Monday morning before the opening bell for NBAA rang, Honeywell released to the press their 15th Annual Business Jet Outlook. Honeywell forecast 1,000 business jet deliveries in 2007, the highest number ever in any single year. Over the next 10 years Honeywell forecasts 12,000 new business jet deliveries with a value of over $195 billion. This is an increase of 2,100 aircraft and $39 billion over the 10 year forecast Honeywell made last year. These numbers do not include the new VLJs or the jumbo business jets from Airbus and Boeing. Honeywell has not tracked “personal jets” (Eclipse, Adams, etc.) but their outlook said that these aircraft could add 4,000 aircraft to the turbine fleet over the next 10 years. The 4,000 number did not include any air taxi or fractional purchases of these personal jets. Honeywell may believe, as we do, that these air taxi models are very speculative and have yet to be proven.

As soon as the opening remarks were concluded and the ribbon cut for the NBAA trade show, the awaiting crowd surged into the sold-out exhibit hall. When I reached the Honda exhibit for the press conference where they announced the order book was open for the HondaJet, hundreds were already crowded around the gleaming new jet rotating on a brightly lit turntable. Screens with videos of the HondaJet flying through the clouds of North Carolina gave an airborne feeling to the exhibit. Short presentations were made by the President of Honda USA and Takeo Fukui President & CEO of Honda Motor Company. They explained that their founder Soichiro Honda’s goal was to provide mobility for people. They were followed by a very proud Michimasa Fujino, president and CEO of Honda Aircraft. While it was Honda’s goal, this airplane was Fujino’s creation. Soichiro Honda’s mandate was, "Do Not Imitate." Fujino must have listened. He told the audience of first coming to NBAA in 1986 and knowing that someday he wanted to be a part of this show. On October 17, 2006, he stole the show. Customers lined up and three days later, well over a 100 orders were in hand.

Adams, Cessna, Eclipse, Embraer, Honda, Piper, and on and on (we counted a total of 12 this space) are the OEMs developing VLJs. How large is the market for single pilot capable jet aircraft in the $1 to $4 million range? Is the VLJ air taxi model viable? Can the ATC system handle that volume of VLJs in an environment that is under strain from the growing regional jet market? No one is certain of the answers, but many have strong opinions. Vaughn Cordle has been studying this emerging market for sometime. Vaughn, a member of The Aviation Group, is a highly regarded airline analyst and a regular on CNBC, Bloomberg, and CNN business news channels. He also flies left seat in 777s for a major airline. Over the last few years he began to notice that the majority of passengers flying in the front of his planes were non-paying types, airline employees and cashing in frequent fliers. Vaughn will have more to say about these trends on Hangar Talk. Be sure to stop by the Hangar and read and comment on what he has to say.

Hoping to hear solutions to our growing ATC crisis (Hangar Talk will soon explain why I use that word), I attended the NBAA panel forum titled USER FEES — It’s the Most Pressing Issue in Our Industry Today! It was preceded by a warm up debate between James Carville and Mary Matalin. As intended this entertainment panel attracted a standing-room-only crowd of about 300. It was meant to be a warm up and a holding place for the user fee panel. After a short break only about 75 remained in the audience to hear Ed Bolen (NBAA) and a panel of speakers, Tom Poberezny (EAA), Peter Bunce (GAMA), Jim Coyne (NATA), and Andy Cebula (AOPA) all trash Jim May (ATA) who was not there to defend himself. May was accused of wanting to bring general aviation to its knees with user fees. No one with a view about how to improve and modernize ATC was invited to speak. It was Ed’s party but I paid to attend so I offered an opposing view to the small group that likes ATC as it is. I made it clear that I had always been a general aviation pilot and never worked for the airlines. I pointed out that a predictable revenue stream is critical for any business. We pay user fees today, only they are called a taxes. Taxes are paid to the US Treasury and the funds in the Treasury are controlled by Congress. We saw what happened to Reagan National and Washington Dulles airport when they were in the exact same position as ATC. Today under an airport authority they are efficient modern airports that are not dependent on government funds. ATC is dependent on Congress for funding and Congress has a one-year time horizon. I also tried to make a few of the excellent points Bob Poole discusses in his latest Air Traffic Control Reform Newsletter. I felt like a skunk at a garden party.

RSS or Really Simple Syndication is a technology that enables you to keep up with new content that is posted on Websites that you find interesting. I will cover this in more detail in a future Hangar Talk article. Hangar Talk is RSS enabled so if you understand RSS (it’s really simple) and have an RSS reader, point it to Hangar Talk so you will stay current on our thoughts. The very popular Firefox web browser has what they call “Live Bookmarks”. Look for the symbol on the right side of the address bar. Just click on and add the Feed to your Bookmarks. When I find the time, I will discuss other RSS options in Hangar Talk.

email: jhaynes@avgroup.com

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