BAGAKOAA; 3 June 2012 A Low Ha

Post 654

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June/2012
Where Are The Trade Winds?

 

Well we are home from paradise.  After a week in Kapalua Hawaii, we are back in good old Dove Canyon, CA.  Usually I really look forward to heading home and seeing the family and the dogs and sleeping in my own bed, but this time it was different.  Because my family was with me and we had a long deserved break from reality, it was hard to pull our heads out of our Mai Tais and head home.

 

But here we are.  Only a couple of you were asking about my whereabouts, which means either you carefully read the last three posts of a week ago where I told you I would be gone or you just don't really care.  I will pretend it is the former.

 

We got in about 11:00 Saturday night, and I am just now (Sunday 10:00PM) just starting my blog.  Today we worked with Jack, (Devin did all the heavy lifting.) to get his cerebral bearings so he could face finals week.  He is a bit intimidated about the whole thing.  I was never worried about finals.  I did fear the wrath of John and Margie Cronin who were very proficient at making the letter F with belt welt marks on my butt when need be.  The long bar across the top was usual the first strike.  The shorter one down the staff of the F was when I was struggling to get a way and the vertical staff itself as while I was on the run.  

 

Anyway, Devin must have made about 300 index cards over the course of the week preparing for Jack's finals.  She should be applauded for she really did a lot while on this holiday get away.

 

The reason for our trip was my assistant's daughter's marriage.  Ellen's daughter Amy married Jason at a nice intimate setting east of Waialea.  The evening was spectacular and we will have photos to share soon.  The evening before we enjoyed a cocktail cruise out of Lahina.  It was a beautiful night and we, the Cronins, finished the night at The Banyun Tree Restaurant at our hotel in Kapalua.  Ryan and Kristin were able to join us for a short weekend as they both have started new jobs recently and could only squeeze a day or so off.  Regardless, they had a great time and enjoyed having them down the hall from us.      

 

The first day we arrived, we enjoyed the grounds of the The Ritz at Kapalua.  Just gorgeous.  Devin found out about a road a few miles west of the property and the concierge told us it was treacherous and the rental car companies do not suggest driving on the road.  That was enough to get Devin in the car and headed that way with Nikon Camera in tow.  Having cut out teeth on Rising To The Sun Road in Glacier National Park as well as several logging roads in the Cascade Mountains, Rockies, and Canadian Rockies, this road was a cake walk.

 

There were a few places where we got out and a 30-40 knot wind was howling (It was unusually windy all week long) and without warning it would change direction 180 degrees, which made it fun to take pictures from cliff's edge.  There was a series of shots Devin got while Jack was holding her waist and I was holding her monopod.  

 

We made it back and had room service as Devin was wiped out and nearly fell asleep mid meal.  She had those basset hound blood hound eyes, she was adorable.  It was great having the both of them with me.

 

As the week moved on we got to the beach almost every day and I discovered why fat old men should not body surf.  Well you couldn't call it body surfing, really.  It was more like a blubbery cadaver washing ashore.  Even the helicopter tours were circling the beach thinking it was an albino whale communing ashore.  Rumor had it that Jean Michelle Cousteau was enroute to make a speech about the rare albino whale sighting but could not find anyone to sponsor his trip.  

 

Devin kindly got me a rash guard.  Now a rash guard is another word for a polyester shirt that covers enough of your corpulence as to not put other beach goers from enjoying lunch.  So in a matter of minutes I went from albino whale to orca.  The seals in the area paid me much respect from that moment on.

 

Devin, was on a steady diet of Mai Tais, (she liked dark and light rum blended) and eventually gave way to her primal bearings and secured a ukulele.  Thanks to the folks at Lahina Music (On Hwy 30 if you are in the neighborhood.), Devin has a nice Tenor Uke.  She has already learned 3 chords.  (One more than Johnny Cash).  She really does seem to enjoy the thing.

 

Before signing off, we will leave you with with another Hawaii, story.  We arrived at LAX with more luggage than brains, but got everything checked in and Devin had to visit the facilities.  On her way out of the restroom she bumped into a 35ish year old lady.  Devin came over to me and said, that lady over there is an actress.  Sure enough, she looked familiar to me as well.  Neither of us could think of her name.

 

We eventually made out way to the gate and boarded.  Now please keep in mind, the last time I flew from Hawaii, I sat next to Rachel Hunter.

 Rachel

We I went into travel mode as Devin and Jack got settled.  Travel mode for me is head back and eyes closed until take off.  I was on the aisle and the seat next to me was empty though there was a bag already there.  As I was in travel mode, I was a little startled when the passenger next to me was climbing into their seat and I was staring at her posterior.  (Easy everyone she was wearing slacks.)  As she sat down and looked over, it was the actress Devin had bumped into.  We struggled for several minutes before a beautiful little 4 year old called out Aunt Sara.  Devin immediately got out her iPhone (Still on the ground, don't worry.)  and finally scored.  I was sitting next to Sara Paulson.

 Sara

She turned out to be a great neighbor.  We only spoke a bit and she was very nice and kind.  She was playing the role of aunt Sara and it came natural to her.  She did get excited as she was reading a gossip magazine and she tapped my should to show me a picture of herself and and giggled.  She said, "I didn't even know I was in this issue."  It was cute. 



The Week Ahead

 

You will have to wait till tomorrow as it is now 11:07 and time for me to wrap up.  I can tell you the Dow looks to open way down as futures are indicating a 90 drop at the opening.  The entire world is reacting to the miserable job report on Friday.  Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and the 1250 level.  If it breaks that with any  conviction, we could see another 3-7% down.

 

We will take an inventory tomorrow night to see how we did in May.  We pulled nearly everyone out of positions by the 10th or 11th.  We called the current correction (with a lot of help from our friends at IBD and MarketSmith) on May 2nd.  See the date below the red flag over there to the top right?

 

We also explained our gradual position in VXX which is really moving well for us and a few accounts that trade on margin and had the cash to play.  The rest of the accounts are forced to sit on the sidelines and wait for the carnage to end.  

 

With the current string of lackluster economic reports, watch the gold bugs start to twitch waiting for the Federal Reserve to react by talking about QE III.  Then you might see a consistent improvement in gold and silver.  At the moment, billions are leaving metals and seeking treasury save haven.  How can you tell?  Look at the ten year yield.  It hit 1.43% or so on Friday?  People, including the big casino managers on Wall Street are scared.  Volatility will continue to rise and our VXX play that was down 89% just two weeks ago is in positive territory and headed north.  The tricky part will be choosing when to take the profit.  

 

I will get something to you tomorrow.  Until then, if you haven't taken profits and taken some, if not all your money off the table, you might consider it as this looks to get a bit worse before it gets better.     


Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
Since 5/2/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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