BAGAKOAA; 2 April 2012 USA Number 1

Post 623 CLICK HERE To See Past Posts

April/2012

USA number 1, CA number 1

 

Ok I will get to the funny family stuff here in a minute, but there are some important stuff to bring to your attention.

 

The USA in number 1. I know they said that about 37 times during the Country Music Awards show last night, but that is not what I am talking about. I am talking about the world leader. Yes the US is now the world leader in corporate income tax. You see Japan lowered their top rate to 38.01%. That was after the UK had lowered its rates to the 24% range. The US now has the highest corporate tax rate in the world with the top rate at 39.2%. But it gets better, as we are one of the few countries left in the world that has taxes on repatriated revenue from overseas. Just so you can grasp that, last year Steve Balmer from Microsoft was chastised by shareholders for floating 20 year bonds (debt) at 2.4% instead of using the 40 billion cash on Microsoft's Balance Sheet. That added tax works out to about 10.2%. So he could get money for 2.4% for 20 years or get it now and pay an additional 10.2% (or more). He ain;t no dummy. (In an effort of full disclosure, great arguments can be made for or against a repatriation tax.) This does not just affect giant companies like Microsoft. PADI is a small business and we must carefully analyze the most efficient way to move already taxed dollars in from The UK, Europe, or Asia Pacific as we get taxed when we bring monies back into the US.

 

Now I am really blessed because California is number 1. Yes it looks as though voters in California are going to support Governor Jerry Brown's efforts to tax the upper end of earners at the 13.3% rate. That would put us West Coaster's at the highest level in the US.

 

According to today's IBD, California State Senator Bob Huff was quoted as saying "There is nothing more portable than a millionaire and his money." That is the point of providing this information. Please remember the quote we shared here a couple of weeks ago, attributed to Margaret Thatcher. "Socialism is great, till you run out of wealthy people." New Jersey learned this lesson well as their 2004, 2.6% tax hike relocated an estimated 70-90 billion in wealth out of the state between 2004-2009.

 

Now we can look at Warren Buffet and say he wants to pay more taxes. He does not think it is fair that he pays less taxes than an administrative assistant working at Berkshire Hathaway. (Warren owns about 26% of BRK/A). Obviously he is talking about a percentage basis. He actually paid 7 million in taxes in 2010. (BRK/A paid 5.6 billion in US taxes.) His investment strategies lean towards the conservative side and he holds onto investments forever. That assumes he has some non taxable income via government bonds. We can also assume that his income is mostly derived from dividends that are taxed at the 15% level as they are capital gains. Any other gains would also be capital gains taxed at 15%. So his effective tax rate might be 13% and the administrative assistant might be 22-28%.

 

Warren, please feel free to write a bigger check to the government. If we back into the number, we might estimate he earned 52 million dollars in 2010. Just go ahead and pay them 15 million and it would be more fair, or just move to California as Jerry has your problem solved.

 

Social Media Fun

 

It's funny now a days with folk spewing their political freedoms on their Facebook page. About 8 months ago I had the chance to help a graduate from college start their trek for finding a job. The first thing I did was to visit their Facebook page.

 

Now he had some very conservative opinions and was proud of the fact that he and his family were staunch Republicans. While applauded his familiarity with the Constitution, I had to warn him that employers will check his Facebook page as part of the screening process. He had alienated 45% of the employers in Southern California and god forbid he wanted to work in the Bay Area.

 

I strongly suggested he keep his political rants to himself until he had attained a station in life where he did not depend on others to earn a decent wage. Then I asked him to take the pictures from his recent Las Vegas trip where he was drinking tequila shooters from the navel of a semi-clad woman off his Facebook Page as well. I warned him if he did not keep his political opinions in check and tone down his extreme life style, he would be doomed to become the Governor of California.

 

Home Again

 

We had a normal day today, as normal as we get. While I was gone, we had a little spring appear in our garage. Under our new fancy garage floor, there was a puddle of water forming (not to be confused with the puddle we had last week which was a leak from a chimney installation.). Now Devin had to deal with that while I was cleaning up mice raisinettes in the Utah pantry.

 

(Guys- do not call your wife and complain about 40 mile an hour winds while fly fishing in Utah while she is dealing with a water leak bubbling out of the floor of your new garage as she will not provide you comfort and solice in your moment of discomfort. Most of all DO NOT send a picture from river side showing your smiley face and a sunny sky and snow covered mountains behind you. Trust me on this one.)

