March 11, 2012 Provocative Titles

BAGAKOAA; 11 March 2012 Provocative Titles

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March/2012

Very interesting. In looking at our traffic and click threws, it seems that people like the Salvay Lewcrum avatars and provocative titles more than mundane titles. It will be interesting to see if you thought Provocative Titles is a provocative title?

The rest of our weekend was truly wonderful. Saturday, we made it to the club for breakfast with the guys and all the guys were there, so it was fun. After that, we went home to fix up the back yard for a BBQ. Yes boys and girls it is that time of year.

Now Devin went to the store as we did execute little chores around the back yard. As soon as she got home we started marinating the chicken. By noon we had 34 pieces and parts of chicken marinating in a mix of store bought BBQ sauce, a couple of shots of Jack Daniels, Orange Juice, enough garlic to choke your average Italian, sliced lemon, and Montreal Chicken Seasoning. We kept turning that every hour on the hour.

Then it was out back to clean up the furniture for the first time this year, (OK I think Devin has cleaned a few times, but it was my first time this year.) While we were cleaning, Devin was trying out her new swimmers snorkel. This is a snorkel that goes straight up from your mouth, not to the side like a skin diving snorkel. She liked it but insisted it was too long and she was sucking in too much carbon dioxide.

Rather than having physiology discussion that I would have lost anyway, it was quicker and easier for us to go and cut 4 inches off the snorkel. After all we a have tool room now and a brand new Kobalt Hack saw. That is perfect for cutting the plastic snorkel.

We raced to garage and quickly unsheathed by beautiful blue Kobalt Hack Saw and commenced sawing. The blade slid across the plastic like resigned horse hair across a Stradivarius. While that was a beautiful simile, it is not a good thing when you are trying to cut. We could not figure out why the blade would not bind in the plastic snorkel. After about 5 tries, we were ready to ask Devin for help. Then we realized the saw was new and there was this pistol like grip and when you loosened the trigger, the blade relaxed and you could flip the blade so the teeth were down. We were trying to cut the plastic with the back of the blade. I do not recommend that maneuver boys and girls.

Minutes later Devin was swimming against the jets with the shortened snorkel in her mouth saying "nuuuhg jkaahmm ummsss gaan nummm mimmm la." Now I work in the scuba industry so I understand snorkel speak. She was saying, "Thank you my loving husband. You are so good to me to cater to my every whim every minute of every day. I do not know how you do it. What an incredible man. I am so lucky to have you in my life." At least I think that is what she was saying.

Then as the time came to greet our guests, my daughter brought Man Child home after a day of homework and garage sale. Yes my daughter likes to hold garage sales. We think it's great that she is looking for ways to generate some jingle. However when she let's her brother buy crap at her garage sale, come on. Devin and I have worked very hard and spent 35 years getting that crap out of the house, that last thing we need to do is to see my child entering our him with it all over again.

Now, here is this child who has a Kindle fire, at least two iPods, an iPad, and a few other personal electronic devices and he was mesmerized by a Sony Cassette Walkman while holding a couple dozen cassette tapes. Maybe we can get it out of the house in another 20 years for our grandchildren to discover it at my sons garage sale.

The BBQ was a lot of fun we had kids in the pool and reasonable quantities of wine were consumed. I did not partake until I had all 34 pieces of chicken ready to be brought in and kept warm. Then it was time for some Caymus Special Selection Cab. While I enjoyed that I threw 16 ears of corn pre buttered and salted wrapped in foil. Just throw them on the fire for about 30 minutes and viola, great corn on the cob.

It was a great evening and even with the time change last night we bounced out of bed and made it to breakfast with the guys. It has been a great weekend.

Each weekend must end creating the new week ahead of us. We had plenty of time to read Barron's and the IBD and watch Friday's Mad Money. We know what the 14 key economic data points are next week. We know the 26 or so relevant earnings calls coming out next week. We know all of that, but we don't have a solid feel for the direction of the market this coming week. Usually, with some degree of accuracy we go out on a limb and say a point up or two points down.

