August 12, 2012 Never On A Sunday

BAGAKOAA; 12 August 2012 Never On A Sunday

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August/2012

Never On A Sunday

It was a Greek Song (α Παιδιά του Πειραιά) originally recorded in October of 1960, then covered by just about everybody. Petula Clark had one of the bigger hits in 1961.

Never on a Sunday came to mind because I am noting that Sunday feels like Tuesday and Monday's kinda feel like Thursday and Wednesday's feel a little like Saturday. This retirement thing get's a little confusing.

Now I have more advice for you as a man of leisure. When you get invited or asked to join your spouse to go one place, DO NOT BELIEVE IT. You see they suffer from WWAO disorder. These are the symptoms.

You go to help take care of the horses

horse

and when you are done she says, While We Are Out, let's go to Big 5. Then she says While We Are Out, let's go pick up the painting I had framed. And on and on.

Oh yeah, I am finding out I am not supposed to be in my home. Friday, I was working on some investment stuff and Devin came home. She went into the kitchen and got some olive parmesan Triscuits. She has about 6 of them and that is breakfast and lunch. Well she sat on the couch for a few minutes to catch some of the Olympics and I came down stairs.

She sits up and says, "What are you doing here? I didn't know you were home." No she could not see my car in the garage and after 30+ years, she was not expecting me to be home. I must announce my presence now when she comes home.

Now one of the things I want to do is get in better shape. (2, 3, 4 waiting for the laughter to stop.) Really it is important. And after an incident at breakfast Saturday, I think I need to change my image. I told the gang at breakfast that Jack and I have joined Gold's Gym. Almost everyone sprayed their coffee laughing. Really, Tommy L. almost lost an eyeball laughing. I'll admit I am out of shape, but really it is not that out of the realm of possibilities for me to get back in shape.

Today I found out why Devin is not an Olympic coach. I did 60 minutes of running and walking on the treadmill today. 2.81 miles, so I was setting no speed records, but it has been a long time since I spent an hour on a treadmill.

I was soaked with sweat and I really enjoyed it. I was listening to my ipod shuffle and singing, much to the annoyance of my son. On the way out to do surprise stops with Devin I told her about my amazing achievement.

Her response was, "Well when you loose some weight, you will be able to go faster and farther in an hour." Ouch. She skipped the chapter about motivation and support. Coach Welch, you need to talk to her.

That little excursion on the treadmill was about 10 hours ago and this blog is going to be long because I do not think I can get my butt out of this chair.

One of the things I did today was to retire my KIT. My KIT is my attaché case. It has an interesting story. The Day before my dad passed away we had an industry event called the Course Director's Training Course (CDTC) Cocktail party for the kick off of the CDTC. My dad had received a new Hartman attaché case.

He passed away the next day. After the services and some grieving time I entered his office and there in new box was his brief case. I carried it with me for the next nine years and one month. It has been to every corner of the earth except Antartica. It has an estimated 350,000 miles logged. It has had wine and coffee spilled on it. It has been violated by many TSA officers. It was officially retired today.

retired bag

After running around, we waited for my buddy Dennis to head to the house as he is driving with us to Utah tomorrow. Yes another trip to God's country. Yes Douglas, we have one to, and its not Wales. Dennis will he riding with Jack on the big truck (F-250 diesel) and I will be driving Devin's chariot, the Escalade.

This would be a good time to break into our home as we will be gone all week. We do have an alarm, and the code is your age times 99 and you should have a 22.3% chance of having one of the numbers in our alarm code. Hook up with four other readers and you should have about a 76% chance of getting up to three numbers in the code even though they will not be in the proper order. (Told you I can not get out of this chair so its going to be a long blog.)

Your still awake? God you need a life. Ok I will kill you with stock stuff.

The Week Ahead

Internationally, look for second quarter growth data from Europe and Japan. The Uk will be reading the tea leaves from their Bank of England meeting guessing what future economic policy might look like.

Monday

All is quiet on the Eastern front and Western front and even here in the US. It is a good day to be driving across some really hot deserts. (No Butch not as hot as Mohave Valley, AZ.)

The market will be up .75%

Tuesday

We have busy day with the PPI reporting here in the US. Look for a little tick upward as a result of gas prices. If we see more than a .2% jump the market might get spooked. Retail numbers here in the states should improve from the sad June numbers. Look for a .3% expansion. Ironically another negative number might be met with a positive reaction as it could force the hand of the Fed to do a QE III. The Business Inventory to sales reports as well on Tuesday. Look for a 0% growth. I guess 0 is not growth is it? Anyway it will be flat. The experts are saying a .2-.3% growth. They are wrong. Read the rail traffic reports. We'll see.

The Eurozone repost 2nd quarter GDP, look for a sad face on the report card. Industrial production should be negative as well. Germany and France report GDP numbers separate on Tuesday. Look for Germany to hold well and France to le suckie. The UK will report their CPI and it too should creep up a bit. This is built into the market.

The market will be off 1% on Tuesday.

Wednesday

We have the CPI reporting and again look for a bump in the index with about .3% built into the market. Anything over that will get some attention. We thinkest it will be close to flat. The industrial production number will be softer than anticipated. Mr. Market will not like it. Last month's housing market number jumped to a new high of the last ten years. The smart folk we will maintain that level, but I think we will see a slight downward adjustment.

Beyond that not much happening in the world.

Look for the market to accept the bad news with a shrug. A flat day in the market.

Thursday

UK retail sales will be a bummer and we will see the market open a half a point off.

At home housing starts will linger at the 750M unit level. The initial jobless claims number is tricky to guess this week. Expectation are the number will creep up just tenny tiny bit. We think that we might see a drop to below 360, which should make the market happy. However, a drop would take the heat off the Fed for QEIII.

Look for a slight .25% upward move by the market.

Friday, will be a quiet day with just the consumer sentiment report coming in. Look for a little improvement to 74 on the index. That and cooling temperatures across the US will make the market happy and we will see a 1.2% jump in the market.

So if my math is correct, we will see the market up a little more than 1% this week.

Salve Lucrum

Since 7/26/2012

BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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