BAGAKOAA; 22 February 2012 Give Me A D

Post 597 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsFebruary/2012

My absence last night can be explained. Devin and I were enjoying the company of some good friends who do not like their name used in the blog. Ooooooo, so mysterious. But I will respect their request. By the time we got home, it was too late for me to focus on writing something intelligent. (Yes I know it is presumptuous of me to think anything I write is intelligent.)

 

We enjoyed a fabulous meal at Hannah's. We never get tired of going there. I had my usual six ounce filet of heaven with Brussel sprout risotto and a couple of glasses of 2006 Merus Cab Blend. It was great night.

 

Now we do occasionally eat elsewhere. Monday night, we got the Kids (Ryan and Kristin) and Man Child and we went to a new watering hole called Embarcadero Bistro (I think). I was not impressed at first because the two previous food purveyors were OK, but the place always seemed a bit cold and non-intimate. (Yeah I was afraid MS word was going to underline that word in red, but I like it any way.)

 

The waiter was a bit too casual and untrained, but quickly brought out some snapper ceviche. For those unfamiliar, you take a nice clean white fish or conch or shrimp, add some fresh squeezed citrus (Lemon/Lime), some cilantro, tomato, white onion, cucumber, some Serrano chili to give it a bite, chop everything up, set in the fridge for at least 4-6 hours and the citrus actually cooks the fish. Serve it with some tortilla chips and viola, a great starter of meal. Well This place did a very good job. I had an unremarkable Philly steak sandwich, but Ryan raved about his potatoes wrapped salmon. Everyone enjoyed the meal and while I am still not impressed with the ambiance (or lack there of) we agreed we would come back again.

 

I would go back for the ceviche. Now if another place close by had a ceviche plate, m m m m m m. Hope Sean is reading this tonight. Dave read this to Sean please.

Today we got a couple of notes as to why we did not do a blog last night. Now you know. We did take a few minutes to read last night.

 

Douglas, one of readers and recent guest gift person to my wife on Valentines, reminded me over the holidays of my annual reading of Machiavelli's, The Prince. Over the last twenty years of management I have always asked my direct reports to read The Prince, one a year. Last night was my turn, a couple of weeks late.

 

If you are not familiar with the book, it was written in 1513is and was originally meant for Guilliano de Medici as the Medici Family had come to power in Florence and Machievelli wanted to impress the incoming power of his understanding or political leverage. Guillano died and his Uncle became the power figure in 1516. Niccolo aka Nikki (Ok no one called him Nikki, but its easier to type than Niccolo Macheivelli.) dedicated the book to Lorenzo Medici.

 

In the 1500s power transfer were much more humane than say here in the US now a days. The populace was not exposed to month of painful mudslinging, mind numbing debates, and important conversations by candidates about how many times a candidate was married, is Mormonism really a religion, or the fact that one candidate was a (yes, have the children leave the room now!) hedge fund manager with a 68% success record. (Sorry if I offended you.)

 

No, in the 1,500s power transfers took place by folk riding through the country side cutting off arms, legs, heads and the guy with the most heads won. Simple and it did not take political super PACs raising enough money to help Greece get caught up on few late penalties. But I really really really digress.

 

Anyway if you have not read The Prince since you were a pimple laidened hormonally confused and sexually frustrated junior in high school (Sorry, flashback, whoa!), treat yourself and give the 72 pages or so a spin. Now Nikki has gotten a bad wrap over the years as the word "Machievellian" has a negative connotation. It means sinisterly manipulative. (Personnally I think that is a croc because I have met many people who are maliciously manipulative and think Machievelli is a designer from Florence.) If you read the book, and put the historic references in check, you will discover one of the best treatise on human nature ever written.

 

As you read about the various political power struggles and the actions of the individuals named, it becomes very easy to say, "Hey, my boss did that not more than a week ago.", or "My wife did that same kind of thing last weekend." Seriously, you can see examples of everyday interactions in almost every chapter of the book.