 

Anyway, I got Jack to school and headed to work. During the weekend, I received a nice blog from one of our readers Sharon who did a nice piece on Gluten and Gluten Free diets. (I just noticed that Gluten look a lot like Glutton Mmmmm.) My daughter has been avoiding gluten for about 3 months now. (For those that need a primer I recommend Sharon's "Survey Of One" blog. I have provided a link off there to the right in the tool box. She does really good stuff and is a lot more professional than I. She does real research.) But I digress.

 

Anyway my intent was to have my spinach and egg bagel in a tortilla in order avoid gluten. (I know now flour tortillas have gluten.) I walked in put my Kindle and hat down and walked over to order and they had already made my bagel. I will have to start going to a new breakfast place to avoid gluten. In the interest of health I only ate 75% of my bagel. It could have been 76%, I am not sure. Please read about gluten celiac disorders.

 

How did they know?

 

Now for a rare Devin moment before we get to the stock stuff. As I said we watched the CMA awards last night on television. I was working on the blog and Devin decided to record the rest of the awards so she could go get her bath. She was gone about 35 minutes. When she came back of course she wanted to go back to where she had left. She started rewinding and noticed a little black mark on the bar on the TV that showed where the stop points were on the recording. She then asked me, "Is that black mark where I left the room?"

 

 

The minute she said even she erupted in laughter. I replied, "Yes dear, they know when you leave the room and mark it on the scroll bar." It was really funny. The black market happened to be the top of the hour, in this case 9:00PM. It was funny.

We will start out tonight with our portfolio update sent out earlier today to the Salve Lucrum Family.

 

 

Boys and Girls

 

You should note, we hoisted a yellow flag last night in the blog. The distribution days are mounting indicating quite a bit of institutional selling. As the IBD confirmed this morning, we are in an "uptrend under pressure".

 

The market took off pretty good as the manufacturing number came in strong, even stronger than we had guessed last night in the blog. To be fair we missed the call on construction spending as it was a teeny tiny down from what we called. The market blew off some nasty employment data and currency drops and lower prices in Europe, which surprised us. There is a word for rising unemployment, falling prices, and a weakening currency. Deflation. Not a good thing.

 

Let's look at our core holdings and see how they did compared to the overall market. The Dow finished up .4%, the Nasdaq up .9% (Thank You AAPL), and The S&P 500 was up .75%.

 

MSFT

 

It was up but not at market levels. There was a lot of noise today but nothing we can put our fingers on.

 

XOM

 

Oil was up XOM was up. No news.

 

CELG

 

At market levels today, but Barclay's confirmed their positive rating and raised their target price up to 86 a share. CELG closed at 78.20 today.

 

UNFI

 

In line.

 

AAPL

 

It was up about three percent. We suggested the bad news about their supplier might be a buying opportunity and it was.

 

MGRC

 

A little shy of the market. No News.

 

GWW

 

They doubled the market, but it was due to the good manufacturing report. They go hand in hand.

 

ACET

 

Way up today about 4% and except for a nice plug on CNBC, I cannot find any reason why? Volume was almost double the average which implies a lot of the casino managers were making bets on this stock. We will take it.

 

LMT

 

In line with the market. There were rumors last week that Canada was going to cancel some F-35s. With the direction and volume today we would have to guess that was just a rumor. We will see.

 

Ok, that is the wrap for the day. I want you to know that we will be taking some profit over the next several days. Here is our reasoning and we are talking about the main account, not necessarily yours. President Obama and Nancy Pelosi have some great ideas as to how to use my tax money so I am going to generate some cash so we can pay our taxes. We also feel the market has gotten a bit hot a bit fast. The Nasdaq is up 18% in three months. We are seeing corporate profits shrink. This is to be expected after coming off some nasty years, but it is a cause for concern. Keep an eye as AA Alcoa kicks of the second quarter on the 10th.

 

 

So if you see us sell some of your babies, it me doing what no one should ever do, time the market.

 

Since this is running long, we will save our first quater summary for tomorrow or the next day or when ever. 

 

 

 

Salve Lucrum 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
Since 3/30/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

Tool Box

 

Salvay And Lewcrum Explain

 

Market Direction

  
  
  
  
IBD 
                           Survey Of One
Blog
  
  
 
 
hannas