, "Seventy percent of nursing home residents are female, with an average stay of 3.7 years versus 2.2 years for men."[2]

Talk about your double jeopardy. . .

Marty

[1] Quist-Newins, Mary  Double Jeopardy, Financial Planning, August 2009  p.63
[2] ibid
 
This Month's Quote from Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor
 
Warren Buffett called it  "By far the best book on investing ever written."  Benjamin Graham's, The Intelligent Investor has been in print since 1947--has been revised and updated every five years or so.  The edition I have was published in 1973 and updated by Jason Zweig in 2003.   
 
The Investor and Market Fluctuations  Chapter 8
 
 "A serious investor is not likely to believe that the day-to-day or even month-to-month fluctuations of the stock market make him richer or poorer.  But what about the longer-term and wider changes?  Here practical questions present themselves, and the psychological problems are likely to grow complicated.  A substantial rise in the market is at once a legitimate reason for satisfaction and a cause for prudent concern, but it may also bring a strong temptation toward imprudent action.  Your shares have advanced, good!  You are richer than you were, good!  But has the price risen too high, and should you think of selling?  Or should you kick yourself for not having bought more shares when the level was lower  Or-worst thought of all-should you now give way to the bull-market atmosphere, become infected with the enthusiasm, the overconfidence and the greed of the great public (of which, after all, you are a part), and make larger and dangerous commitments?  Presented thus in print, the answer to the last question is a self-evident no, but even the intelligent invest is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.
 
It is for these reasons of human nature, even more than by calculation of financial gain or loss, that we favor some kind of mechanical method for varying the proportion of bonds to stocks in the investor's portfolio.  The chief advantage, perhaps, is that such a formula will give him something to do.  As the market advances he will from time to time make sales out of his stockholdings, putting the proceeds into bonds; as it declines he will reverse the procedure.  These activities will provide some outlet for his otherwise too-pent-up energies.  If he is the right kind of investor he will take added satisfaction from the thought that his operations are exactly opposite from those of the crowd." (Pg. 196 & 197)
 
What he's talking about here is portfolio rebalancing and how it helps to tame our animal instincts; instincts that almost requires us to do something when good or bad things happen in the market.  The rebalancing discipline releases psychological steam and keeps us from doing something really dangerous. 
 
 Marty
 
The upstairs office has finally rented!  Comfort Keepers, an in-home senior care company from Easton is expanding their practice into Chestertown.  Opening a local office is their first step in providing more personalized services to Kent County.
Issue: 7

Concept of the Month: Creative Destruction

Sounds like an oxymoron-but Creative Destruction is an essential feature of a free-market economy.  Creative Destruction occurs in a competitive marketplace where the strongest and best companies survive and the weak ones do not.  Often the term is used to describe the success of an innovative product, one that when introduced, changes the marketplace forever. 

As an example, IBM used to make a wonderful typewriter, the Selectric-it had a metal ball with all the symbols haphazardly stamped all around-but strike the letter A on the keyboard and the ball would magically spin at light-speed and slam against the ink-ribbon and produce the letter A.  

I remember the State Police bought one of these machines for each barrack-and only the secretary could use it (obviously the thing was just too precious for us Troopers to hunt and peck on).  Believe it or not, we still used the Royal-brand manual typewriters-and this was in the 1980's and into the early 90's.   

Finally, the Selectrics filtered out to the Troopers Room and we thought it was the best office machine ever invented. 

In that case the Royal's were creatively destroyed by the Selectrics.  The Royals had lasted MSP since 1935-but they were unceremoniously dumped as soon as we could get a Selectric.  But, as good as the Selectric was, it too was creatively destroyed shortly after the arrival of the Personal Computer. 
New capital (money) flows to the most efficient products in the marketplace-in our example, first the Selectric and then the PC. 
 
Often the introducing company reaps fairly nice profits for their innovation because for a short-time they have pricing power. 
This pricing power helps to make up for the research and development costs required to invent new products.  Later, as other companies introduce their own models the prices of the new products come down-remember calculators when they first came out?
   
The free-market cannot work when we don't allow competitive destruction of inefficiencies.  Frequently Governments, especially those with populist leanings, try to preserve the status-quo by saving industries and companies that are inefficient or outdated.  When efforts to prop up the status-quo are successful, we restrain Adam Smith's invisible hand of progress to the detriment of many for the favor of few. 
Marty
 
Book I am reading now:  "The Age of Turbulance: Adventures in a New World"  by Alan Greenspan. 
 
(Penguin Press, 2007)
 
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