BAGAKOAA; 25 June 2012 Dos Cervezas Por Favor

Post 678

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June/2012

It was another magnificent day in Utah. Dennis and I headed back to the Middle Provo for a day of trout catching. We started out the day with our obligatory breakfast at Joanna's. we were on the water by 11:00 AM.

 

When we first arrived I was surprised that there were only 8 cars in the parking area. Well each car must have 4 fisherman because the stretch we usually have to ourselves was very busy. I made my way to my spot only to find a nice older guy (70s) butt deep in the river while his lovely wife sat in a chair reading a book with a sun umbrella over her.

 

I thought how nice. Someday that would be me and Devin. Realizing how stupid that sounded, I knew the only way I could get Devin to sit by the river while I fish would have to be after her stroke and the loss of both of her legs. Even then I think she would be in the river out fishing me.

 

Dennis had a good day, actually his best on this stretch of river. He caught a 13 incher that got his hands all a shakin as we landed him. As you can see, a beautiful fish.

He was using parachute Adams size 18 if you care. We also had some luck with Blue Wing Olives and the Parachute Cahill from last week.

 

Later in the afternoon, Dennis had a nice fish and chose to do his impression of Peter Boyle in Young Frankenstein. He started falling backwards, and kept falling backwards walking like Peter Boyle wearing the Frankenstein Boots, until he turned and then fell forwards and actually went to his knees, all the while still keeping the fish on the line.

 

Earlier in the day, Dennis had a decent fish, but broke his head off. Here is a picture of Dennis screwing his head back on.

 

My day was not entirely uneventful. I caught a few fish and had fun teasing some of the juvie fish with my flies. I even got cocky and tamped down the barbs on my hook so I could get the fish off without hurting them.

 

That turned out to be a fortuitous decision as later in the day when I stopped to call my buddy Butch to wish him a happy B Day (Happy B Day again you old dude) I put my rod under my arm and the fly went into my arm pit. Ouch! It came out rather painlessly, but got caught in my shirt. There I was ass deep in the river try to use my pliers to pull a fly out of the arm pit of my shirt. I am glad my son was not there to video it.

 

We ran an errand on the way back picking up a the Wolf Photo we told you about last night. Then we got home and we had a simple meal of Hot Dogs and Brats on the BBQ. Life is good. We closed the night with me spotting a satellite heading north. I was the only one out of 5 people who could see the darn thing. Devin was kind and said, "Have another drink dear."

 

Time to evaluate what happened today.    

 

Dos Mas Cervezas Por Favor

 

The title of today's blog has to do with the fact that InBev, the Big brewer who bought AB a couple of years ago has announced its intent to buy Groupo Modello, Mexico's biggest brewer. That was big M&A news today.  

 

Looks like we got the home sales report correct, as it did surprise to the upside, but we missed on the Dallas fed Survey which came in as expected. (We thought it would be soft.)

 

None of that mattered as all eyes were focused to the Eurozone. Spain has announced new bleeding and Germany is getting a little less cooperative in bailout talks.

 

All of this did expedite my call for a RED FLAG. Losers to winners today had a 3 to 1 advantage and volume was heavy enough to have Mr. O'Neil tell us we are back in a MARKET CORRECTION. The green flag lasted 4 days and the yellow flag lasted two days.

 

So in a RED FLAG market correction we are careful not to buy new positions and only add to positions you have every faith in. Keep an eye on your stops and strongly consider getting out when you are down 8%. I could be wrong, but I have a lot betting on a VIX returning to 40 by years end. In order for that to happen, we need the market to correct at least another 5 %.

 

Don't get me wrong, we are not hoping for a trains wreck, but since February we could see there were problems with the main train track so we bet that the expected unexpected derailment would happen.

 

Don't fight the trend. Good luck Keep an eye on that Case-shiller home report tomorrow. As we said we think the number will be better than expected, but if we are wrong, it could be a nasty day in the market. The Consumer confidence number and the Richmond Fed Survey will disappoint. Look for another 1.5% down tomorrow.  

  

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
Since 6/25/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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