BAGAKOAA; 17 February 2012 Rumors of My Demise . . .

Post 594 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsFebruary/2012
Rumors Of My Demise . . . .

 

First off, thank you for the several messages I received asking if I was OK. I had not posted since Tuesday. It has been a really busy week, personally and professionally. Then I got tagged with a nasty head cold or sinus infection. But again thanks for asking about me. While I was not posting I was gleaning information throughout the week to post about.

 

I'd also like to thank those who offered to start a Bromance with me on Wednesday nights at Hannah's. Even a couple of ladies made that offer which might re-define Bromance. Thank you for your care and concern.

 

Our big secret surprise for Valentines went really well. Here is the back story. Over the last 15 years, I have celebrated Valentines in the company of one Mr. Douglas Nash, colleague, friend and confidant, 7 of those 15 years. February is usually a busy travel month for me and Douglas and I have enjoyed Valentines in Moscow twice, Pretoria, once, Birmingham once, London once, and greater Bristol twice. Devin asked about a month ago if I would be home for Valentines or enjoying Douglas's company this year. She knew I was home so she was just being a bit cheeky.

 

However she did give me a great idea. I called Douglas and asked if he would be willing to pop over from Bristol and surprise my wife at a nice dinner (The Studio at the Montage) on Valentines Night. He was skeptical at first not knowing how Devin might respond to Douglas hogging such a romantic moment. I assured him that she would be blown away to look up and see him at the table.

 

As we arrived, we walking into the bar area and I spotted Mr. Nash first. He was looking debonair as usual. It took Devin till about 15 feet away from the table and in this very swanky fanky restaurant, she let out the most uninhibited scream once she recognized it was Douglas. Everyone in the place thought he was some kind of celebrity and on a few good moments from far away he does have a resemblance to Sir Richard Branson. (Ok Douglas is cuter than Branson, but the closest celebrity I could think of.) It turned out to be a fabulous night.

After taking care of some business in the following morning, I took a personal day, knowing the Douglas was a history buff and took him to the Richard Nixon library where we killed a couple of hours and Douglas left a little better informed about one of our more notorious Presidents. (Here is a trivia question for you. What is the largest selling item in the Nixon Library Gifts shop? Drop me a note if you know.)

 

Later that afternoon we headed back to the house, enjoyed a drink and the family, Ellen and Douglas enjoyed an evening at Hannah's. We sent him on his way back to the hotel in Laguna and he headed home on Thursday.

 

I finally acknowledged that this cold had the better of me and went to see our doctor and am now on all kinds of antibiotics and cures. (Here was a great idea passed on by the doctor. He asked if we had a croc pot. Which we do. He said go home, turn the croc pot of low with water in the pot, drop in a had full of wash cloths and as you need it take one out and sweat your face with the hot wash cloth to break up all the crud in your sinuses. Cleaver use of a croc pot I thought.)

 

Today, while still feeling under the weather, we wanted to drop a note so you know I had not left the country again. With that, here is what has gone on since my demise.

They Like Me, They Really Like Me  

 

We had a greatest readership on Tuesday with 80.0% of readers opening the blog at least once in the 24 hours after it was sent. Not sure what was so special about that one, but it did invite a few folk to ask some great questions. A few people liked the simple explanation of the mechanics of a covered call. Just as reminder this is what we said:

 

"Since we are in a murky situation and a probably stagnant situation with oil, I took advantage of the situation by selling March call options against my long position in the Salve Lucrum.

 

Now pay attention boys and girls. For every 100 shares of XOM we own we sold one March 17 $87.50 call option for .51 cents a contract. That mean that someone paid me $51.00 for every 100 share I own. The stock is selling for $84.67. I am betting that Exxon will be worth less than $86.99 ($87.50-.51) on March 17th. If it does, I get to keep the 51 cents a contract and keep my stock. If it is worth more than $86.99 it will be called away on March 17th and I keep the profit and the premium, but must sell my stock.

