BAGAKOAA; August 27, 2012 No Poems Tonight

Post 702

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August/2012

Is this what it will be like?

 

Today was the first day of school and what my normal schedule might look like.  Had Man Child up and at breakfast by 6:25.  Watched the opening of the market, not too many surprises.

 

Drove Jack to school at 7:15, did 40 minutes on the treadmill, (just under two miles if you care), then Alex, trainer extraordinaire worked me for 60 minutes without injuring me.  It felt great and learned few nice stretching tricks.

 

Then out to run an errand or two for the woman I love.  (No I am not sucking up, as she has not be able to get my blog since I lost the padi.com address.)

 

Has a spot of tea and two poached eggs (only one yolk), then worked on the portfolios and read 34 stock economic type e-mails and only found one worth noting.  More later.

 

Then I was so unhappy with the way I was managing my mail, I downloaded MS Office Outlook for small business and I love the interface.  Great tool and it will save me about 20 minutes a morning in organizing my e-mails and appointments.  Love it.

 

Cleaned up about 200 e-mails and read the WSJ and IBD for today.  Picked up Jack from school and moved a few things to storage including the motor home.  Followed up on some correspondences that were sent out on Friday.

 

Then Jack, Devin, and I ran out for a quick bite at Friends.  I got home and had the assignment of reading all the syllabuses for Jack's classes and signing the policy manuals. Oy Vey, so much paperwork.  I think it would be fun to test the teachers on their own policy documents and see how well they score.  That could be fun.

 

I remember the good old days, at St John Brebeuf, you went to school, you did your best, if you didn't, Sister Nathaniel would get the pointer out and swing it around like a Samari Sword, swoosh, swoosh.  Or even worse you would to go see Father Clos.  He was a mountain of man.

 

He would stop serving communion and call out a parishioner's name if he saw them leave early.  "Excuse me Mr. Neichmen, I have places to go too and you don't see me leaving, now sit back down."

 

I served as an altar boy circa 1963, when the mass was just beginning to drop the Latin.  I had to learn all the parts of the mass from cross bearer, to acolyte, and Master.  The Master was the only altar position that had to know any Latin.

 

Once I became an altar boy, I was an acolyte on most Sundays.  That is the kid who carry's the candles to the altar and rings the bell during what used to be called high mass.  (It was a carry forward from the masses of the 17th century that lasted about four hours and bells were rung to wake people during the blessing of the Eucharist.  But I Digress)

 

The Acolyte did not need to know the Latin.  I was asked to be the Master for a family friends wedding Mass.  Cool, I was going to score a quick 50 bucks which adjusted for inflation would be about $357 today.  I was a happy little altar boy.

 

That was until the beginning of the Mass when I walked next to Father Clos on the way to the altar and realized I did not know a single word of Latin.  As he began his prayers at the foot of the altar, and cantored and stopped, I placed my face in the second stair of the altar and said, "Sim dum, sum mum,omino, sum dimino, dey ono."  Cantored beautifully I might add.

 

Father looked down on me and continued cantoring and I continued faking my way through the prayer.

 

When we reached the Altar, Father blessed it and with his hands stretched out looked at me and looked at the 37 pound missal that was layed upon the altar.  It had about 29 different ribbons hanging from but I knew what to do.

 

I flipped to the first ribbon and father shook his head NO.  I flipped to the second ribbon, NO. By the third ribbon, Father wisely turned to the correct ribbon.  And that was pretty much how the mass went.  He got the holy water his self and the wine, I did get the hosts for him.  He had to fold all the toweling himself as I forgot I was his busboy for the mass.  But I was on my way to making 50 bucks.

 

As we wandered into the vestibule and waited for the wedding party to head out to greet us, Father Clos, a mountain of man (Yeah I know I already said that) leaned over to me and said, "Cronin, you better learn those prayers, and pretty damn fast."

 

I looked him up on Google and found a 1973 picture of him.  As you can see he does not look like he has a great sense of humor.

 

I got my $50.00.  Now where would I have invested it today.  


Mad Money was not too Mad Today

 

We suggested the market would be off about .5% and it was off about .3%.  Everyone seems to be waiting to see what Uncle Bernanke is going to say next week at Jackson Hole.  Big money players are making their way back to the trading desks after summer vacation.  The S&P was basically flat and as we suggested NASDAQ reacted favorably to the Apple Samsung News.  More later.

 

As everybody waits in baited anticipation for Uncle Ben's comments, I can see major disappointment if he does not say something encouraging.  Forget the fact that the idea od QE is to lower interest rates to help stimulate the economy.

 

How much lower can interest rates go?  I was recently told by an employee of a discount brokerage account that I would be better off leaving some excess cash (a fair amount mind you) in the daily sweep account versus moving it to a money market account because the interest rates were only .00007% different.

 

So does that mean disappointment ahead?  We have suggested the market might be down 4% or so this week.  Should you sell?  I have been asked this question by three readers in the last week or so.

 

Cramer did a great job today addressing the issue.  He spent an entire hour discussing sell strategies.  Let me summarize for you quickly as its getting late.  If you have a true blue core investment, you really have to look stock by stock and decide does the threats facing us impact that companies overall ability to maintain or improve their earnings per share.  THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERS?

 

Let's take a look at few from our core list we sent out last night.

 

GOOG, Google.  Will a Syrian conflict stop people from looking up stuff on the internet?  Will the dilution of the Euro make adword advertising less attractive?  Will 4 more years of Obama or 4 new years of Romney impact the 50 billion in cash at Google?  You get the idea. 

 

Now if the market corrects and Google is off 5%, it makes it buying opportunity.

 

XOM Exxon Mobile.  Will a slowdown in China make gas more abundant?  Well it could be argued that demand would slacken, and that would be true.  Does anyone think that China will not bounce back?  Does anyone think nat gas will put XOM out of business. (They have made huge investments in Nat gas over the last 5 years)  You get the idea.

 

Go down that list from last night.  KO, PG, ABT, BDX, MSFT  . . . .   They are all great soundly run companies.  Some are valued better than other AT THE MOMENT, but 2 -5 years down the road they will be here and still paying out a dividend.

 

These sideway shakey times can be buying opportunities.  That is not to say you should not take some profit.  Then after a correction, look for opportunities to buy more of these beauties.  Read the annual report on your stocks and list all the global macroeconomic issues afore us and decide, will this take my stock down?  Will it significantly impact the earnings of my company.  If so, then get out of that stock.  If not, be patient, take a little off the top, look for drops to buy more.

 

AAPL was up about 2% today on the Samsung news.  Again, Cramer wrapped up a lot of the media inteliginista mutterings quite well.  In shore he said AAPL has a few choices (some were made during the course of the day).  They could hound Samsung to death tryong to stop the sale of its products. (Those lawsuit were filed earlier today.)  It could just ask for juicy licensing fees for its intellectual property.  Now keep in mind Samsung gets a lot of business from AAPL on its semi-con chips.  That is business Intel would love to have.  If Samsung does not agree to licensing fees, AAPL could just give that chip business to INTC.

 

There are a lot of scenarios, most looking good for AAPL.  BUT these are not reasons to buy AAPL as the Samsung remidies could take several years to decide and actually impact the EARNINGS of each company.  The reasons to consider buying Apple are its product roll outs over the next couple of quarters and the resulting earnings.  They should continue to impress. 

 

Full Disclosure, we are LONG AAPL in 13 portfolios.   

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 7/26/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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