Let work through each day one at a time.

Monday

Cramer wants to get the earnings call from CLNE to get a read on the nat gas market. So? We also get to see how badly overdrawn we are in the checkbook. Not my check book. We haven't bounced a check in years. Ok that is not exactly true, we did bounce a check a couple of weeks ago, but it was a whopper. When we bounce a check, we don't muck around. The treasury budget report comes out and we get to see how big the deficit grew. Not really a market mover but worth keeping an eye out for. Look for PNY Piedmont Nat Gas to miss tomorrow as all the nat gas fold had a very mild winter and the lack of cold caused a lack of profit.

Tuesday

Chevron has an analyst meeting and it should be interesting as to the feel for the energy sector. We also have some retail reports that are looking for some nice numbers. We are thinking that once you back out the autos, the number will make Mr. Market unhappy. MED Medifast reports earnings and a lot of folk are expecting them to make up for last quarters lousy report. Stocktwits, Motely Fool, and the Journal are all saying beat. WE DO NOT OWN MED, but when that many people like a stock, we see disappointment. Look for a meet or miss.

Wednesday

FSS Federal Signal reports earnings (or lack there of on Wednesday). They customize fire trucks and ambulances and other municipal type vehicles. (Does that sound like a fun market to be in for the last three years. Not one of their customers have a dime.) They have debt up the siren and things do not look good. I am watching it to see if municipalities are starting to spend money. (Keep in mind PADI has a division that sells high school books.) Mortgage Purchase applications get reported along with the oil inventory report and import export prices. We can't get a volatile read on any of those. Look for a flat day, barring any Eurodrama.

Thursday

We have initial jobless claims and they should continue to fall. We have the Philadelphia Fed report. The smart folk are thinking it will continue to climb and we think it will take a breather this month and disappoint a lot of folk. Look for a down day.

Friday

We have consumer price index which should go up a bit even after backing out food and fuel. Industrial production is guessed to be down, which flys in contrast to the Philly Fed and Empire State expectations. (That is a real mixed message)

So our guess is a down week, say 1.5%. Again we do not have a lot of confidence in that guess, but that is how I am reading the tea leaves.

Take A Generic and Call Me In the Morning

As promised we spent some time reading the last two 10Qs for ACET. Here are the SEC links to those reports if you want to play along.

Dec (Year End) 2011 Earnings

Sep 2011 Earnings

We found no real surprises there good or bad. We did see (and having been seeing this a lot in recent filings) a cloud of accounting regulation changes that might make historical comparatives tricky at best. The most common citings are Amendments to Achieve Common Fair Value Measurement and Disclosure Requirements in U.S. GAAP and IFRSs, Presentation of Comprehensive Income, Presentation of Comprehensive Income, and Balance Sheet (Topic 210), Disclosures about Offsetting Assets and Liabilities. Now each SEC filing for every publically held company MUST explain how the new rules and regs will impact them. We as share holders have the burden of trying to figure out we might compare Q1 2012 to Q1 2011.

We will not pretend to know how to do that, but since we are only dealing with a handful of core accounts, I am comfortable knowing there are those who do an adequate job of that kind of forensic review. After reviewing the two quarters as I say, we still like the stock. The only negative things we could see were forward looking comments such as, " . . global spending for medicines will reach nearly $1.1 trillion by 2015, reflecting a slowing compound annual rate of growth of 3 - 6 percent over the next five years. This compares with 6.2 percent annual growth over the past five years."

Similar cautionary statements could be implied in the other two key segments of the company, specialty chemicals and agricultural protection. We will be adding to this position this week after seeing what this 4% pop on Friday does to the volume and direction of the stock.

Keep an eye on your stops and let's have a great week.

Salve Lucrum

Since 12/21/2011

BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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