BAGAKOAA; 3 July 2012 This Fishing Hole Permanently Closed

Post 682

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July/2012

This Fishin Hole Permanently Closed

 

Well, now, take down your fishin' pole
And meet me at The Fishin' Hole,
We may not get a bite all day
But don't you rush away.

What a great place to rest your bones,
And mighty fine for skippin' stones,
You'll feel fresh as a lemonade,
A-settin' in the shade.

Whether it's hot,
Whether it's cool,
Oh what a spot
For whistlin' like a fool.

What a fine day to take a stroll
And wander by The Fishin' Hole,
I can't think of a better way
To pass the time o' day.

 

Pucker up boys and girls and get ready to whistle. Think back to your childhood (for most of us) and think about the most recognized whistled song in history. Yes it was The Theme To The Andy Griffith Show. You know the melody, now sing the words.

 

Earl Hagen called himself the famous composer no one ever heard of. He wrote the lyrics and composed The Fishin Hole. He also did a lot of other work on television including I Spy, The Dick Van Dyke Show, Gomer Pyle and Mod Squad to name a few.

 

Yes Andy Griffith passed away today at his home in North Carolina. I remember the show and watching little Opie (Ron Howard) as a kid and later as a father sitting in a rocker rocking my daughter to sleep whisting the Tune until she closed her eyes.

 

In a recent interview, AG was noted as saying he was jealous of Dick Van Dyke, because he got to be a normal urban kind of guy while he and Don Knott's had to work like hell to seem easy going laid back country bumpkins. He said it was a lot harder than any other acting job he ever had. So Long Andy, and thanks for the good times.

 

While I am writing this, we just got word that the hills around our home in Utah are on fire. We drove through the state of Utah yesterday (Monday) and we saw several active fires and the remnants of many more. Our friends Brian and Elizabeth just got a reverse 911 call to evacuate.

 

In the picture below, our home would be just out of view on the left. The fire is burning on a mountain that we enjoy looking at everyday and every night. It is a shame.

 

 

On The Road Again

 

Our drive was comfortable but long at 11 hours plus. Thanks to Jerene and Dennis, they helped with the driving and the moving of stuff. It was a great two week break and we all had a good time. We got home about 7:45 and enjoyed out last meal together. (They have to return our truck this week so we will get to have dinner again as we do not have to quit cold Turkey.

 

Today I just faked my way through about 640 e-mails, a pile of financials, and a huge stack of snail mail. (Good Lord the republicans have found me. I must have about two dozen requests for political donations.) Devin and Jack were putting the house back in order today.

 

Almost all the work is done. We have a beautiful new fountain in front, but do not know how to turn it on. We have new hardware on an exterior door to the house that leads to our pool, but do not know where the key is. We have beautiful new screen doors to our sunroom, but they have not been painted. Our new garage doors have been repainted to the color we want, but they did not paint the very visible weather stripping. I could go on and on, but I just have discovered that like the Murphy's Law "Before you do anything, you must do something else first.", there must be a similar Murphy's Law stating something like, "When you are done doing something, there is always one more thing to do." I have never seen it, but I assume its true.

 

So before I finish my blog, let's take a look at our abbreviated market for the day.

 

The good news is, the Green Flag is still flying. I was a bit concerned yesterday with the pitiful one off ISM survey number that came is below 50 which indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. (Well not really because if you take a ten year range, the survey must come in below 43 to indicate a true contraction.) The big news was the new order data took a 12.3% drop, the lowest in many years. That is a huge variance. For you standard deviation fans, it equates to 3 sigmas off average. Now when you see a data point 3 standard deviations off average either up or down, you can assume one of three things. It is a catastrophic occurrence (the market chose not to consider this option). It is a bad data dump. Or it is an anomaly to be ignored until a supporting trend can be identified. The market seemed to go with the third option.

 

It apparently was a good decision as today's US factory order number support the anomaly theory. The market chose to ignore much of the doom and gloom scenarios out there and finished up today be it a shortened day with little volume. The dollar was down as people are drinking the Euro bailout juice.

 

The drop in dollars today brought up gold and oil prices. Those of you waiting to get back in gold, the recent strong push above 1600 might be a buying signal. No matter how Europe fixes its problems and the US addresses its debt issues, it appears it will require some Quantitative Easing which will include some printing of money. That is always a good thing for the price of GOLD. While we have some physical gold our investment of choice is the ETN GLD. In looking at the six month slide in value, the 200 day average (Using a 6 month daily chart) is sliding to 161.65. GLD is at 156. A good buying signal used by some is to buy gold when the price is above the 200 day average.

 

It is reckoning time for our portfolio and in June we suffered yet again with a small dollar loss, but it amounted to 19.35% mostly off the back of some poorly timed AAPL calls. (Note to self stop experiment with options.) we were stopped out of some WFC at an 8% loss contribution to the carnage.

 

Year to date we remain at 1.99% realized losses. On the unrealized side of the story we have returned to green figures just barely showing a YTD figure of .23%, but after being in the red for three months we will take it. We attribute the unrealized gain improvements to several of our bonds coming back in price, gold improving a bit and a 4% surge in a decent sized BRKA position or two.

 

Our thinking is a nice little rally in July before yet another correction in August.

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 6/29/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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