 

My favorite chapter is 23, Beware Of The Flatterers. This one hit home after I came to work at PADI and even more so after becoming the CEO. A prince (as the book defines a person acquiring new power) ". . . is so happily absorbed in their own affairs and indulge in such self-deception that it is difficult for them not to fall victim to this plague; and some efforts to protect oneself from flatterers involve the risk of becoming despised."

 

Anyway give it a read and you will look at the world a little differently.

 

Tonight, we had the pleasure of a homemade meal as Devin prepared some delicious tostadas. Ryan and Kristin and Man Child were all at the table and it is good to make the time to hang together a while. Towards the end of the meal we were in the midst of a great round of Jeopardy. Devin usually kicks our butt, but Lucy, the blind, deaf, diaper donned poodle kept us up most of the night. Devin had to stand out back in the dark while vision of coyotes danced in her head. Anywho, Devin was tired so it was close race between Kristin and I. I got a bible question in final Jeopardy. In Acts 1, Mathais replaced him at the end of the book of Acts. Who was Judas? Damn I'm good.

 

Give me a D.

 

Give me a D. Give me an E. Give me an L. Give me an L Give me an H. Give me a P. What's that spell? Really bad PC sales. Yeah over the last two sessions, Dell and HP have reported badly and DELL was down today about 6% and we expect that HP will be spanked tomorrow. So how do you make money on this news?

 

Ask why they did not make their quarter. The main reason is the drop in PC sales. (HP will probably get their stuff together and turn things around in the business service sector and get back into the printer game, but it will take Meg a few quarters to prove her worth.) Why are PC sales dropping. We are all using our smart phones and our tablets. Now if we could only think of a company that is strong in smart phones and tablets. Mmmmmm. Yeah you guessed it, AAPL. We have Apple in many of the portfolios. At 513, the stock has a high price, NOTE I did not say it is expensive. With the iPad revision (Might it be a little smaller and cheaper?) due out this year, and estimated 100 million iPhones in China this year and another iteration of the iPhone due out later this year, AAPL has 600+ written all over. DO YOUR HOMEWORK. We are long AAPL.

 

Investors have their blinders on.

 

Today, we got most of the economic data points wrong and since we were optimistic, the market should have had a sizeable drop. It did not. Ok it came down 27 points on the DOW. Look at what the market ignored (be it in light volume), poor housing numbers, anemic euro zone economic news, a growth concern out of China, but yet, investors held their own and did not panic. That could be a sign that our two month rally might not be fatigued as of yet. Regardless we did got account my account and tighten up all of our stops. If its been a few weeks for you, probably a good idea for you too.

 

We also started a new position today (although it is too early to say it's a core holding). I believe I mentioned it about a week or so ago. EPAY Bottomline Technologies (de), Inc. provides electronic payment, invoice, and document automation solutions worldwide. Its solutions are used to streamline, automate, and manage processes and transactions involving global payments, invoice receipt and approval, collections, cash and document management, risk mitigation, reporting, and document archive. The company's products include WebSeries, a transaction banking platform that enables users to leverage a Web-based interface for the origination and process of inbound and outbound payments; and Legal exchange that integrates with claims management, and time and billing systems to automate legal invoice management processes.

 

IBD has the stock rated 97 and fundamentally is in great shape. It has no debt, 3.63 cents a share in cash, and is a true growth story. The chart is real sexy as it held a 192 trading range and set up for real pretty buy point at 28.33. We are currently 1% over the buy point so it's a safe strike range. We are in at 28.50 and have a stop at $26.25. We are looking for a 20% win by June at which time we will look at the quarterlies and the chart to decide whether to take some profits.

 

The Green Flag is flying so keep looking for the next best thing. Thank you for the ideas you have sent in. If you want to see some of the ideas I have been sent, here are few;WYN, CAT, UA, LQMT, SXCI, AND MG.

 

I just realized it is 11:00 and we need our beauty sleep. No Art tonight, but I will leave you with one of the funniest videosI have seen in quite some time. Thank you Douglas, BTW Hello Martin!

 

http://youtu.be/KtFyoP8OHlg      

 

 Salve Lucrum  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
Since 12/21/2011
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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