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Greetings!
 I have just returned from attending the Aviation Business Roundtable. Three weeks earlier I was at the annual National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Convention and Trade show. At both meetings I had an opportunity to sit down and talk with leaders in this industry. We talked about how their businesses have survived during what some have called a very interesting year, or to use a variation of FDR's words, "A year that will live in infamy."
Down 25%, that was the attendance change for NBAA this year. Change the percentage only a few points and the the same could be said about the revenues for just about every company I talked with. But another common thread was, "We have it under control." Or "We just had our first profitable month."
One of the most interesting speakers at the Roundtable was David Stauss from UBS. David is an aerospace analyst, one of the few on Wall Street who follows the business jet industry. I had a chance to talk with David after lunch. You will find more about David and his business aviation research below.
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Industry Data
ARG/US to the rescue
 Many of the investment firms I do consulting for ask where they can find timely data on the business jet industry. It is not only Wall Street analysts that have found that the amount of data showing trends in the business jet industry is lacking or out-of-date when it is made available. The FAA has the most data, but by the time it is released it is almost a year old, and in my opinion not as accurate as it should be.
I have found the best data on this industry comes from a small company in Ohio. ARG/US is managed and staffed by a bright group of business jet industry professionals. They have developed some of the programs and procedures used today by many of the largest operators of business jets. ARG/US's research and services are used by OEMs, airlines, charter companies, fractional operators, fuel providers, aviation service providers, and FBOs
Much of the data they develop is sold on a subscription basis but there is one key piece of data that is public and on their website - TRAQPak shows monthly business jet activity.
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Wall Street's View of GA
A survey worth responding to
 At the Aviation Business Roundtable David Stauss shared with the group his current research on the business jet industry. In summary his findings of the industry this fall were:
- Signs of stabilization in cycles and available inventory levels.
- Continued deterioration in used pricing and fractional indicators.
- Risk for further production rate cuts in 2010.
He observed that business jet cycles (takeoffs and landings) in September were 9% lower from the prior year. He said the decline should continue to decelerate as comps get progressively easier. (See the ARG/US article above for how to find the latest cycle data.)
The survey that much of his data is derived from is sent bi-monthly to key managers in the business jet industry. He typically receives over 150 responses. He surveys brokers/dealers, manufacturers, financiers, appraisers and other market participants. I suggested to David that he include the GA MRO industry in his survey. One company agreed to participate on the spot.
If you like to read a lot of data and study charts, you can read David's luncheon slides here: 2009 Aviation Business Roundtable.
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A New Message to the Hill
"It's jobs stupid"
 2009 was not a good year for business aviation PR. Congress, as this picture illustrates, has a long history of heaping their wrath on those summoned before them to repent their ways. Steps are being taken to correct the image of the industry that was conveyed by a few grandstanding members of Congress and even the President.
In October Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) organized a new General Aviation Caucus and said, "General aviation has a presence in every state and plays a significant role in our economy." The Senate caucus follows a similar effort in the House where more than 50 members attended the first meeting. At the Roundtable meeting Ed Bolen, the president of NBAA, chaired a session where two flight department managers told how their companies used business aviation and why it was productive and an efficient form of travel. The stories were very different. Jeff Lee from IBM talked about how important their Gulfstreams and Falcons were in conducting international business. Scott Moore manages a 2 person, including himself, flight department for Luck Stone. The contrast was stark but the message was the same, business aviation is critical to their companies. Luck Stone operates a single King Air 350 and their average trip length is 350 miles. Their cost per mile for the King Air is 79 cents. Scott pointed out that the IRS allows you to deduct 55 cents when you use your car on business, but a 350 mile drive in a car takes about 7 hour while the King Air can make the trip in just over an hour. Governor Joe Manchin (D-WVA) made a very impressive speech about why GA is so import to his state and gave several examples of how he, his staff, and state agencies use GA to move around this mountainous state with only 2 airports with airline service, and that service is very limited.
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