 

I am looking for these opportunities in all of my long positions in all of my core holdings because I think we are in a one week to two week doldrums period. OPTIONS ARE NOT FOR EVERYONE. KNOW YOUR RISK AND REWARD RATIO BEFORE EXECUTING A COVERED CALL SALE. Call me if you want a better description of what I am doing."

 

One of our readers, Ron asked a great question:

 

"Thanks for the explanation of covered call options. You indicate you are looking to do this for all of your core holdings since the market appears to be in the doldrums, for the time being. Let's say, for example, the market really took off (upside) between now and the option expiration date. Does that mean your "core holdings" would then be decimated, as you would have to sell those shares?"

 

The simple answer would be yes you do risk some gains if there is a huge short term upswing. But you would have gains none the less. Let's take a look at the example we used to describe what we did.

 

For argument sake, let's say I bought 100 shares of XOM at $84.50 a share on December 22, 2011. After two months, we felt that the stock has been a bit dormant and will be for the next 4-12 weeks. (Now in my book that means less than a 4-5% swing in any direction.) I decided to sell 1 March 17th $87.50 Call option for the 100 shares I own for .50 a contract and I executed that contract on the 14th of February. The stock was roaming around $84.50 on the day I did the contract.

 

Here is what the trade does for me. It puts 50 dollar in my account because I sold the call for .50 for a 100 share contract. I must sell 100 shares at $87.50 if the owner decided to exercise the call option. Remember they are buying the call option to buy 100 shares of XOM at $87.50 a share on March 17th. In order for that trade to make sense to the buyer, the shares have to sell for 88.00 (87.50 + the .50 for the option) or higher near March 17th. It would not make sense to buy the shares at 88.00 if the stock is selling for less than that. I am betting that XOM will not escalate 4.1% over the next 21 trading days. So best case scenario is the stock goes near 87 and I see a nice unrealized gain in my holding and I get to keep the $50.00 I got for selling the call. That would be $50.00 on an investment of $8,450.00 or .6% for one month or 7.1% a year.

 

Let's take a look at the worst case scenario. The stock goes to 88.01 on March 17th and the buyer of the call wants to exercise the option. I still keep the 50.00 and I get the profit from my entry point of $84.50 to $87.50 as a realized gain because I HAVE to sell the stock. That would be a realized gain of 350 dollars (300 for the stock and 50 for the option) against the purchase price of $8,450 also known as 4.1% in two months time. I'll do the math for you that is a 24.8% annualized gain.

 

Now to clarify, I would not do this with all of the core holdings. Each one has to be evaluated. First, does the stock have options? If so are they weekly, monthly or quarterly options? Are they tradable options with lots of volume? You don't want a roach hotel option, easy to get in and hard to get out. What is the spread on the option price? That is the difference between the bid and the ask. Determine how far "out of the money" can you go and still make a decent return. For example I could have sold April call options against XOM for 21 cents and May contract for 9 cents, but the return were not worth the time and effort. Do you have a good feel for where the market is going over the next month? Do you have a good feel for what your stock might do over the next month? You have to answer these questions for each stock.

 

In summary, the better you know the market and your core holdings the less risk you take in determining if a covered call sale can add to you portfolio value.

 

I will be watching the close of the market today. The market is mixed at the moment as there seems to be a sense of cautious optimism with Greece maybe working out a deal, but more importantly we have has some decent economic news this week. Today is an options expiration day and volume is way up. We would not be surprised to see a day end rally because of some short squeezing taking place. Remember when a bunch of people short a stock and the market goes up as it has over the last two months, the short position have to limit their downside buy taking their loss. As a result they have to buy the stock to get out of their short position. That large volume buy can sometimes make the market escalate. That is what we call a short squeeze. If you are long in an equity, that is good news.

Salve Lucrum  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
Since 12/21/2011
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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